Perhaps never in the history of Pakistani politics has so huge a forgery been staged as has been the case with its February 2024 elections. If anyone had thought General Asim Munir was anything short of the best strategist Pakistan has produced, it’s been proved wrong. His navigational skills through the worst storm that the military-politico clique faced with the emergence of Imran Khan displays his acumen at steering the ship in the worst of circumstances. Notwithstanding the controversies about the election that will continue to echo, it’s a lot more of the same for Pakistani citizens. The army will continue to call the cards, while Bilawal Bhutto and Shehbaz Sharif will, hopefully, keep the ship afloat. However, it would be prudent to take a measure of the performance of various parties, including those with an umbilical jihadi connection, before an assessment of Pakistan in the next couple of years is attempted.
Performance of Political Parties in Polls
The National Assembly has 336 seats, of which 266 are directly contested. Sixty seats are reserved for women and 10 for minorities. The province-wise distribution of seats is 141 seats in Punjab, 61 for Sind, 45 for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), 16 seats in Baluchistan, and three seats for the Islamabad Capital region. Over 128 million Pakistanis were eligible to vote in the 8 February elections. A party or a coalition needed 134 seats to reach a majority and be eligible for government formation.
A crackdown on PTI and its leader, Imran Khan, ensured that he and his party could not contest on party tickets. Imran, however, fielded his candidates as independents. Just prior to the election, Nawaz Sharif, the de-facto PML (N) leader, also returned to Pakistan after four years, and a host of cases against him were dropped.
The performance of the three major parties in the elections led to an ambiguous situation. Imran-led PTI-backed independent candidates won 93 National Assembly seats. PML-N (Nawaz Sharif’s party) won 75 out of 241 contested seats. PPP – Pakistan People’s Party (Bilawal Bhutto led) won 54 seats out of 248 seats it had contested in the National Assembly. The reserved seats in the National Assembly are given pro-rata based on the seats won by these parties in the elections.
Participation of Radical/Jihadist Parties
The trend of jihadist organisations floating political parties and trying to enter mainstream politics in Pakistan was witnessed even in the last elections to National and Provincial Assemblies in Pakistan. The trend continued in this election also. Parties, such as the Pak Markazi Muslim League (PMML), Jamaat-e-Islami Pak (JIP), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUIF), Pak Rah-e-Haq Party (PRHP), etc., did contest. However, their performance in the elections mainly was dismal. A few details about these parties throw some discernible facts:
Pak Markazi Muslim League (PMML)
PMML emerged before Pakistan’s general elections in 2024. This party is linked to Hafiz Saeed, a proscribed terrorist. PMML represents the Muslim League and is aligned with Hafiz’s Jamaat-ud-Daawa (JuD). Two relatives of Hafiz Saeed were among the PMML candidates fielded.
After being designated as a terrorist organisation and the banning of MML by the US in 2018, the Pak Markazi Muslim League (PMML) was floated for the 2024 elections. Seven members of MML were designated ‘International Terrorists’ by the US in 2018. A few of them contested in the recently concluded electoral campaign, 2024. These individuals were accused of involvement with Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attack. Four out of seven members, banned by the US, have contested elections from Punjab and Sindh assembly under the new Pak Markazi Muslim League (PMML) banner. Overall, the party contested 152 National and 327 Provincial seats. It failed to win a single seat in any of the constituencies.
Milli Muslim League (MML)
MML is the political face of JuD, which aims to transform Pakistan into a hard Islamic state. Kashmir’s merger with Pakistan is its other major plank. After protests in the run-up to the 2018 Pakistan elections, the Election Commission of Pakistan refused to recognise it as a political entity. MML candidates fought as part of a new political party, ‘Allah-o-Akbar Tehreek (AAT)’.
Jamaat-e-Islami Pak (JIP)
The party espouses an extreme religious stance. Members of the party held portfolios in previous Pakistani provincial cabinets. In the 2024 Pakistani general elections, it contested 235 seats and managed to win only five provincial seats from KPK, Sindh, and Baluchistan constituencies out of 520 contested seats.
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUIF)
JUIF is a hardline party based on the Deobandi School of thought that pursues the enforcement of Sharia. It contested all seats in its strongholds, KPK and Baluchistan province. The party contested 119 National and 328 Provincial Assembly seats. It has won four National Assembly seats and 18 Provincial seats: seven from KPK and 11 in Baluchistan.
Pak Rah-e-Haq Party (PRHP)
An Islamist religio-political party, the PRHP managed to win only one provincial seat from Baluchistan out of 93 seats contested but could not win any national assembly seat out of the 40 seats contested.
Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pak (TLP)
A far-right Islamic extremist religio-political party in Pakistan, it is known to protest against any change to Pakistan’s Blasphemy Law. In the 2024 General elections, the party contested for 205 National and 484 Provincial seats. However, it lost all the seats. Vis-à-vis its electoral performance in previous elections, its vote share has reduced drastically.
Pakistan: An Assessment and Prognosis
What happens in Pakistan is essential for its neighbours and relevant even for far-flung capitals. Being the epicentre of global terrorism, the Pakistani elections and the government that has taken over need to be evaluated. Are they a global threat? Will they continue to keep Afghanistan unstable, India on its guard, and madrassas afloat to deliver another generation of radicalised extremists to threaten peace and stability?
Stability in Pakistan?
At the domestic level, the major issue is whether the patchwork government will pass the stress tests that lie ahead. Will the marriage of rivals last under Gen Munir’s umbrella? How long can Imran be kept incarcerated while Asif Ali Zardari enjoys immunity?
Pakistani citizens have clearly rejected radicalised elements that have created political identities to join the mainstream. Some of these parties have lost vote share compared to their performance in the previous elections, while others have barely won the odd seat in the National or provincial assemblies.
Apparently, the new government will continue to be the lead player in the troika of the Political establishment, the Army, and the ISI that rules the Pakistani state. However, for the PTI of Imran Khan, inaction will pave the way for the erosion of the huge support base that they have been able to garner. This implies that the streets of Pakistan will continue to witness protests. It’s a situation that the Jehadi elements will take advantage of.
The difference between the situation today and Pakistan’s past is the remarkable lowering of the Pakistan Army’s image on the streets. The Generals are no longer viewed as saviours. Possibly, the only road ahead left for them is to raise the issue of an imminent Indian thereat and divert public attention.
Foothold Made by Political Parties Floated by Radical Groups
The election is a reflection of the people’s verdict against the jihadi establishment. Without exception, the far-right Islamic parties propagating Sharia have been emphatically defeated. Most of these parties are the political wings of terrorist organisations looking for political legitimacy. It’s a lesson that the jihadi leadership needs to analyse closely. The Islamabad dispensation also needs to take advantage of the situation and focus its resources on the terror groups.
The extreme right parties could not win even after fielding well-known personalities held in great esteem by the jihadists. The PMML candidates included Hafiz Talah Saeed and Hafiz Nek Gujjar @ Khalid Naik, the son and son-in-law, respectively, of Hafiz Saeed of LeT. Siraj-ul-Haq of JIP was a cabinet minister earlier but failed this time.
The sheer number of seats that these parties fought for and the peripheral wins they scored reflect the disillusionment of the Pakistani citizens with the hard-core Islamist Pakistani constituency.
Imran’s Future
The current military establishment fully perceives the risks should Imran leave the prison. He will possibly go the same way as many Pakistani leaders have been through, off late. He will be settled in another country and kept out of Pakistan. When the situation returns to some normalcy, he could come back and pick up the threads.
Overall, it can be stated that the Pakistani government’s foremost focus will be on surviving. Imran’s PTI will continue to take the fight to the streets. The Army will lose more repute as it attempts to limit PTI’s further consolidation. The divide between Pakistan’s provinces will likely widen, especially with Nawaz Sharif’s PML–N wresting Punjab from PTI in the elections. The possibility of a threat from India will characterise the tone and tenor of its leadership. The leadership will repeatedly refer to Kashmir. Pakistan will remain caught up in its time warp and a concern for its neighbours, especially India.
Brig SK Chatterji (Retd)
