The death of 61-year-old Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is perhaps the biggest bonanza reaped by the Israelis in their yearlong war against Hamas. Sinwar’s death, possibly one of the staunchest of all Hamas leaders, also opens up the avenues to peace, or, at least, a ceasefire accompanied by prisoner exchange. Post the death of the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, orchestrated by the Israelis in Tehran on 1st July 2024, peace has its best chance now in Gaza.
It’s essential to discuss Sinwar and how he lost his last battle. Sinwar was born in the Khan Yunis refugee camp, where he may have inherited a strong sense of uncompromising hatred toward Israelis. Refugee camps often foster such feelings, particularly among younger residents. In the early 1980s, he enrolled at the Islamic University of Gaza to study Arabic and began shaping the ideological foundation that would define his future.
In 1989, Sinwar was arrested after being convicted of murdering Palestinians thought to be working with the Israelis. He was finally released in October 2011. He was elected to the Hamas Political Bureau within months of his release. He was placed on the list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists by the US in 2015. He was the prime author of the 7th October Hamas assault, which straight away put him on the cross-wires of Israeli soldiers.
However, it was not a targeted operation that found him, but another routine operation in southern Gaza, where he got trapped in a house and was killed by soldiers from an Israeli training battalion. They identified him from his fingerprints, dental images and DNA samples.
The chances of peace or ceasefire in Gaza will depend heavily upon the man chosen by Hamas as its next leader. There are speculations that Mohammed Sinwar, the younger brother of Yahya Sinwar, currently the military commander of Hamas, is the obvious choice. However, having stayed next to his brother for most of the past year, whether or not he will have a more open mind and opt for peace is most suspect. Further, how long he will survive the Israeli hunt is questionable.
Most of the other top Hamas leaders are abroad, mainly in Qatar. Amongst others being speculated about is Mousa Abu Marzouk, the deputy chief of Hamas’ political bureau who helped found Hamas.
Khalil Al Hayya, Sinwar’s deputy, is another strong contender. He led the Hamas side in the recent ceasefire talks in Cairo, showcasing his diplomatic skills and making him a potential leader.
The death of Sinwar does throw open a chance for peace. Most of all, the Gazans don’t want this war anymore. The Israelis also want their government to focus on prisoner exchange. They want normalcy to return.
For Netanyahu, a second front has opened to the west along the Israel -Lebanon border. Israel needs to focus on Hezbollah, which is a much larger force. Further, the whole scenario could change if Israel decides to punish Iran heavily in its response to the 1st October missile attack.
The American President will be most eager about a ceasefire in the final days of his tenure at Washington. He cannot expect a better farewell sendoff than a ceasefire accord in West Asia.
Brig SK Chatterji (Retd),
Editor, BharatShakti.in
