North Korea may increase its troop deployment to support Russia’s war in Ukraine to as many as 100,000, according to analysts, raising alarm about growing regional instability and Pyongyang’s potential acquisition of advanced missile technology from Moscow in return.
“When North Korea initially sent around 10,000 troops, it was clear that replenishing depleted Russian units would require sending far more,” said Yang Uk, a senior analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, in an interview with This Week in Asia. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the total eventually reaches ten times that number.”
Yang noted that North Korea is leveraging its involvement in the Ukraine conflict to modernize its military forces, a move that exacerbates security risks for South Korea, the United States, and Japan.
Hypersonic Missiles and Russian Technology
North Korea’s test-firing of a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile earlier this week suggests a transfer of Russian missile technology as part of a broader deal between Moscow and Pyongyang. Analysts believe this deal includes military and economic benefits in exchange for North Korean troop deployments and other forms of support.
During a United Nations Security Council meeting on Wednesday, Deputy U.S. Ambassador Dorothy Camille Shea expressed concerns about North Korea’s increasing military capabilities. “North Korea’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war is enabling it to become more adept at waging war against its neighbours,” she warned, adding that Pyongyang could exploit wartime experience to expand its arms exports and secure lucrative military training deals.
Strategic and Regional Implications
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during a visit to South Korea on Monday, voiced concerns that Russia may extend its collaboration with North Korea to include space and satellite technology. This cooperation could have profound consequences, enabling Pyongyang to target critical American and South Korean assets, such as stealth bombers and ballistic missile systems.
North Korea appears to be upgrading its MiG-29 fighter jets and constructing a 3,000-ton frigate, likely with Russian assistance. These developments further enhance Pyongyang’s military posture and underline the strategic depth of its partnership with Moscow.
Kim Jong-un’s 2023 visit to Russia, which included tours of military facilities, a spaceport, and the Russian Pacific Fleet command, signalled his intent to deepen defence ties with President Vladimir Putin. Analysts say North Korean forces have played a significant role in helping Russia regain territory in regions like Kursk. However, this has come at a substantial cost to North Korean lives.
A Fragile Alliance
Despite the burgeoning military partnership, experts caution that the Russia-North Korea alliance may be short-lived. The closer ties with Moscow have strained Pyongyang’s relations with Beijing. Once the war concludes, Pyongyang will likely pivot toward mending ties with China, its traditional and indispensable ally.
As North Korea bolsters its military capabilities and deepens its geopolitical entanglements, the security challenges for its neighbours and the broader international community continue to grow.
Team BharatShakti
