![](https://bharatshakti.in/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/LT-BSI-Defence.gif")
Risks of nuclear escalation are rising as cyber, space and information warfare blur the line between conventional conflict and nuclear thresholds in South Asia, a new study by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has warned.
SIPRI said the risks around India-Pakistan nuclear posture have grown sharply. The reason is the spread of multi-domain operations involving cyber attacks, satellite disruption and information warfare.
The Swedish think tank paper, Addressing Multi-Domain Nuclear Escalation Risk, published on its website in January 2026, examined recent conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel’s military actions involving Iran and the India-Pakistan tensions.
The paper argues that non-nuclear actions, such as cyber intrusions, satellite interference, or precision strikes on critical systems, can now trigger escalation.
“Operation Spider Web marked a notable demonstration of the use of emerging technologies across multiple operational domains in the Russia–Ukraine war,” the paper said. It cited the cyberattack on the Viasat satellite network on 22 February 2022, which is likely to have targeted Ukrainian military communications.
SIPRI added that the Russia-Ukraine war, the May 2025 India-Pakistan crisis and Israel’s June 2025 operations in Iran show a rapidly changing battlefield. “The ongoing war… exhibits the rapidly evolving battlefield that is marked by convergence of technologies and the regular presence of multi-domain operations,” it said.
For India, SIPRI said this shift has direct implications. Military actions that appear limited on land, sea or air can now spill into cyber networks, satellites and information systems linked to nuclear command and control. In a fast-moving crisis, leaders may have only minutes to judge intent, increasing the risk of miscalculation.
The paper described South Asia as one of the fastest-escalating nuclear regions. Short conventional clashes, it said, can quickly produce nuclear signalling. SIPRI pointed to short decision timelines, limited crisis communication channels and frequent military contact between India and Pakistan as key vulnerabilities.
SIPRI warned that the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict was affected by artificial intelligence-driven disinformation and could have “easily spiralled” into a wider confrontation.
Referring to that crisis, the paper said, “AI-enabled disinformation could easily have spiralled into an extended conflict, with direct nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan a possibility.”
SIPRI warned that future crises could see even more effective disinformation campaigns. Such efforts, it said, could obscure battlefield realities and disrupt the strategic calculations of nuclear-armed states.
Describing the surge of fake content during Operation Sindoor, SIPRI said the information space became a “carnival of sensationalism”. Artificially generated material drove false narratives of military success and territorial gains in mainstream media outlets on both sides.
“Following the terrorist attacks near Pahalgam in Indian-controlled Kashmir in April 2025, AI-enabled disinformation could easily have spiralled into an extended conflict,” the paper said. It added that similar efforts in the future could “upend the strategic calculus of the nuclear-armed states”.
Despite these risks, SIPRI’s findings also underline that nuclear rhetoric remains restrained at the military level. During the recent India-Pakistan clash, nuclear weapons were not raised in formal military talks.
Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi said nuclear issues did not feature in Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) discussions. “There was no discussion on nuclear in the DGMO talks,” he said. He added that any nuclear rhetoric came from political or public statements, not from the military.
General Dwivedi also rejected the idea that conflicts move directly from sub-conventional warfare to the nuclear level. He said recent operations showed that conventional space can still be expanded and managed.
SIPRI’s paper suggests that while nuclear deterrence continues to hold, the growing role of cyber, space and information warfare is making crises more volatile. The challenge, it said, is no longer just avoiding nuclear use, but preventing rapid escalation driven by actions far short of it.
Ravi Shankar
Dr Ravi Shankar has over two decades of experience in communications, print journalism, electronic media, documentary film making and new media.
He makes regular appearances on national television news channels as a commentator and analyst on current and political affairs. Apart from being an acknowledged Journalist, he has been a passionate newsroom manager bringing a wide range of journalistic experience from past associations with India’s leading media conglomerates (Times of India group and India Today group) and had led global news-gathering operations at world’s biggest multimedia news agency- ANI-Reuters. He has covered Parliament extensively over the past several years. Widely traveled, he has covered several summits as part of media delegation accompanying the Indian President, Vice President, Prime Minister, External Affairs Minister and Finance Minister across Asia, Africa and Europe.
