Editor’s Note
In 2014, the Houthis overthrew the Yemeni government and captured Saana. With some ups and downs, the Houthis have since transformed into a reckonable force and can effectively prevent global shipping in the Red Sea. Iran and its Quds Force have played a pivotal role in developing its capabilities. The Chinese have also provided assistance. Houthis today are a serious threat that has led to the US and a few Western countries coming together to field their resources and limit the damage that Houthis have already inflicted. The article takes stock of the Houthi arsenal.
On 14 November 2023, General Yahya Sarea, Houthi military spokesperson, announced their intention to sink Israeli ships in support of Palestinians in the ongoing Gaza war. Five days later, Houthi militia members jumped out of a helicopter onto the deck of the Galaxy Leader, owned by an Israeli businessman. On 9 December, the Houthis declared their intention to expand the scope of their attack to include all ships heading to Israel. By mid-January 2024, the Houthis had fired over 100 missiles and drones on vessels with links to over 50 nations.
In response, in late 2023, the United States launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, which consisted of the maritime forces of the US and its major NATO allies, as well as a few others, including Bahrain and the Seychelles. In addition, the Biden administration placed the Houthis back on the list of ‘Specially Designated Global Terrorists’. On 19 February 2024, the European Union responded to the Houthi strikes by launching Mission Aspides. France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, and Greece have pledged to support the mission.
The Houthi strikes have impacted global shipping, and India is not impervious to these attacks. The impact on world trade will be substantial, hence the need to comprehend the rationale for Houthi’s actions. It is equally important to assess the Houthis’ military capabilities, which have developed over a decade in their wars with the West, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.
Houthis’ Attacks are a State-Building Exercise
Since 2004, the Houthis have been at war. Initially, they were involved in six rounds of brutal fighting with the forces loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Finally, they were able to capture the capital, Sanaa, in September 2014. The Houthis rise provoked Saudi Arabia and UAE, but they started receiving support from Iran and Hezbollah. Between 2015 and 2022, the group fought the coalition led by Saudis and Emiratis, supported by the US, UK, and France. These wars provided Houthis an opportunity to consolidate their power over much of Yemen. However, in recent years, the Houthis began losing some of their influence because of governance issues and a lack of economic progress in the country.
The ongoing Gaza war is an opportunity to regain their relevance and popularity within and outside the country, which has seen a decline in recent times and to build the inventory of military equipment with Iranian support.
This state-building opportunity could not have come to the Houthis at a more opportune time. The Houthis will likely continue to disrupt global trade until they can maximise the anti-Israeli sentiment to consolidate their power in Yemen without breaching Iran’s escalation calculus.
Impact on Global Trade
The impact of Houthi strikes in the Red Sea on global trade is significant. Approximately 12 per cent of international trade passes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, roughly translating to US $1 trillion worth of goods each year and representing approximately 30 per cent of all global container traffic. The strikes will result in the rerouting of ships around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing the transit time and the cost of insurance and transport.
Regarding India, preliminary estimates suggest a US $30 billion or 6.7 percent decline in exports from the previous fiscal year’s total of $451 billion.
Houthis’ Long Range Maritime Strike Capabilities
Much before the ongoing Gaza war, the Houthis had developed substantial military capabilities. The ability to undertake complex drone operations was amply demonstrated in the 14 September 2019 attack on Saudi ARAMCO oil refineries at Khurais and Abqaiq that the Houthis claimed to have staged.
During the current crisis, the Houthis have fired anti-ship ballistic missiles, a first in a conflict situation, have shot down two American MQ-9 UAVs, and a Houthi cruise missile was able to reach within a mile of an American destroyer before it was shot down. In all previous incidents, Houthi missiles have been intercepted at ranges of 8 to 10 miles. US CENTCOM has also announced that it has successfully conducted defensive operations against one unmanned underwater vessel (UUV), one unmanned surface vessel (USV) and three mobile anti-ship cruise missiles. These are serious military capabilities by any standards.
Since 2014, Iran’s Quds Force has helped Houthis develop military capability by assisting them in their UAV and missile programmes. Reportedly, they have helped Houthis stockpile these arsenals and develop capabilities to assemble from parts smuggled from abroad. The International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) has published an analysis of six anti-ship ballistic missiles and six anti-ship cruise missiles acquired from Iran since 2014.
In 2014, when Houthis took control of the capital city of Sanna, they acquired their first anti-ship cruise missiles, obsolescent Soviet-made P-21 and P-22- missiles and slightly more modern Chinese C-801 from the inventory of the Yemeni military. In the 1990s, Iran began upgrading Chinese missiles and produced a 120 km range Nour, 200 km range Ghader and 300 km range Ghadir. The group claims it has a 300 km range C-802s (named Al-Mandab 2) in its inventory. Houthis have also displayed an 800 km range anti-ship version of Quds/351 LACM during parades.
Houthis also have in their inventory a variety of anti-ship ballistic missiles. Those displayed during parades include 450 km-range Asef and 500 km-range Tankil. Both varieties of missiles have warheads weighing over 300 kg. In addition, Houthis have shorter 140 km-range Faleq, the Mayun, and the Bahr al-Ahmar. Houthis have also displayed S-75 (SA-2) surface-to-air missiles from Yemeni army stocks, which can be modified for an anti-ship role.
In addition to anti-ship missiles, Houthis have UAVs—Samad-2 and Samad-3—with explosive payloads of up to 18 kg. Samad-3 is likely to have a range of 1500 km and a top speed of 250 km/h. The UAV has a dorsal antenna, which possibly allows it to be controlled by an operator at the target end.
Houthis’ ISR Capabilities
Anti-ship missiles are ineffective without precision targeting capability. The Houthis used coastal radars for attacks in 2016. Three of these were destroyed by US Tomahawk attacks and are less likely to be used in the ongoing conflict.
Houthis have nil or extremely limited ISR capabilities in terms of radars, satellite images, and UAVs. Houthi missiles need to be guided to the general area of the target before onboard electro-optical/infrared seekers guide them in the terminal phase of the trajectory. Reportedly, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps ship Behshad, deployed in the region, has helped guide some of the missiles in attack.
Indian Interests
Houthis’ strikes against marine shipping vessels directly impact India’s exports. These strikes also provide an opportunity to assess various military technologies being employed by the warring parties.
Due to the ongoing crisis, India’s trade will likely decline 6.7 per cent in the current fiscal year. India has deployed over ten frontline warships with marine commandos in the region to protect its interests for surveillance and deterrence missions. Amidst the escalating crisis in the region, India has reached out to Iran and Russia, who have some influence over the Houthis.
India has initiated a process to acquire 31 MQ-9B UAVs for $3.99 billion. The Houthis have, as already stated, downed two MQ9s in November 2023 and February 2024. The ongoing conflict in the Red Sea will provide lessons regarding the vulnerabilities and operational employment of this expensive platform, which is likely to be inducted by the Indian Armed Forces shortly.
In addition, many of the anti-ship missiles being employed are of Chinese origin, albeit on the lower end of the technological spectrum. Their employment also holds lessons for India’s military.
Col Rajneesh Singh (Retd)
