Editor’s Note
Bangladesh is in a disturbed state, with reports of sectarian violence against minorities going on ever since the Sheikh Hasina government was ousted. It is obvious who is in control in that country now. Notwithstanding the legality of Hasina’s removal, it’s also apparent she will be out of Bangladesh politics for some time to come. Under the circumstances, it remains to be seen how the immediate neighbour, India, will respond to the situation.
On 5 August 2024, Sheikh Hasina was suddenly ousted from power in a surprising turn of events. She flew to India in a Bangladeshi military aircraft, where she was granted temporary refuge. It marked the end of a 15-year-long rule of the Awami League, which she headed as its undisputed leader. Her forced removal was a result of what initially started as a student-led protest, quickly expanding into a nationwide crisis. It happened even though she had resolved the initial grievance of the students relating to the removal of reservations. The reasons for her inability to control the protests are not fully known and will be debated for a long time to come.
Factors that Drove Her Removal from Power
Setting aside the manner and legality of her removal, the question is: did her exit reflect genuine popular public opinion, or did a select group with vested interests orchestrate it? This question assumes importance since Bangladesh was making notable economic progress under her leadership. However, had she become an autocrat, exploiting the country’s democratic institutions for her benefit, as her opponents alleged? These questions are complex, but it is a fact that Sheikh Hasina continued with Bangladesh’s legacy of vendetta politics and failed to take a conciliatory stance towards the opposition. Her government was often accused of electoral malpractice, repressive authoritarianism, and institutionalized corruption.
The Aftermath
The abrupt fall of the government resulted in a total breakdown of law and order, as there was no one in charge. As a result, there was an upsurge of violence against the supporters of the Awami League. The Hindu community, eight per cent of the total population, traditionally Sheikh Hasina’s sympathisers, bore the initial brunt of this violence. The Islamist radical groups also got emboldened and caused communal violence. These events also strained the India-Bangladesh relations as the caretaker government displayed clear anti-India bias in its dealings.
Indian Reaction
The developments in Bangladesh caused serious concern in India, especially about the safety and rights of the minorities. The recent note verbale from Bangladesh asking India to extradite Sheikh Hasina for trial has further infuriated the Indian public. The Indian social and electronic media is inundated with information on the developments in Bangladesh, mostly portraying the new regime as anti-India and anti-Hindu. While the media outrage may not have affected the policies of the Indian government, it has amplified the trust deficit between the people of the two countries.
Some of these side effects of the “Bangla Spring,” including the request for Sheikh Hasina’s extradition, are expected and should not cause any major worry to the Indian populace. The Indian government will be able to handle these. Further, the chaos shows signs of abetting after the initial violence and looting on the streets. Slowly, the importance of geography and the need for cooperation with India will also become abundantly clear to Bangladesh.
Indians, however, should not have unreasonable expectations from Bangladesh. While we may have helped them in 1971, it does not mean they would remain perpetually grateful. Bangladesh is an independent country with the right to choose its preferred form of government, its leaders, and the nations it wishes to befriend.
The Future of Bangladesh
Bangladesh‘s long-term future will be decided in the next 1-2 years. Will the nation move forward towards a new era of democracy, or will it sink into tight Islamist control, military rule, or foreign influence? Only time will tell, but Bangladesh will need to nurture a culture of political and social reconciliation to heal its wounds and bring cohesion to its fractured society.
A key player, vital for peace and stability ahead, is the Bangladesh Army. However, its actions, off late, especially during the last days of Sheikh Hasina’s government, have not built trust. The army also has a legacy of coups and counter-coups, with its officers having assassinated Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and many others within their hierarchy. The mutinies have been mainly led by junior officers known for their political and religious loyalties. The Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman likely faced pressure from such groups within and outside to deny intervention in anti-Hasina protests. In all probability, he will also succumb to such pressures in the future.
Another major stakeholder in Bangladesh today is the Islamic radicals, who have been challenging the secular nature of Bangladesh since independence. The removal of Sheikh Hasina, their joint effort with students, opposition parties, and a few others, is a victory for them. After this initial success, they will keep pushing for a fully Islamic state governed by sharia law.
The Indian Approach
Hasina’s removal is undoubtedly a setback for India but not catastrophic. The Indian leadership should address the situation maturely, taking a long-term perspective on India-Bangladesh relations. Stability in Bangladesh is essential for peace and development in India’s far eastern region. Therefore, despite provocations, India should continue to act with restraint, providing all the support required till the transition to a democratically elected Government is completed. The visit of the Indian Foreign Secretary to Dacca was a positive step. It should have set the stage for an improved environment with a better understanding of each other’s views.
Maj Gen Gajnder Singh (Retd)
