Editor’s Note
The agreement reached on the sides of the BRICS meeting at Kazan allowed for a quick disengagement. However, it needs to be utilised for the ultimate demarcation of the LAC. Demarcation doesn’t mean forsaking territorial claims but allows a more precise understanding at the tactical level. More military-to-military interaction, exercises, joint efforts in HADR and such cooperative missions will also be of value in setting the stage for negotiations.
The recent agreement between India and China to resolve the standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh offers welcome relief, though the operational details remain unclear. Indian hawks may credit this outcome to India’s resolute stance, but the precise motivations behind Beijing’s shift remain ambiguous. Is China genuinely seeking better ties with India? Is it an effort to distance India from U.S. influence? Or is it a strategy to address China’s own insecurities amid the shifting dynamics of the post-COVID international order?
Whatever the reasoning, it is clear that China sees strategic value in stabilizing relations with India at this point. Rather than overanalysing each other’s intentions, both countries should thus focus on consolidating the opportunity this détente presents. They must also ensure that this progress is not undermined by fresh tensions, as was seen after the brief bonhomie during the Modi-Xi summit in Chennai.
For this to happen, both governments must resist being swayed by hardline voices within their policy circles. They must recognize that the LAC is the most critical flashpoint in their bilateral relations. To ensure stability, institutionalizing measures that can prevent the escalation of conflicts along the LAC is essential.
Achieving Clarity on the LAC: A Strategic Necessity
The frustration and setbacks experienced over the past seven years, beginning with the Doklam standoff, will be in vain if we fail to ensure long-term stability along the LAC. The sustainability of any diplomatic progress hinges on achieving clarity regarding the LAC, both on maps and on the ground. For this, it is imperative that India and China abandon the process of exchanging maps. Instead, the two sides must engage in direct, face-to-face discussions to demarcate the LAC through mutual understanding and consensus.
Since the delineation of the LAC does not affect the legal validity of their broader territorial claims, both nations should be open to minor compromises to build trust. This flexibility will signal goodwill and pave the way for meaningful cooperation. However, these negotiations cannot succeed through routine bureaucratic channels alone. They must be driven from the top, with Special Representatives of both countries taking the lead to ensure alignment at the highest political levels.
A clearly defined LAC is not just a technical solution but a strategic necessity. It would reduce misunderstandings, minimize the risk of confrontations, and provide a stable framework for future relations.
Confidence-Building Through Military De-escalation
Once the LAC is demarcated, both countries must strengthen confidence-building measures (CBMs). A key step would be reducing the deployment of troops and armaments along the border. However, some in India’s strategic community raise concerns about equidistant withdrawals, given the challenges of operating in the rugged Indian terrain requiring longer induction and acclimatization periods. In contrast, China enjoys logistical advantages on the Tibetan Plateau.
While these tactical concerns are valid, they should not overshadow the strategic objective of de-escalation. Modern conflicts rarely start without warning, providing sufficient time for both sides to mobilize forces if needed. The focus should shift from tactical considerations to creating a predictable, stable environment along the LAC. Phased de-escalation, backed by early-warning systems and clear communication channels, will help reduce the risk of unintended conflicts.
Both countries must seriously consider joint patrolling and a technologically enabled verification mechanism for areas with differing perceptions of the LAC. Currently, both sides leave tell-tale signs of their presence to strengthen claims. All these competitive behaviours should be replaced by processes that foster trust and verifiability.
Strengthening Border Communication Mechanisms
Enhancing the Border Personnel Meeting (BPM) mechanism is another essential step. At present, there are only four BPM points along the 3,488 km LAC—Chushul (Ladakh), Nathu La (Sikkim), Bum La (Tawang), and Kibithu (Lohit Valley). This limited network is inadequate to manage the vast frontier effectively. Establishing more BPM points—ideally one in each divisional sector—would allow local commanders to resolve minor issues before they escalate. Regular flag meetings between forward troops should also be encouraged to build familiarity and reduce mistrust.
Toward a Final Border Settlement
While managing the LAC is critical, it is not a substitute for resolving the underlying border dispute. Little progress has been made on a comprehensive border settlement since 1960, leaving the issue unresolved and a source of persistent tension. Both countries must renew efforts to engage in meaningful dialogue toward a final settlement.
Expanding Military Cooperation Beyond the Border
Beyond the border, bilateral military cooperation offers another avenue to strengthen ties. The two countries could collaborate on peacekeeping missions, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief (HADR) operations. Such initiatives would build mutual respect and demonstrate that the two militaries can cooperate despite unresolved political differences.
Statesmanship for a New Era
With Modi and Xi both in their third terms, the time is ripe for decisive action. They must rise above domestic pressures and demonstrate statesmanship to address the border issue, which has plagued bilateral relations for decades. The rewards—regional stability, economic growth, and enhanced global influence—are immense. Resolving the border dispute will stabilise India-China relations and shape the future of Asia. Bold leadership, backed by mutual trust and a shared vision, can transform this moment into a turning point for both nations.
Maj Gen Gajinder Singh (Retd)
