Myanmar’s ruling junta has ceded control of extensive territories, including access to much of its international borders, empowering ethnic armed groups to expand and solidify their hold over regions, as stated in two recent reports. With a population of 55 million, the country has been embroiled in turmoil since February 2021 following the military’s ousting of an elected government led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, sparking widespread protests.
The peaceful street demonstrations faced brutal repression, leading to the emergence of an armed resistance movement. This powerful alliance with Myanmar’s ethnic rebel armies represents the most significant challenge to the military in decades. According to the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M), the junta has lost control over 86% of the country’s territory and 67% of the population, rendering its authority ineffective.
“The military junta does not control enough of the territory of Myanmar to uphold the core duties of the state,” the SAC-M, an independent group of international experts set up after the coup to support the return of democracy, said in a briefing paper.
“The junta has abandoned significant territory and has been forced into a defensive posture in most parts of the country where it remains present.”
Operation 1027, a coordinated offensive last October led by three ethnic armies, marked a key moment that exposed a weakened military, which ceded swathes of borderlands in Myanmar’s north.
A series of offensives by ethnic armies since have pushed the junta out of peripheral areas all the way from the country’s border with Thailand to coastal tracts along the Bay of Bengal.
“The ethnic armed groups that have achieved many of these military victories are consolidating control of their expanded homeland areas, with many well on the way to establishing autonomous statelets,” the non-profit Crisis Group said in a report.
The military’s mounting losses and growing dismay among the elite in the capital Naypyidaw have left junta chief Min Aung Hlaing’s future in serious doubt, although he has packed senior ranks with officers loyal to him, according to Crisis Group.
“He might thus be able to keep his job, but given the level of discontent, he could nevertheless face a plot to remove him,” it said.
Both reports said that with the junta losing control of almost all the country’s borders and non-state administrations likely to expand, neighbouring states, regional blocs, and the international community should widen their engagement with resistance groups.
Internal displacement in Myanmar has reached a record high, with over three million people forced out of their homes because of the escalating conflict, according to UN agencies.
“The international community must understand this reality and work directly with resistance authorities and civil society to deliver urgent aid and assistance to the Myanmar people,” said Yanghee Lee, one of SAC-M’s founding members.
(with Reuters inputs)
Team BharatShakti
