The 23rd meeting of the Special Representatives (SR) on the India-China border question was held in Beijing on 18 December. The meeting was held after a gap of five years, and the backdrop of the four-year-long Line of Actual Control (LAC) standoff in Eastern Ladakh assumed great importance. It raised the expectations of the people in both countries, anticipating positive development.
The meeting didn’t meet everyone’s expectations, as there wasn’t much tangible progress on the border issue. While no major decisions were anticipated, there was a hope that some agreement may be achieved on better mechanisms for managing the LAC. The meeting was also expected to chart future roadmaps of discussions on long-term border settlement.
Upon closer examination, the consensus reached during this initial engagement after long, strained relations is quite reasonable. Both delegations have positively reaffirmed their commitment to the October 2024 disengagement agreement concerning eastern Ladakh, which allows patrolling and grazing in previously contested areas. This reaffirmation should address any scepticism and serve as a stepping stone toward further de-escalation and de-induction of troops. Additionally, it was agreed that border issues should be handled carefully to avoid negatively impacting bilateral relations.
There was also an affirmation of their commitment to seek a fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable resolution to the boundary dispute and to take positive measures to promote this process. However, no details, timelines, or modalities have been specified. Similarly, the two sides agreed to refine the management of the LAC and strengthen confidence-building measures, albeit without providing specifics.
The positive direction of the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage halted in 2020 is also a promising development and resolves one major contentious issue between the two countries. Despite the relatively small number of pilgrims making the journey, it also holds significant symbolic value. In 2019, only 949 pilgrims travelled through Lipulekh to visit Kailash Mansarovar.
Similarly, the resumption of trade at Nathu La is a small but positive step that will provide impetus to bilateral relations. Historically, Nathu La was a major trade route between India, Sikkim, and Tibet. After being closed in 1962, it was reopened for trade in 2006 and gradually saw an increase in trade volume between the two countries. In 2015-16, the total trade amounted to Rs 7130 lakhs, with a trade surplus of Rs 4920 lakhs in favour of India.
Another lesser-known but significant understanding was reached on sharing river data, which is crucial for India as a lower riparian state, with major rivers like the Indus, Brahmaputra, and Sutlej originating from Tibet. India only has memorandums of understanding (MOUs) that are updated periodically to obtain data on discharge, water levels, and rainfall. With improved relations, these MOUs will eventually be replaced by a formal water-sharing treaty.
It seems that this interaction between the two delegations was intended to assess the situation, reaffirm their commitment to maintaining peace on the borders, and provide impetus to bilateral relations. They have addressed the resolvable matters by agreeing to resume the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage and border trade at Nathu La. The more contentious matters, such as the LAC and boundary issues, have been set aside for discussion at a later stage.
Considering the recent animosity between the two countries, it is fair to assume that the two sides would have preferred to go slow, build trust, develop understanding and test the waters before any significant steps are taken.
The decisions on critical issues related to the management of the LAC and long-term boundary resolution, however, cannot be delayed for long. The LAC, in its current undermarketed form, is highly volatile and can quickly lead to face-offs and trigger conflict. Ajit Doval and Wang Yi should, therefore, use the time before next year’s meeting to lay the groundwork and build consensus for mutually agreed solutions.
Brig SK Chatterji (Retd)
