Media reports built great hype on the completion of the Shahpur-Kandi Project (SKP), with catchy headlines of India stopping the flow of waters of the Ravi River to Pakistan. Pakistani newspaper Dawn had reported that filling up the reservoir for the Baglihar dam (on Chenab) in 2008 had resulted in 30% crop losses in Pakistan. For Pakistan, Ravi is the River of Punjab and Lahore. The famous ghazal by Pak singer Sajjad Ali sums it up poignantly, “Jeh Ravi which Pani Koi na, the apni kahani koi na”, meaning – if there is no water in Ravi, we have no story to tell. The apparent question is, are we heading towards Indo-Pak water wars?
SKP Project
Objective assessment indicates that 98% of the work is complete. The filling of the reservoir has commenced, and it will take two to three months to fill up the reservoir for the projected water level and power generation requirements. Recently constructed dams and reservoirs have been the missing parts of the Ranjit Sagar Dam (RSD), also known as Thein Dam. RSD was commissioned in 2001, after an inter-state agreement in 1979. The scheme was upgraded to a national project in 2008, but work commenced in 2013, only to get stalled in 2014. Centre had to intervene in 2018 to resolve the festering dispute between Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir.
Balancing reservoirs in large dam systems is essential for exercising positive control of water flowing downstream. SKP, 11 km from Thein, is a multipurpose project and includes two hydel projects (55.5 m height) with an installed capacity of 206 MW. It seeks to check the uncontrolled water flow (approximately 2 MAF) to Pakistan and harness it for irrigation. It is projected to supply 1150 cusecs of water for irrigating 32,173 hectares in the Kandi belt of Kathua and Samba through the Main Ravi Canal. The earlier tedious method of lifting water into the Tawi Lift Canal will be simplified with gravity feed. Regulated water supply in canals will bolster the defence potential of the vulnerable Kathua-Samba corridor. J&K will also get a 20% share of power. Besides getting 80% power, Punjab will draw water to irrigate an additional 5,000 hectares. Balancing reservoirs will also optimise the Upper Bari Doab Canal (UBDC) water supply, which was erratic and inefficient, conditioned by power generation considerations.
Ravi River-Water Utilisation
Indus Water Treaty (IWT) allows India to utilize the waters of the three Western rivers of Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. As per some estimates, 95% of the water would get utilized, but some water, especially in the rainy season, would still flow to Pakistan. Ravi basin includes many tributaries like Ujh, which join after transiting through the Shakargarh bulge in Pakistan. A follow-up project at Makaura-Pattan in Gurdaspur is envisaged to impound approximately 600 cusecs of water further for irrigation and drinking water supply. Punjab had asked for central funding of 412 crore in 2019. Haryana has even pitched for an ambitious link canal like SYL from the proposed dam to Harike to boost the water supply downstream.
Ravi is a trans-border river, defining 70 km of the Indo-Pak border and is notorious for shifting its course. It is resuscitated in Pakistan by link canals transferring water from the Marala Dam to Chenab. It also provides several enclaves on both sides. These can be utilised as launch pads as they obviate the need to fight tricky river-crossing operations. Defences are supplemented with Ditch cum Bundhs (DCB). Hydrological control of Ravi definitely aids operational plans.
Criticality of Water Management
India has the lowest per-capita freshwater availability. With barely 4% freshwater reserves for 17% of the global population, it creates severe water stress. Even by optimistic projections, we have only 90 days of reserves, compared to many countries boasting two years’ worth of pounded reserves. Fresh water is becoming a much sought-after resource as it is required in large quantities for silicon chip fabrication. Chinese aggressive forays to control the ‘Water table of Asia’ in Tibet are ascribed to looming water stress and ambitious plans for chip manufacturing.
China enjoys upper riparian leverages on our major rivers, the Indus, Sutlej, and Brahmaputra. The Dragon has a dubious record of opacity and refusal to share even mandated data. It was accused of triggering the Pare-chu deluge in Sutlej in 2000 and the Brahmaputra floods in 2020. It is reportedly building the Yarlung-Zangbo dam on Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) with plans to build a 1,100 km-long channel to the Takaltaman desert.
Climate change-induced melting of glaciers is further curtailing the availability of water. Parvez Musharaff, in his RCDS course thesis, had inferred that water would be the next trigger for the Indo-Pak conflict. Both countries face unresolved domestic inter-state water disputes like Cauvery, SYL in India, and Kalabagh and Kohala in Pakistan. The abysmal track record of water management in Pakistan is reflected in periodic floods, most notably the debilitating deluge in 2022 and the build-up of salinity in the Indus basin. Pak obduracy is delaying de-silting operations in existing IWT dams, notably Salal (Reasi), on Chenab.
Dysfunctional- IWT
IWT mandated an 85% share of the Indus basin to Pakistan, with a near total share of three Western rivers, Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. Notwithstanding the pronounced tilt towards Pakistan, it allows India to build storage for run-of-river projects for power generation and livelihood issues like the Tulbul Navigation project (Wullar barrage) on Jhelum, flood control, etc. India can build storage of 3.6 MAF and has the potential to generate 18,653 MW of power, whereas our current utilisation is barely 0.75 MAF (31%) storage and 3,264 MW (17%) hydro-power.
Belated Indian efforts like the Kishenganga project and Ratle dam on Chenab have been dragged by Pakistan concurrently to the Court of Arbitration and neutral experts. India has refused to be a party to such filibustering and concurrent dispute-resolution mechanisms. As a result, the annual meetings of the IWT Commission have become irregular since the Uri (2016) and Pulwama (2019) attacks with demands that the IWT should be scrapped. The last IWT meeting was held in May 2022. In January 2023, India gave notice for the modification of the Treaty. The critical requirement is to convince Pak to allow India to harness its agreed potential on Western rivers. India has several projects on Chenab, like Ratle, Pakkal Dul, Kiru and Bursar, in the pipeline. The more significant challenge is convincing China to behave like a responsible upper-riparian state. It is time for China to treat the water table as global or Asian common and share it equitably.
Lt Gen KJ Singh (Retd)
