Editor’s Note
Is attrition as a war-fighting philosophy losing its relevance as technology offers other alternatives to subjugating the opponent? As we progress further, those nations that can best combine technology-driven systems with information, communication, and cyber dominance will be able to best subdue the enemy commander’s mind.
Prelude
Disruption in Military Affairs has ushered an era with the concept that “Victory is measured by Digital2Quantum Footprint” for all of us who would still like to believe that victory is measured by foot!
“What lessons were learned from the ongoing wars?” quipped the Chairman of Net Assessment. The strategists in the room were all smiles; they had their narratives well prepared, and he listened to them with rapt attention. Progressive diplomacy, coercive diplomacy, and defence industry must cater for surge; defence forces must cater to long-drawn wars with larger reserves, cater for long-haul supply chains and operational logistics, better training for battle endurance, manned-unmanned systems, mothball equipment for just-in-time employment, plan critical equipment leases; each looking at the elephant in the room blindfolded.
“Brilliant! Have you noticed that wars often start with mistrust, doubts about intentions, confusion on critical national issues, and the anger and ego of political regimes who refuse to talk? It seems that war has become the preferred solution. Nations go to war, causing untold losses to infrastructure and human capital and leaving deep scars in the psyche of ordinary citizens. It affects the economy in the long run, and the global community then debates conflict resolution strategies and conflict termination terms.”
The Chief Technology Officer quipped, ‘I have a scenario that can have a quick impact akin to an armed conflict, but no shots are fired, and faster conflict resolution is a possibility, and it can be a global game changer.’
Argument
The global community is currently experiencing a form of warfare based on attrition, where victory is measured by the casualties inflicted, destruction of humans and equipment, captured territory, and other physical metrics. On the other hand, manoeuvre warfare focuses on targeting the enemy’s mind-set, creating a virtual sphere of influence where disrupting the enemy’s mental state is crucial. The mantra is “Munn Ke Hare Haar Hai, Munn Ke Jeete Jeet” (Victory resides in the mind). The argument is that the world needs to transition from a focus on attrition, reminiscent of the pre-nineteenth century, to a state of mind focused on manoeuvring where disruptive technology is the enabler.
Technology Drivers
The technology-driven scenarios can herald a war without firing a shot!
On D-Day, the transportation systems comprising metros, airlines, and railways faced a major cyberattack, resulting in non-operational airports in metros and a few major rail accidents.
D plus One, the banks, digital public infrastructure and National Power Grid undergo a major disruption.
D plus Two, major hospitals are under cyberattack, and the nation is coming to its knees.
All this is happening in the backdrop of social media abuzz with disinformation of tribal rivalries, religion-driven riots, attacks on religious places, mutinies in security forces, etc. There are intelligence reports of a major threat of drone swarms on the borders and underwater unmanned autonomous systems in coastal areas. The nation experiences heightened security threats and fear psychosis, and government structures prepare for reconciliation with time. Not a shot is fired, but coercive diplomacy is on display.
There is a dire need for the Indian Armed Forces to prepare for technology-based threat scenarios. Possible courses of action are as follows:
One is to prepare a blueprint for high-tech scenarios. Information, communication, and cyber (ICoCy) defence of own critical infrastructure and a credible capability to steer, calibrate, and sustain offensive ICoCy technologies.
Based on the strategy, two are to organise Territorial Army Units comprising subject matter experts from the armed forces, academia, government, and industry.
Thirdly, technology-based ICoCy surgical strikes may be launched to convey subtle messages to inimical neighbours in the West and North.
Four, design and develop role-based unmanned autonomous systems (aerial, ground, sea and underwater):
- Logistics & Supply Chain for advance winter stocking, advance monsoon stocking, air maintenance of winter isolated posts, casualty evacuation, para jumping, sky diving, infiltration operations and facilitating operational logistics in military operations -10kg to 150 kg packages.
- Surveillance – All terrains, tactical intelligence gathering operations and targets of interest in depth – LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging), SAR (Synthetic Aperture RADAR), EO (Electro-optical) and communication payloads for military operations both counter insurgency-counter terrorism ( CI-CT ) and conventional.
- Operational scenarios as eyes and ears on the land, in air or sea for search-seek-destroy missions – lethal weapon platforms, mining ops by carrying mines for scattering in the face of the enemy, reconnaissance (recce) and recce in force missions, kamikaze operations and other Tri-Services integrated combat missions.
Prognosis
Russia, Ukraine War and the Israel-Gaza War in the Middle East have been unprecedented in history by the sheer stamina in time beyond and space with no respite, massive loss of life and infrastructure, and, of course, reputations, but with no clear end state. In a dynamic World Order where the United Nations has come of age, G 20, G 7, and a large number of friendly, most favoured Nation alliances like AUKUS, BRICS and the like are rife, this apathy for a war drawn much over 875 days and over 275 days respectively, are reminiscent of a big quagmire in the global peace assurance ecosystems.
Having championed the Digital Public Infrastructure with the technology landscape of big data, 5G, AI, cloud, quantum and a global software capital, India must take the lead to be the vanguard and demonstrate how technology-based contours of manoeuvre warfare can disrupt without firing a shot or physical loss of lives or infrastructure! Opportunities beckon!!
Lt Gen Dr Anil Kapoor (Retd)
