The future of truth augers deliberation in this era of disruptive technologies. The adage, “Whatever can be clearly defined can be precisely designed and positioned,” is the truth, and the disruptive technology landscape has adequately demonstrated this. However, there is a sequel. One can consistently and comprehensively defy truth by misusing technology and compromising on moral values and ethics, which can be detrimental and damaging, especially in crisis and surely in war.
The debate on the abuse of technology and data suffers when some thinkers suggest that all is fair in love and war. All decision-making is information-based, but what happens when the fact is a perception or planted inappropriately driven by technology and data? Disinformation leads to misinformation driven by social media and psychological warfare, which results in rumour-mongering and, in the worst case, misleading the fact sheet.
In a digital world, if data is the new oil, technology is the new oil refinery that can drive GIGO (garbage in, garbage out), which is detrimental to cogent decision-making by commanders at all levels. That treatise is being called FUTURE OF TRUTH IN WARFARE 4.0 – a challenge that needs to be proactively mitigated with the comprehensive application of the niche technology landscape, hence a huge opportunity. The moot questions are, “What is the future of truth in Warfare? How do we mitigate GIGO-based decision-making? and many more…” The future of truth is becoming increasingly complex, influenced by technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and evolving disinformation strategies and psychological operations.
The Challenges
The new technology world order is institutionalised by Four Ds -Data, Digitization, Digitalization and Disruption, driven by semiconductors (sensors, IoT) and software (BDA, AI) and defined by automation, autonomy, precision and positioning. These have given a new high to disruptions over a wide range of services in the past two decades, both positives and negatives. While Uber, Airbnb, Amazon, Netflix, 5G, Google, and Facebook, to name a few big tickets, are some positives, deep fakes are a big-time negative. The world has woken up to the realities of vulnerabilities post-COVID and the ongoing Wars. The trends have shown global over-dependence on manufacturing infrastructure in China, major disinformation campaigns in the Russia-Ukraine War giving rise to varying perceptions in the absence of facts, the rise of deepfakes, AI-generated texts, and sophisticated cyber operations; all this and more has made it easier to create and spread false information.
Deliberate disinfo, as propagated by the falsely proclaimed death of Poonam Pandey, a self-styled celebrity, is yet another negative fallout of public belief in multi-channel multimedia fake news. Obviously, this tool can be used to manipulate public opinion, sow discord among troops/ populations, or deceive military decision-makers. Some key trends and considerations relevant to the future of truth are analysed below.
Geopolitical Shifts
The new world order is dynamically evolutionary and driven by sovereign National interests. That said, the rise of new powers and the reassertion of traditional ones in the digital domain will continue to influence how truth and information are manipulated in future conflicts. The strategic use of information as a tool of statecraft and warfare will likely increase as part of broader geopolitical competition. This challenge gets hugely compounded when public opinion is kicked in. To that extent, public awareness and resilience are imperative in a globally well-connected global order. Hence, the future of truth in warfare may also depend on the public’s ability to discern truth from falsehood. Education and awareness efforts and the development of technologies to detect and counter misinformation are crucial for building societal resilience against these tactics.
The War Zone
The war zone is five-dimensional – land, air, sea, space and cyber. Given the fog of war, a reality, the challenge of discerning the truth from false positives is vital lest the decision result in detrimental, irreversible consequences. We may recall incidents where, due to IFF anomalies, inadvertent casualties to own troops and the shooting down of friendly aerial platforms have occurred. For a moment, savour the idea of technology being deliberately deployed to infuse an anomaly in the IFF system. The results would be catastrophic. A WhatsApp video went viral sometime back, and a heap of cell phones in a cart indicated a major traffic congestion on the highway in Google Maps.
Global Connectivity, Social Media & Ethics
The global reach of social media platforms allows for rapid dissemination of information and disinformation, making it a powerful tool in modern warfare. The ability to influence or control the narrative on these platforms can have significant strategic implications. It brings in the need to ring in international standard compliances and regulations in the light of ethical challenges. The international community faces challenges in regulating state and non-state actors’ behaviour in the digital domain. Establishing norms and laws that govern information operations and cyber warfare is complex and fraught with ethical considerations.
Invisible Warfare
The world is in a perennial state of war. The concept of warfare has expanded beyond the physical battlefield to include the digital and informational realms, called invisible or unregulated warfare. Nations and non-state actors now engage in information warfare to undermine trust in institutions, influence elections, and erode the morale of populations as much in a ‘NO WAR’ state as in WAR. Cyber warfare capabilities today allow states to conduct espionage, sabotage critical infrastructure, and steal sensitive information without engaging in traditional military conflict. The ambiguity of cyber operations can make it difficult to attribute attacks, complicating the truth and often leading to misinformation. Psychological Operations (Psy Ops) have become more sophisticated, leveraging social media and other platforms to spread targeted propaganda, fake news, and disinformation at a scale previously unimaginable.
The Technology Lens
As artificial intelligence (AI) and deepfake technology evolve, distinguishing between real and fabricated content will become increasingly difficult. This could lead to an erosion of trust in digital media, making it harder for troops in the Tactical Battle Area and the public, in general, to discern the truth. The future of truth in an information-driven world is a complex and multifaceted issue that involves technological, societal, and ethical dimensions that could shape the future.
Deep technology is a boon and needs to be reconfigured iteratively to raise red flags and create safeguards to address deep fakes. There is yet another dimension which needs to be examined. Consider three platforms of aerial drones with one sensor and two company posts with three sensors, each looking into the forward zone. The information is being passed to the Operations Room by collating feed from all the sensors. In case six tanks are detected by each platform and sensor – the seven sensors may indicate a combat group unless multi-platform – multi-sensor –data fusion (MPMSDF) is institutionalised. This simple tactical example gets compounded when we look at satellite imageries, AWACs and other surveillance devices conveying data to a central data repository.
The Mitigation Strategy
The future of truth in information warfare is not predetermined and will depend at the strategic levels on the actions taken by governments, the technology industry, academia, researchers and startup ecosystem and at the tactical level by commanders at all levels in keeping the rank and file engaged with the fact sheet. It requires a coordinated effort to foster an information ecosystem where truth can prevail. In radars, a feature for clutter rejection gives better visibility to moving targets. The clutter of disinformation needs to be rejected. Some key actionable issues are deliberated below.
Global Cooperation
Combating information warfare effectively will require international cooperation, as misinformation and disinformation campaigns often cross national boundaries. Sharing strategies, technologies, and best practices can help create a unified front against these threats.
Regulation and Policy
Governments and international bodies may implement stricter regulations on data privacy and data protection, as well as applications of AI, social media platforms, and news outlets, to combat misinformation and disinformation. It could include measures to ensure transparency about the sources of information and the use of fact-checking services. There will be ongoing debates about the balance between combating misinformation and preserving freedom of expression. Ethical guidelines for both AI development and journalistic practices will be crucial in navigating these challenges.
Technological Solutions
The development of AI and machine learning algorithms that can automatically detect and flag false information could play a crucial role. These would need to be liberally deployed to ensure that only the single source of truth is propagated and all false positives are ruthlessly attenuated. In this regard, the media ecosystem, including social media, must be motivated to take on a more active role in combating misinformation by adjusting their algorithms to prioritise credible sources and by providing users with tools to report and filter out false information.
Rebuilding trust in traditional media and institutions is essential. It could involve media outlets adopting more transparent practices, such as showing clear evidence for their reports and engaging in public awareness campaigns about their fact-checking processes.
Digital Literacy and Education
There will be a growing need for digital literacy programs that teach people how to evaluate the credibility of information sources critically. Education in media literacy, critical thinking, and fact-checking skills could become integral parts of curricula at all levels of education.
Integrated Theatre & Tactical Battle Area
Managing information is key to successful military operations. Major initiatives to be undertaken by the three Services to maintain sanctity with truth are given below:
- Deployment of sensors in combination to eliminate false positives. For example, unattended ground sensors deployed with tactical drones will ensure the sanctity of information.
- As the number of platforms and sensors increases to include space-based assets, aerial sensors, and ground/ship-based sensors, multi-platform, multi-sensor data fusion will be a compulsion rather than a choice.
- A Tri-Services management information system, intelligence and operational information system and decision support system for business intelligence, augmented intelligence, and artificial intelligence must be designed and developed. It will ensure Tri-Services integration and maintain the sanctity of the single source of truth. An overall analysis, powered by AI, would result in a defence cloud-based big data information decision support system for effective command, control, computer, communication, cybertronix, cognition and combat (C7).
- In the TBA, two-way secure information flows to commanders at all levels, and regular troop briefings will be vital for warding off rumours. More importantly, quelling rumours and disinformation ruthlessly and giving the correct fact-based picture to all ranks would be necessary to maintain truthful reporting and high morale.
Conclusion
The future of truth in warfare will likely be marked by increased sophistication and prevalence of disinformation and misinformation tactics, requiring concerted efforts from governments, technology companies, and civil society to uphold truth and counteract these strategies. The battle for the truth will be fought on the physical front and in the minds and perceptions of the global population. Proactive strategic and tactical actions must be established to ensure the sanctity of truth. It may be construed as the future of truth 4.0!
Lt Gen Anil Kapoor AVSM, VSM, PhD (Retd)
