Editor’s Note
With the Russians forced to get closer to the Chinese, India emerges more strongly as a necessity for the US to counter the Russia-Chaina potential. However, the US may not like the idea of India itself growing to a point where it challenges the US. Such is the dilemma when Americans evaluate the India-US relationship.
United States superpower status is under debate amidst the rise of China, an economic giant pushing for equivalence if not dominance, and Russia, making it amply clear that despite the challenges, it remains a force to reckon with. Further adding to it are the Middle East criticalities in the shadow of Islamic fundamentalism. The Sino-US divergences have made the Indo-West Pacific Region a sensitive hot spot that impacts global trade.
The US-Russia equations continue to affect the European and NATO subtleties, especially in the backdrop of the Ukraine war, and remain sensitive in the wake of the Sino-Russian compatibility. The USA seeks to retain its unquestioned power status, especially in the economic domain, through all means and tools of statecraft. In such settings, the emergence of India as an important player, both on the geostrategic and geo-economic fronts, has brought her focus and relevance on the world stage.
India has now become a necessary tool for the USA in countering Russia and China as it has the potential to tilt the balance to either side. India’s historical and time-tested relations with Russia add to the US’s concern about which side the” Balancer” shall tilt in the power play on display in Europe and Asia. Above all, India’s unwavering stance of pursuing her independent strategic autonomy, with national interests being the foremost priority, is not suited to American interests. Further, the Indian markets and economy are the most lucrative destinations for the capitalists of the world for trade and manufacturing, despite the bureaucratic and political difficulties.
Most importantly, it is becoming obvious that the USA is not keen on another economic giant like China emerging in the form of India, which, given the potential, could be another competitor in the times ahead. The options to neutralise such a probability available to the US are, firstly, to pull India into its alliance fold somehow and control it, secondly unlike in the case of China, to ensure that India is only facilitated in economic and technological advancements to a degree that keep her dependent, and thirdly the dangerous option of neutralising and weakening India through deep state actions by manipulating the religious, social and political fractures that lend themselves to exploitation.
The option of tempting India into the US’s alliance fold is unlikely to materialise as it would be unwilling to compromise on its sovereignty in any of the domains that impact national interests. All US-led alliances come with caveats that would not be acceptable to a nation capable of protecting its interests without conditions. Alliances are reciprocal in nature, and the dominant partner tends to promote its agendas more than serving the interests of weaker members.
A case in point is the near compelling of unwilling NATO members to participate in the US-led campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan. As they say, in international relations, there are no permanent friends or enemies; it becomes important to retain freedom unless there is no other option available.
The second option of holding India’s economic growth back to levels that deny its development beyond a threshold is double-edged. In such a contingency, India can align with those willing to assist, which would dilute US endeavours to counter the economic might of China and Russian potential. In fact, choked by the US controls on dollar trade, countries are already seeking alternatives, like the one due to be announced by the BRICS, and losing the Indian markets to it would adversely impact the US economy.
The last option of neutralizing and weakening India before it rises through covert means that attack the religious, social, and political fabric is the most dangerous and is in play. Reportedly, the American deep state has played a role in destabilizing Bangladesh, which adds to the existing instabilities India already has along its northern and Western frontiers. These instabilities drain the economy and slow down development.
Democracies, human rights, and other propagated commonalities are being exploited to promote vested interests. Incidentally, publicised humanitarian angles and soft ideologies have a very limited place in the geostrategic and geo-economic agendas of nations but are dangerous tools that need to be guarded against.
It appears that all the options are being simultaneously exploited to achieve the desired end game in a supposedly subtle manner. Indian leadership understands the dynamics well and will be able to neutralize the impediments to growth and sovereignty. The dilemma the USA faces is the adversities involved in promoting the second and third options in the backdrop of choices available to India to neutralize such endeavours. Additionally, in the backdrop of India’s independent approach to matters of strategic autonomy the first option is also difficult to achieve.
The challenge of how to deftly manage India to keep the “Balancer” on the right side remains, and the sole choice available is to understand India’s strategic compulsions and interests and support its growth. The USA needs to understand that a stronger India, with democratic credentials, will naturally be inclined towards America.
Lt Gen Vijay Singh (Retd)
