A day after announcing landmark agreement on patrolling along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, India confirmed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will hold a bilateral meeting with President Xi Jinping on Wednesday in Kazan, Russia, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit. This meeting, the first formal bilateral engagement between the two leaders since their 2019 meeting in Tamil Nadu, is highly anticipated. It is expected to formalize the agreement reached in the early hours of Monday regarding border patrolling.
Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri confirmed the development during a press briefing in Kazan on Tuesday, following positive remarks from the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Beijing welcomed the agreement and expressed its commitment to working with India to implement the new arrangement. Misri outlined that the agreement aims to restore patrolling and grazing rights in the disputed areas to the pre-2020 status. He emphasized that the deal addresses the unresolved issues that emerged in recent years.
Agreements on Depsang and Demchok Patrolling Rights Only
Nitin Gokhale, Editor-in-Chief of BharatShakti, who is covering the BRICS summit in Kazan, explained that the disengagement at key standoff points like Depsang and Demchok in Ladakh will now revert to pre-2020 conditions. Patrolling rights, which were previously blocked by both sides, will be restored, marking a significant resolution to these long-standing disputes. Gokhale highlighted that last month’s meeting between Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Russia played a pivotal role in expediting the process. During the meeting, Doval stressed the need for swift disengagement in areas where the situation had yet to normalize.
Secondly, on Tuesday, the Army Chief said that Chinese should not come back creeping into the buffer zones established during the 2021-22 disengagement in areas such as Hot Springs, Gogra, and Finger 4 and 8 along the northern banks of Pangong Tso. These zones, located in areas such as Hot Springs, Gogra, and Finger 4 and 8 along the banks of the north of Pangong Tso, are protected by existing agreements. Foreign Secretary Misri also clarified that these areas were not part of the current discussions and would remain undisturbed under the new arrangement. The latest talks focused on resolving outstanding issues related to patrolling rights in the Depsang and Demchok regions.
The clarity provided by the Foreign Secretary was crucial, as media reports had speculated about the reopening of patrol routes in Finger 4 and 8. Misri’s comments have confirmed that the buffer zones created post-2021-22 will remain intact while patrolling in the agreed-upon areas will resume under the new agreement.
One Step At A time
Explaining the cautious optimism surrounding the return to the pre-2020 status, Nitin Gokhale noted that the Foreign Secretary tempered expectations. He emphasized that while the agreements mark significant progress, their implementation will be gradual, reflecting the trust deficit that has built up between the two nations over the past four years. Gokhale added that once Prime Minister Modi meets President Xi Jinping, it could formalize the agreements reached on Monday. However, the next steps will not be immediate, but rather incremental and carefully calibrated.
The Foreign Secretary further clarified that de-escalation and troop withdrawal (de-induction) would come at a later stage. The priority is to ensure that disengagement is fully completed first, paving the way for additional steps. According to the Foreign Secretary, it has to be implemented on the ground and India will strive for arrangements that prevent any clash. He also hinted those certain details of the agreement, reached earlier this week, will be made public in due course. Following the Modi-Xi meeting, both governments are expected to begin releasing the specifics of the agreements.
According to the Foreign Secretary, the agreement must be implemented carefully on the ground, with India focusing on establishing mechanisms that prevent future clashes. The broader steps, referred to as the “3 Ds” (disengagement, de-escalation, de-induction) formula, will follow only after this initial stage is successfully completed. As a result, the current agreement is limited in scope, addressing legacy issues in areas like Depsang and Demchok.
This is why Gokhale said, “It’s too early to be euphoric or elated.” This is just the beginning. The deeper geopolitical tension between China and India, particularly concerning India’s rise and growing competitiveness, will not dissipate quickly. The border issue is only a small part of the larger India-China equation, which will have long-term global implications.
The West, particularly the United States, will be watching closely. For some time now, the U.S. has been positioning India at the forefront of efforts to counter China, notably through initiatives like the Quad, offering increased assistance and intelligence sharing. However, India has made it clear to Washington that it is not interested in playing that role. Unlike other Quad or Western nations, India is the only country with a disputed 4,000 km land boundary with China. None of those nations face the same level of physical pushback and aggression across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) or the McMahon Line as India does.
This is why we need to temper the euphoria and manage expectations, especially those coming from analysts. It’s important to take a pragmatic, step-by-step approach, drawing on the lessons learned from the past four years. The “3-D” process — disengagement, de-escalation, and de-induction — will not happen overnight; it requires time and careful management.
(Note: click on the YouTube link for full interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpZwzFO_siE&t=1020s)
Team BharatShakti
