With Donald Trump back as U.S. President, India can expect a renewed emphasis on defence cooperation, though there may be a few shifts reflecting his policy priorities. On this week’s Defence Mantra, Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale talks about some potential directions:
On the Indo-Pacific Strategy
Trump has consistently positioned the U.S. to counterbalance China in the Indo-Pacific, which aligns with India’s own regional concerns. India can expect stronger support for India’s role in the Quad, more frequent joint exercises, and possibly an elevated strategic role for India in containing China’s influence in Asia.
The U.S. may seek closer intelligence sharing with India and possibly offer more technology transfers for a secure Indo-Pacific region.
It is worth noting that perhaps China reached an agreement with India on LAC patrolling and resolution of friction points once it sensed the return of Trump.
Trump has been clear on tariff hikes on Chinese products and India needs to tread carefully, especially since CAATSA sanctions remain a concern, especially for deals with Russia like the S-400 missile system. Trump does not consider Russia as much of an adversary as China, but he is a businessman at the end of it and would want defence sales.
On Defence Production and Sales
Observing that Trump has historically prioritised arms sales to strengthen the U.S. economy, we might see more offers of advanced equipment to India. High-value deals like advanced missile systems, and possible naval hardware could be on the table.
Trump has encouraged U.S. companies to engage in joint ventures and co-production abroad, especially if it benefits U.S. jobs, Nitin opines that this could mean a push for joint projects under the Make in India initiative, with possible fast-tracking of technology transfers in specific areas like naval and aerial defence systems.
Trump’s policy approach is expected to be highly transactional, so India may need to negotiate well to maintain favorable terms in defence deals and maintain strategic autonomy.
However, the President-elect shares a cordial relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and despite the fact that the geopolitical landscape appears more complex than before, Nitin remains largely optimistic about India – U.S. bilateral relations.
