Assad has been in battle too long without being either defeated or entirely in control of Syria. In effect, it was in 2011 that the war really started in Syria, with a pro-democracy party leading street protests against Assad’s dictatorial regime.
Notwithstanding US backing the rebels, Assad ultimately won most of the race, if not all. Assad was primarily backed by the Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. However, the rebels retained a substantial hold in the eastern and northern parts with US aided Kurdish groups in the lead.
Foreign Forces Operating In Syria And Their Political Alignments
Turkey. has troops deployed in Syria since long. Its forces have operated mostly in northwestern Syria – territory held by some Kurdish groups. Turkey supported the rebels 2011. However, Turkish objectives are directed more against Kurdish groups rather than Damascus. Turkish forces have been launched in Syria on four occasions since 2016. Damascus has always been keen to witness a withdrawal of Turkish forces, it views as an occupying foreign force.
US Forces. The US forces have ben in Syria since 2014. Trump announced in 2018 that he wanted to pull out. However, the Americans never did it keeping in view the fact of Russian and Iranian dominance that would follow. Trump’s statement on the current crisis is, “It’s not our war.” The US has approximately 900 troops in northeast Syria.
Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Iranian Revolutionary Guards were initially deployed in Syria in 2012. They were a sizeable force, however, Iranian economy, defence preparedness and leadership has been degraded substantially since the Gaza war by a focussed Israeli measure in concert with the US and western countries. Hezbollah has pulled out its resources from Syria for the Lebanese front.
Russia. The most powerful supporter that Assad had was Russia. However, the Ukraine war has taken its toll. It may not be able to fight a battle on two fronts. Syria was immense political gain for Russia when it intervened in 2015 and tilted the scales in favour of Assad. Moscow has reiterated its support, but is unlikely to follow it up with men and material.
Syrian Armed Forces. The Syrian forces have lived through over a decade of no peace no war situation. It’s a tired military, that has surely been experiencing all kinds of shortages with its main suppliers, Iran and Russia, unable to keep the logistics pipelines going. Assad dictatorial ways and over reliance on his own tribe, would also have distanced a lot of
Syrian Rebels: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The group has its origin in al Qaida. It was known as Jabhat al-Nusra, then. In 2016 the group left al Qaida and adopted its new name HTS. It has been in control of Idlib in northeastern Syria. Its objectives are an Islamic State of Syria. The HTS is in the lead against Assad in the current campaign.
Progress of Battle
The rebels have been in control of Idlib for a long time. They carried out the fastest manoeuvre witnessed in the area, seemingly surprising government troops or reaching agreements with them. On 3 December they captured Aleppo. By 5 December they had swept south to capture Hama and had stared progressing towards Homs. Meanwhile the Russians and Syrian government forces launched air attacks, claiming 200 rebels killed.
Homs is about 40 km Hama and is strategically located to stop all movement from Damascus to the coast where the Russians also have a base.
Meanwhile, Deraa region, south of Damascus, has been taken over by the rebels. That blocks all movement from Damascus to Jordan in jeopardy. The Syrian forces withdrew from Deraa to Damascus after an agreement with the rebels.
Anticipated Course of Events
Apparently, the current Assad centric power structure in Syria will collapse, soon enough. However, HTS is not the sole power driving the current campaign. Nor can it be predicted very surely that HTS will be a benign power and a mass killing of pro-Assad people will not form a part of the consolidation phase of HTS.
Inter-group rivalries could emerge among the rebels. How will be the relationship of Kurdish groups with HTS, could be decisive for stability in Syria? Similarly, the Alawite pre-dominant areas in Syria accepting to live under an overall HTS rule is doubtful.
Russian influence in West Asia, and Syria in particular, will take a direct hit for not having been able to provide adequate support to Assad. The Iranians being already stretched and not being in a position to provide support to Hezbollah operations, is already quite obvious.
The other big question is where will Assad go. Leaving him at the mercy of HTS would be suicidal for Russia and Iran’s reputation. He would possibly be flown out to an unknown destination, for the present. However, Assad’s political carrier has come to an end.
Brig SK Chatterji (Retd)
Editor, BharatShakti
