Editor’s Note
Part I provided an overview of Biological Warfare (BW) and Biological Weapons (BW) and their characteristics and included a brief historical perspective. Part II covers existing conventions, emerging technologies, and trends and finally discusses India’s potential role.
Biological Warfare: Convention, Emerging Trends and India’s Role
“We must come together to prevent, detect, and fight every kind of biological danger whether it is a pandemic like H1N1, a terrorist threat, or a treatable disease”. —– Barack Obama, United Nations General Assembly (2011).
Protocols and Agreements: Failed Treaty?
In response to the horrors of the First World War, including the use of chemical weapons, the 1925 Geneva Protocol was created to ban the use of biological and chemical weapons, which prohibited the development, production and use in war of biological and chemical weapons.
The WHO identified the threat of biological and chemical warfare officially amid the Vietnam War and Cold War after UN resolution 2162B (XXI) was adopted in 1967, condemning all actions contrary to the Geneva Protocol. It resulted in the 1970 WHO report ‘Health Aspects of Chemical and Biological Weapons’, updated in 2004 into WHO guidance ‘Public Health Response To Biological And Chemical Weapons’. In 1969, President Richard Nixon issued an executive order unilaterally and unconditionally ending America’s bioweapons program, and all US stockpiles were destroyed by 1972 (not verified).
The Biological Weapons Convention
The BWC, formally known as “The Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons (BCTW)”, prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons. It is the first multilateral disarmament treaty banning an entire category of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The BWC is a key element in the international community’s efforts to address WMD proliferation, and it has established a strong norm against biological weapons. The Convention has reached almost universal membership with 183 states-parties; ten states have neither signed nor ratified the BWC (Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Israel, Kiribati, Micronesia, Namibia, South Sudan, and Tuvalu).
Like many international declarations and agreements, the convention lacks compliance monitoring and verification mechanisms. It is far from being effective in controlling biological armament. It does not specifically define which agents or toxins are prohibited and what quantities would go beyond the justification. As of date, 16 countries plus Taiwan (which includes all five UNSC members) are currently suspected of having biological weapons programs: Canada, China, Cuba, France, Germany, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Japan, Libya, North Korea, Russia, South Africa, Syria, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Potent and Immediate Global Threat
The employment of BWA is not limited to war alone; it can occur at any time, place, and by anyone. They can be employed as WMD. The use of BWA has far-reaching consequences and can result in fear and panic in a population, whether under attack or being threatened to gain political advantages in political activities. The stress associated with a biological attack could create high numbers of acute and potentially chronic psychiatric casualties. Talking of potential threats, the most dreaded example is the great influenza pandemic during World War I, which killed 20 million people or more worldwide in 1918.
Although this was a naturally occurring event, what if a country could create a biological agent that could yield the same catastrophic loss of life to the enemy? That, in essence, is the potential effect of applying genetic engineering for biological warfare or bioterrorism. In this century, it is widely predicted that advances in biology and biotechnology will revolutionize society and life as we know it. At the same time, the “black biology” of biotechnology, which can be used to create biological weapons, will be one of the gravest threats we will face. Black biology is a shadowy science in which microorganisms are genetically engineered for the sole purpose of creating novel weapons of terror.
Emerging Technologies and Governance Mechanisms
Advances in three specific emerging technologies, additive manufacturing (AM) or 3D printing, artificial intelligence (AI), and robotics, facilitate the development or production of biological weapons and their delivery systems, but they are difficult to control. Nations will need to start hardening their societies to protect against man-made pathogens and develop warning systems that can detect engineered diseases. They will need to cut the amount of time required to develop and distribute vaccines and antiviral drugs to days instead of months. What is indeed worrying is that nearly two dozen conventional biological agents, including smallpox, anthrax, Ebola and typhus, plus an unknown number of genetically engineered organisms, are still maintained by many countries, including the big three (US, Russia and China, which, though a late starter is a rapid learner). These could fall into the wrong hands! COVID-19 could be a case of a virus escaping the lab by accident.
India and Biological Warfare
India ratified the BTWC on 15 July 1974 and did possess defensive BW capabilities. It has an extensive and advanced dual-use pharmaceutical industry and must stay ahead of the BW and BT loop.
Capabilities and Potential
While possessing the scientific capability and infrastructure to launch an offensive BW program, India has chosen NOT to do so. India also possesses delivery system capabilities (aerosols, delivery systems ranging from crop dusters to sophisticated ballistic missiles). India has sought to improve its biotechnology capabilities peacefully. It has a well-developed biotechnology infrastructure utilises well-trained scientists experienced with infectious diseases and numerous pharmaceutical production facilities and bio-containment laboratories (including labs at Biosafety Levels 3 and 4).
India’s biodefense industry is centred at the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), and its primary lab is located in Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh. Studies in toxicology, biochemical pharmacology, and the development of antibodies against several bacterial and viral agents are done. India has made substantial efforts to prepare its military force for a biological attack.
However, representatives of the Indian Army’s Medical Corps have publicly expressed reservations about the Indian hospital’s preparation and adequacy to events arising from BW. India’s Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) has developed the ability to deploy specially-trained first responders to the scene of a nuclear or biological attack.
The Fight against Bio-terrorism
The Indian government and friendly nations need to pool their resources and make major investments in the R&D of state-of-the-art devices capable of instantaneously detecting lethal bacteria and viruses in the environment. Setting up a National and Strategic Body to monitor biological and chemical threats, carry out holistic defensive planning and preparation, procure equipment, order raise suitable armed forces, paramilitary and NDRF (National Disaster Response Force) units/sub-units and personnel, and train them is an absolute imperative in the immediate future.
Global Recommendations for Prevention of BW and BT
Governance of biosafety and biosecurity is long overdue. It should include three key areas: an effective ban on offensive BW programmes, much-improved prevention and preparation for bioterrorism, and more transparency and surveillance of biological research labs (particularly P4 and P3 labs). The international community must take coordinated actions to prevent any man-made pandemic. Astoundingly, no international organization, in the UN system or elsewhere, is charged with overseeing biosafety and biosecurity at the global level. On 27 March 2020, India urged the comity of nations and the international community to ensure strict compliance with a global treaty banning the production of the entire range of biological weapons of mass destruction.
Conclusion
The COVID pandemic has woken up the world to BW’s potent, live and real threat. For the sake of humanity, developing a much more robust global governance of biosafety and biosecurity than currently exists at present is an urgent imperative for the international order. BT or BW is neither something new nor something likely to go away. While the likelihood of a successful bioterrorist attack is not very large, even if the number of casualties is expected to be limited, the impact of a bioterrorist attack is high, will affect many lives, and is undoubtedly costly in direct and indirect ways. India is well-poised geo-politically today to lead the charge to ensure a more effective and punitive BCWT. Concurrently, India needs to create a national set-up to monitor and battle BW. Today, the world is at a crossroads: India needs to lead and show the way. If humanity is not proactive, we should be ready for the Third World War, which could well be ‘Biological’.
Lt Gen PR Kumar (Retd)
