Maldives has entered into a military cooperation agreement of unprecedented significance with China, marking the first instance of such a deal between the two nations. Previously, China’s involvement in the Maldives had been primarily focused on aiding urban and economic development.
President Mohamed Muizzu has announced a recent agreement with China, stating that the Maldives will receive complimentary “non-lethal” military equipment and training. Emphasising that this collaboration will enhance the independence and autonomy of the Indian Ocean island nation, Muizzu held separate meetings with Major General Zhang Baoqun, Deputy Director of the Office for International Military Cooperation of China, and Ren Shengjun, President of the Export-Import Bank of China.
President Muizzu, widely perceived as a pro-China leader, disclosed specific information, emphasising that China and Maldives have consistently engaged in military cooperation. He clarified that the novel aspect of this agreement lies in the support the Maldives will receive to enhance its military capabilities.
The escalation of military ties between the Maldives and China follows President Muizzu’s assertion that no Indian military personnel, including those in civilian attire, will be allowed within the country after May 10. Less than a week after an Indian civilian team arrived in the Maldives to assume control of one of the three aviation platforms in the island nation, President Muizzu’s declaration is made. This occurs well in advance of the March 10 deadline, as agreed upon by both nations, for the withdrawal of Indian military personnel.
Soon after being sworn in as the Maldives President on November 17, Muizzu officially asked India to withdraw 88 military personnel from his country by March 15. He justified this request by citing the “strong mandate” given to him by the Maldivian people. In the September presidential runoff, the 45-year-old Muizzu defeated the incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, known for his friendly stance towards India. Notably, Muizzu departed from the tradition of newly-elected Maldivian presidents making their first foreign visit to New Delhi as he visited Beijing in January. He met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other leaders during his inaugural state visit to a foreign country.
Fast-Evolving Indian Ocean Region’s Dynamics
The constantly evolving Indian Ocean Region’s Dynamics have witnessed a few major events since the beginning of 2024. The Maldives, which is India’s geographically close neighbour, plays a vital role. The previous government in Male expanded bilateral ties with India, specifically in the defence and security sectors. The government at present will soon review over a hundred Agreements stuck with India by the previous administration. Maldives is just 70 nautical miles away from Lakshadweep’s Minicoy Island and 300 nautical miles away from the Indian mainland. It is strategically situated in the centre of the commercial sea lanes in the IOR, which adds to its regional importance.
China’s state media outlet Global Times recently asserted China portraying a skeptical image of India as a dominant figure in the Indian Ocean region. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar countered this assertion, emphasising that the pivotal change in this area is the strengthening relationship between India and its neighbouring nations. It is essential to acknowledge that labelling India as a bully is misleading, as such conduct does not align with a bully’s actions. A genuine bully would not extend $4.5 billion in aid to neighbouring countries in need, supply vaccines to other nations during the COVID-19 pandemic, or make exceptions to their rules to accommodate food, fuel, or fertiliser demands, all in response to the complexities arising from conflicts in other regions, Jaishankar observed.
Meanwhile, President Muizzu stated that the Maldivian government is working on acquiring facilities and machines to conduct hydrological surveys independently within the mainland Maldives. This will enable the Male to conduct an underwater survey for features and create charts without external assistance. Previously, the administration of President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih had agreed with India to conduct such surveys, but President Muizzu’s government decided not to renew the contract. He emphasised the importance of owning the information about the country’s underwater features, as they are part of the nation’s heritage. The recent hydrographic survey partnership with India, undertaken in January 2021, is proceeding in various categories and is a piece of a contract signed by Indian PM Modi during his visit to the Maldives three years ago. The Maldivian government believes that conducting these surveys independently will benefit the nation’s environment, reduce sea vessels running aground on reefs, and help identify the most suitable sea routes for travel.
The recent military assistance agreement between China and the Maldives has raised concerns about potential national security threats to India, particularly in the Indian Ocean Region. This strategically crucial area is witnessing a shift in dynamics, making it essential to monitor how the Indian government will react and respond to these changing circumstances. India may need to carefully review its alliances and partnerships to maintain its influential position and ensure its safety in the area.
Punit Shyam Gore
