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Tensions in the Indo-Pacific are escalating once again, raising fears that a China-Taiwan war may be on the horizon. The United States appears to be increasing strategic pressure on its regional allies—notably Japan and Australia—to bolster defences around Taiwan, in anticipation of potential military aggression from China.
According to reports, U.S. officials have been urging both Japan and Australia to prepare for military involvement in Taiwan’s defence. The Trump administration is said to have pushed its allies to clarify whether they would send troops or provide support in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
It has drawn comparisons to the prelude of the Russia-Ukraine war, where NATO’s eastern expansion and troop movements were cited as a major flashpoint. Analysts suggest a similar dynamic may now be unfolding in East Asia, with the Taiwan Strait at the centre.
Australia Pushes Back Against U.S. Pressure
However, the U.S. may not have anticipated the resistance it is receiving, particularly from Australia. Responding to Washington’s pressure, Australian officials have made it clear that they will not deploy troops unless a war actually breaks out.
Australia’s Defence Industry Minister emphasised that national sovereignty comes first, stating:
“We will not discuss hypothetical scenarios. We will make decisions based on real situations, not assumptions.”
In other words, Canberra is refusing to commit pre-emptively to any involvement in a potential Taiwan conflict, signalling a rift in the otherwise strong U.S.-Australia defence alliance.
Japan Remains Ambiguous
Japan, another crucial U.S. ally in the region, has not yet taken a clear position on the matter. While Tokyo has increased military cooperation with both the U.S. and Taiwan in recent years, it has stopped short of making public promises regarding direct involvement in a conflict.
The Pentagon’s Concerns and Strategic Calculations
Sources indicate that U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defence Policy, Elbridge Colby, recently raised the issue in high-level discussions with both Japanese and Australian defence officials. The U.S. reportedly inquired about its military posture in the event that the Taiwan situation escalates into war.
Australia’s response was blunt: “We’ll decide when the time comes.” This cautious stance underlines Canberra’s reluctance to be drawn into a U.S.-China confrontation prematurely.
Critics argue that the U.S. is attempting to outsource the first line of resistance to its allies. Former Trump administration officials reportedly questioned why the U.S. doesn’t itself guarantee Taiwan’s defence more explicitly if it expects others to do so.
Although the U.S. maintains no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, it remains Taiwan’s largest arms supplier under the Taiwan Relations Act, which commits Washington to help the island maintain self-defence capabilities.
However, many see this as a strategic ambiguity—supporting Taiwan without fully committing to its defence, which creates pressure for regional allies to fill in the gaps. It has sparked accusations of double standards.
A Brewing Conflict or Strategic Bluff?
While an immediate war between China and Taiwan may not be inevitable, the current climate of diplomatic pressure, military posturing, and strategic ambiguity is dangerously reminiscent of the early days of the Ukraine crisis.
Team BharatShakti
