Editor’s Note
The article discusses the potential impact of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s passing on the relationship between India and Iran. Raisi was deeply committed to strengthening ties between India and Iran. Even though Raisi is no longer able to guide the growth of the relationship, Iran’s strategic geographical location and its oil resources are significant enough for India to maintain the bond that has been fostered by both countries thus far.
A sudden geopolitical shift occurred when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi for the first time during the 22nd Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting on 16 September 2022. Within the next nine months, Iran was admitted as a full member of the SCO, and Prime Minister Modi chaired the 23rd virtual session. Raisi also returned the favour by pursuing a strong “Look East Policy”, particularly targeting the development of Chabahar Port – the albatross around India’s neck.
Raisi was an astute jurist and Islamist Machiavellian with strong backing from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Council (IRGC) and the Astan-e Qods-e Razavi – the country’s richest foundation. In short, he knew how and when to use his social capital. He began by embracing the six pillars of Iran–India relations: Dusti (friendship), Tijarat (trade), Hambastegi (solidarity), Hamkari (cooperation), Masalehe (compromise) and Tars (fear of external threat).
His Presidency began on 3 August 2021, with an explicit mention of his “close ties with India.” Several reasons explain his preference. First, his mentor, Ruhollah Khomeini – Iran’s first Supreme Leader – had family roots in Barabanki in Uttar Pradesh in the 18th century. Secondly, Raisi was born in the eastern province of Khorasan, which boasts trade with India via the Silk Road since before the advent of Islam. The architectural elements of charbaghs (four-storey gardens), iwans (vaulted rooms), or the Parsi community – followers of the Persian prophet Zoroaster – have their historical roots in Khorasan.
Finally, the overall number of overseas Indian communities in Iran currently stands at 10,765 – especially the Punjabis and Gujaratis who originally migrated to the cities of Tehran, Birijand, Zabol and Mashhad. Raisi, who was an ardent follower of the Nizam-e-Moghadas (Iran’s holy order), also deplored the plight of Shia Muslims – 15% of Muslims in India – as a “minority within a minority.”
At the same time, Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to Iran in 2016, during Rouhani’s tenure, failed to represent a paradigm shift in India-Iran relations. Although 12 agreements were signed between India and Iran, and 500 million dollars were poured into the development of Iran’s Chabahar port, this ultimately fell on deaf ears. Modi had declared at the time, “Once we make up our minds, the distance between Kaashi and Kaashan is only half a step.” He used the metaphors of Kashi (pilgrimage) and Kaashan (famous for its carpets) as a diplomatic dalliance of lexis.
With the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan in 2021, the road to the port of Chabahar was paved with delays and obstacles. The palpable ikhtilaf (disagreement) was in the air as India and Iran had different views on the presence of US troops in Afghanistan. Iran adopted the temporary approach of “covert and overt” and “appeasement and ambivalence” towards the Taliban. In contrast, India adopted a proactive approach, and Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar made two important trips to Iran. On 6 July 2021, Jaishankar was the first foreign head of state to meet the then-elected President Raisi and witnessed Raisi’s swearing-in ceremony later.
Iran later announced its admission to the BRICS on 24 August 2023, with official membership to begin on January 1, 2024. Despite US sanctions, Iran under Raisi sought global engagement, trade agreements and a platform to challenge the dominance of the US dollar. Soon, in February 2024, Iran granted Indian tourists a 15-day visa-free trip. On 13 May, Iran and India signed the historic ten-year agreement for the Iranian port of Chabahar. The agreement replaces one-year contracts previously signed to maintain port operations. The contract was signed by Indian Ports Global Limited (IPGL) and the Port & Maritime Organization of Iran, replacing the previous agreement of 2016.
Against the backdrop of such breakthroughs, the tragic demise of President Raisi casts a massive shadow of uncertainty on the fate of Chabahar port, rupee trade opportunities and people-to-people contacts. A diplomatic visit by President Raisi to India was planned for this year. His manoeuvring on the Kashmir issue, even if Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif coaxed him during his three-day official trip to Pakistan in April 2024, had diplomatic undertones favourable to India. India and Iran were also about to discuss the resumption of oil imports, which were supposed to be at 480,000 barrels per day by 2019 and which suffered a major setback due to the fear of US sanctions.
Iran’s central importance as a choke point in the Gulf of Aden, the Red Sea and the Mediterranean cannot be overlooked by the world. Although Ayatollah Khameini is still in charge of major foreign policy decisions, it would be a herculean task for the theocratic state to find a President who is respected by the diversity within the IRGC, the judiciary and the legislature. Due to its geostrategic location, South Asia, Central Asia, and West Asia converge, Iran is the only strategic partner that can help India compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. In the longer run, the advancing age of Supreme Leader Khameini heralds the inevitability of succession. Against this backdrop, the domestic political situation in Iran will change, which will also have an impact on the country’s foreign policy. The far-reaching effects of the Gaza conflict and its potential to trigger “indirect wars” that extend beyond the borders are a major concern for political decision-makers in Delhi.
Nevertheless, it must be remembered that “Iranians and Indians are like two brothers, who, according to a Persian legend, had separated from each other, one going east and the other to the west. Their families had forgotten about each other, and the only thing that remained in common were the snatches of a few old tunes, which they still played on their flutes. It was through these tunes that, after a lapse of centuries, the two families recognised each other and were reunited,” as written by Nehru in ‘A Discovery of India.’ Regardless of who is at the helm, Iran and India must cultivate the politics of yâdgâr (remembrance) to survive the uncertain times ahead together.
Dr. Shubhda Chaudhary
