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The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) is facing its most critical test yet. A steep escalation in trade tensions between the United States and India has cast a long shadow over the alliance, threatening to erode the very foundation of trust that underpins its vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific.
The flashpoint: a 50% tariff imposed on Indian imports by U.S. President Donald Trump, citing New Delhi’s continued energy trade with Russia. While ostensibly framed as a punitive measure tied to the Ukraine conflict, analysts and officials in both capitals increasingly view the move as a pressure tactic to extract trade concessions from India, particularly in protected sectors like agriculture and pharmaceuticals.
But the fallout is far from economic alone. The tariffs have triggered a geopolitical situation that could fracture the unity of the Quad, just months before India is due to host the Quad Leaders’ Summit, an event now clouded in uncertainty.
“We could be heading into a needless crisis that unravels a quarter century of hard-won gains with India,” warned Ashley Tellis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Strategic Partnership Under Pressure
Since its revival in 2017, the Quad, with India, the U.S., Japan, and Australia as members, has become a central pillar of regional strategy to counterbalance China’s growing influence. What made the Quad unique was its ability to accommodate India’s strategic autonomy while still advancing shared goals in security, infrastructure, maritime domain awareness, and critical technologies.
That balancing act is now under threat.
India’s government has officially condemned the tariffs as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,” while quietly exploring options to mitigate the damage, including potential recalibration of its Russian energy imports or discreet engagement with U.S. trade negotiators.
Australia and Japan Push Ahead
Even as U.S.-India tensions rise, the other two Quad members, Japan and Australia, continue deepening their regional partnerships.
“Australia’s $10 billion deal to acquire 11 Mogami-class frigates from Japan marks a significant strategic shift away from traditional U.S. and UK suppliers,” said Mahadevan Shankar, Founder & CEO of Arzuh International, based in Australia.
He highlighted a trilateral initiative between Japan, Australia, and India (JAI) focused on joint research for undersea surveillance, critical minerals, and advanced manufacturing as proof that Quad-aligned efforts are not stalling altogether.
“JAI’s supply chain partnerships and technology collaborations are progressing well. The aircraft engine manufacturing and undersea detection technologies reflect a long-term strategic commitment,” Shankar added.
India, for its part, has intensified cooperation with Southeast Asian partners as well. New Delhi recently completed joint naval exercises with the Philippines in the South China Sea and continues supplying BrahMos missile systems to bolster regional deterrence.
Yet, experts agree, these efforts could be undermined if trust between Washington and New Delhi continues to erode.
“The Quad was always meant to be flexible. But that flexibility was built on mutual respect, not pressure tactics,” noted a former Indian foreign service official familiar with regional dynamics.
Strategic Autonomy vs. Strategic Drift
India’s stance within the Quad has always been unique. As former Ambassador (Mrs) Narinder Chauhan explained: “India remains the only Quad member outside of any military alliance — yet it’s the one that lends its name to the entire ocean. It’s too early to write the Quad’s obituary, but we need to watch how the U.S.-China deal evolves, and how much heft the U.S. will lend to the Indo-Pacific strategy.”
Chauhan also noted that India’s enduring strategic autonomy, while once seen as a strength within the Quad, may now be viewed as an obstacle if Washington seeks more alignment on its global agenda.
Meanwhile, talks are reportedly underway to revive the Russia-India-China trilateral framework, raising concerns in Washington. President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit New Delhi later this year, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to travel to Beijing later this month, his first visit there since 2018.
What Lies Ahead
Whether the Quad can survive this latest shock may hinge on one question: Can the U.S. and India de-escalate quietly, behind closed doors, before their dispute becomes a geopolitical rupture?
Quad insiders say Australia and Japan may now play the role of quiet mediators, working to prevent this rift from derailing the broader Indo-Pacific vision.
For now, the Quad remains intact, but not unshaken. Its future and its credibility as a counterweight to China depend on how swiftly the U.S. and India can rebuild the trust that once made this alliance more than just a talking point.
Huma Siddiqui
