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9 Comments

  1. 2
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    Ajay Chaturvedi

    Good and comprehensive analysis.

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  2. 3
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    Samindranath Mukherjee

    Well perceived and nicely analysed.

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  3. 4
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    Rabindra

    Pakistan is the key to solving the Kashmir issue , specially so after abrogations of Article 370 and Article 35 A .

    Yesterday Pakistan Parliament passed an unanimous declaration Resolution 7.8.2019.
    Kashmir is the unfinished agenda of independence for Pakistan.
    It has fought three wars over it,organised and run an insurgency in Kashmir now for over 30 yrs .
    This resolution of yesterday of Pakistan reaffirm s their stand .

    Earlier US and the Muslim world were with them in their quest to obtain Kashmir .

    But today US is definitely looking to get a major part of Indian Arms import order(India is the largest importer ) and therefore a close friend today of India.
    Pakistan cannot bank on its support.

    Muslim world is in disarray. Even Palestine has been forgotten by the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran are trying to have their own spheres of influence.
    US and Russia are main actors in here.

    Pakistan isn’t a force in Muslim world anymore or anywhere in the world.Its more a pariah state due to it being a fountainhead Of Terrorism.

    China, even with its commitment in CPEC will not support Pakistan against India as we are its one of the main trading partner.

    Pakistan hardly has any support to implement this resolution of yesterday , either in West or the Muslim world.

    It’s too too weak economically too.

    But Pakistan is audacious, that is its USP since 47. India needs to be cautious.

    This resolution is definitely commendable act for Pakistan Parliament standing firm on their commitment to support Kashmiri s and now openly with Military assistance.

    But this vile nation s Military is the bane of S Asia, earlier too to , their entire Kashmir policy is conceptualised and executed by in Military.

    I think we will be able to weather out the little storm Pakistan will raise Internationally.

    We are today a Nation to reckon with in the Comity of Nations.
    Yes, US may dillydally as it needs Pakistan for talks with Taliban and also the surface comn routes to Afghanistan.

    But the lure of Arms sales will tilt them towards us .

    There is no denying that its Kashmir that holds together an otherwise disparate deeply divided regions of Pakistan.

    Strange, but on the strength of this binding , the divide vanishes and they have challenged the Indian might since 47 and are now nuclear and missile powered in their quest to wrest Kashmir, though being downright poor.

    India must always disrupt Pakistan, be Balochs or Nn Areas or in Punjab. It’s not only tit for tat but also a show of strength to disturb them at will.We must.
    To support Balochs, we must have Afghanistan with us and thereby must become a voice in their peace talks. We seemed to be sidelined.

    Iranian support is needed to disturb Pakistan. But internationally supporting Iran right now is very very difficult for India. Our oil imports from our third largest supplier is down to a trickle. It’s a trade off for buying S 400 and hoping for a CATSAA waiver from US ?
    Our Chabahar project too is jeopardy.

    To win over the substantial portion of Kashmir population, disillusioned by our Presidential Order to nullify Article 370 is the mountain the State of India will have climb steadily to bring about the changes it has envisaged for the people of Kashmir, to enable them to become part of India through heart and soul.

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  4. 5
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    Brig RK Mohan (Retd))

    Your last para is the crux of the issue. Growth and nothing but growth would convince the population.
    The UTs have to be treated at par with Varanasi and Amethi constituencies.

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  5. 6
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    SOUGOTO

    Sir.
    Good thoughts options and all meaningful . Could go either way.

    Revoking 370 is the first step as said.

    Who would let go the apple cart so easily.

    The govt did well to inculcate good foreign policy and muster close ties with Middle East, China to some extent, USA , EU and others — thus muted response.

    Once The 144 and other bans is lifted we may see some red dots in now prefect white scale.

    Rgds
    Sougoto

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  6. 7
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    Col Ranjit Singh

    Very well articulated Sir. I agree the bigger challenge now is to bring the youth in valley to main stream and ensure multi prong approach to ensure jobs and quality education.

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  7. 8
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    Ranjan S Chand

    A good analysis of the current situation and the portents for the near future.
    Your scenarios are quite realistic and relevant and one is certain that the Government too would have looked st all possible options before taking the decision.
    It was a long time coming but one has to acknowledge the decision making ability of the present Govt based on its mandate!

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  8. 9
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    Deepak Sinha

    Well put, makes great sense

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