Editor’s Note
The recent alterations in key leadership positions within the PLA’s Rocket Force and the Eastern Theatre seem to stem from the imperative of unwavering allegiance demanded by the apex Chinese Communist Party leadership. This realignment also offers the newly appointed leaders sufficient time prior to China’s execution of its ‘stepping-stone strategy,’ which encompasses the acquisition of several of Taiwan’s peripheral islands. The Chief of the US Navy had issued a cautionary statement, stressing the necessity for military readiness in anticipation of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2024.
The acceleration in Chinese military preparedness for a potential Taiwan invasion has been triggered by President Xi Jinping’s recent actions in replacing the commanders of the elite People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force and the Eastern Theatre Command. In a surprise move, China has switched over the leadership within the Eastern Theatre Command, which holds strategic significance due to its geographical jurisdiction covering the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait – key areas for launching any potential attacks on Taiwan.
Nanjing TV station “Nanjing News” reported on August 3rd that significant leadership changes were made in the Eastern Theatre Command. The Air Force Commander and Political Commissar positions have been subject to replacement. The commissar represents the Communist Party and monitors its control within the PLA. It has been disclosed that Wu Junbao has discreetly assumed the role of Eastern Theatre Air Force Commander. Prior to this, Wu Junbao held the position of deputy commander within the Air Force of the Central Theatre of the Communist Party of China. He has now transitioned to his new responsibilities. Wu Junbao’s background includes notable roles such as chief of staff, division commander, and Shanghai Air Force Base commander within the Air Force of the former Nanjing Military Region of the Communist Party of China.
On 1st August, Xinhua Daily, the official media outlet of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), conveyed that there has been a change in the position of the Political Commissar within the Eastern Theatre Command. Liu Qingsong, formerly the political commissar of the Northern Theatre Command, has assumed the role of Political Commissar for the Eastern Theatre Command. Liu Qingsong has served as the deputy political commissar within the Eastern Theatre Command and as the political commissar of the Eastern Theater Command Navy. Notably, in January 2022, he was elevated to the rank of general while serving as the political commissar within the Northern Theatre command.
The Chinese military is organised into five primary geographical divisions: the eastern, southern, western, northern, and central regions. Situated in Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, the Eastern Theatre Command exercises authority over the military forces within six provincial-level administrative areas. These regions encompass Jiangsu Province, Shanghai City, Zhejiang Province, Anhui Province, Jiangxi Province, and Fujian Province. Three distinct single-service commands operate within this theatre: the Army, the East China Sea Fleet, and the Air Force.
Drawing aerial footage and expert analysis reports from Japanese media indicate that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is intensifying its efforts to enhance its readiness for a potential encirclement of Taiwan. Should a conflict arise spanning the Taiwan Strait, the Eastern Theatre holds pivotal geographical significance as the central hub for launching attacks on Taiwan. Additionally, it constitutes the primary military force in this context. Troops from other theatre commands are also expected to converge in the Eastern Theatre, orchestrating a concerted invasion strategy aimed at Taiwan.
Emerging information indicates that the PLA’s Strategic Support Force diligently engages in round-the-clock efforts, displaying heightened activity as it prepares for potential military action. The core objective of the Strategic Support Force is to provide comprehensive assistance for battlefield operations encompassing aerospace, space, cyber, and electromagnetic domains.
China Shakes Up Elite Nuclear Leadership
The Chinese Communist Party also shook up the leadership responsible for managing its nuclear capabilities. The Chinese state media on 31st July named Wang Houbin as Commander of the elite People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force and Xu Xisheng as the Political Commissar of the force. This development has prompted speculation into the internal dynamics within the upper echelons of the military division entrusted with overseeing China’s formidable array of nuclear weaponry and ballistic missiles.
Strikingly, there is a noticeable absence of information available to the public concerning the former leader, Li Yuchao, an experienced figure within the force who held the position of Commander for just over a year – a relatively brief period. Similarly, there has not been any news regarding the previous commissar, Xu Zhongbo. Wang, the recently appointed Commander, formerly held the appointment of deputy commander within the PLA Navy. In contrast, Xu, the new Political Commissar, previously served as the deputy political commissar of the Southern Theatre Command.
The simultaneous replacement of two key figures within the Rocket Force, involving military personnel from different branches – Wang from the Navy and Xu Xisheng from the air force – is an unconventional step in military parlance. The unusual move comes just a week after the abrupt and surprising removal of China’s former Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, from his position, without giving any explanation.
While it remains unclear what triggered the changes, it also comes at a time of heightened importance for the branch. This division is responsible for managing China’s missile programs, encompassing both its nuclear-tipped weapons and the shorter-range missiles that were recently employed to assert pressure on Taiwan – an autonomous region that the ruling Communist Party of China claims as its territory and has not excluded the option of securing through military means.
The recent reorganization holds significant implications, particularly at a juncture where China aims to bolster its nuclear capabilities as a deterrent against potential U.S. involvement in a scenario involving Taiwan. Military analysts are skeptical about the reshuffling of personnel and its underlying reasons, casting doubts on the force’s reliability and effectiveness in fulfilling its mission.
This development prompts multiple questions due to its exceptional nature. It is unconventional for Beijing to appoint outsiders to lead the Rocket Force. Equally unusual is the simultaneous replacement of the commander and the political commissar within a military division. Adding to the intrigue, the vanishing of previous leaders over the past months raises further questions. However, the most unconventional aspect of the announcement is the selection of a former PLA Navy officer for the position of Rocket Force Commander.
Nuke Missile Silos
The change in leadership coincides with mounting indications of China’s nuclear capabilities expansion, consequently underscoring the heightened significance of the Rocket Force. Previously referred to as the PLA Second Artillery Force until 2016, its role has gained even greater prominence.
Recently, satellite imagery has revealed the construction of numerous silos in Chinese desert areas intended for intercontinental ballistic missiles. Parallelly, the U.S. Department of Defence anticipates a considerable surge in the count of nuclear warheads within Beijing’s arsenal over the upcoming decade.
Should China persist in its current trajectory of expanding its nuclear arsenal, projections from a 2022 report by the U.S. Defence Department on China’s military advancements suggest that the country could possess around 1,500 nuclear warheads by the year 2035.
This scenario has raised apprehensions among certain analysts, mainly due to the limited information about the recent alterations in leadership. This concern is accentuated by the need for international discourse concerning nuclear armaments, particularly the absence of substantial military communication between China and the United States.
Taiwan Blockade
Drawing insights from a sequence of military manoeuvres undertaken by China in the eastern vicinity of Taiwan, analysts are of the view that the PLA is laying the groundwork for an impending “Taiwan blockade.” According to a report by Japanese media outlet Nikkei Asia, as China has effectively expanded its maritime presence into the East China Sea and South China Sea, further advancement into the Western Pacific would enable it to enact a comprehensive blockade of Taiwan from three distinct directions.
Concerning China’s actions in various spheres concerning Taiwan, the report highlights that Chinese official vessels frequently breach Japan’s territorial waters in the East China Sea. While China maintains a keen interest in Taiwan, President Xi Jinping’s attitude towards the military is notable, as he consistently stresses the importance of “loyalty.”
On August 3rd, an editorial in the CCP’s Military Daily underscored that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) functions as an armed entity responsible for executing the political objectives of the CCP. The commentary emphasised the necessity for unwavering loyalty to the party, characterised by “being singular, thorough, unconditional, free from impurities, and devoid of any deviation”. It called on all soldiers to “prepare for war” and be loyal to the Chinese Communist Party. Some China observers say the move indicates that the leadership in Beijing is asserting its authority as it fears losing control of the military.
However, numerous examples demonstrate a lack of loyalty towards Xi Jinping, which forced him to undertake a rare collective replacement of the leadership within the Rocket Army and PLA commands. Additionally, there have been suspicions surrounding Ju Gan, the commander of the Strategic Support Force, and his deputy commander, Lieutenant General Shang Hong, who went missing in September of the previous year.
Ravi Shankar
