Editor’s Note
The war in Ukraine has thrown up enormous lessons. The most important is how a much lesser defender stalled a far superior force. The Russians had grand plans when they advanced from the East and Belarus but encountered a different mix of weapons and modes of warfare. The Ukrainians have been able to combine their holdings of Russian Air Defence systems with those that NATO has provided, and by using drones and AI, they have structured a new modus operandi to ably contest Russian capabilities.
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Over two years into the war in Ukraine, the battlefronts have become stagnant. Both sides have built elaborate defensive lines reminiscent of the trench warfare of the First World War. However, these have not prevented either side from launching attacks, and the gains have been limited and come at a huge cost. While these fortified lines of defence look archaic and somewhat frozen, the skies above have a different story to tell.
With the conflict moving slowly on the ground, using missiles and drones has seen an uptick. These drone and missile strikes are only likely to increase. It is a reminder that war-fighting priorities must adjust to produce and sustain large inventories of drones, missiles, and guided munitions. Investing in multi-layered layered air defence systems and platforms is another emerging priority to counter these threats. Interestingly, in this process, the utility of tanks, other mechanised platforms, and combat aircraft, though much more relevant, has come under a cloud. Therefore, policymakers must draw the right lessons now to better prepare for future wars.
The fighting is more focused on the increased low-level aerial attacks in Ukraine, while the land-front has become stagnant, progressively. Shooting from the air or shooting into the air are the two paradigms by which this war has been reduced.
Shooting from the air
The world has not seen this intensity of low-level missile and drone strikes. So far, Russia is believed to have fired more than 7,000 missiles to target Ukrainian positions and infrastructure. With an estimated capacity to produce hundred odd missiles a month, the Russian missile strikes might not be sustainable in the long term. No wonder there are reports of missile exports by North Korea to beef up its inventory. Russia is also planning to undertake large-scale production of Shahed kamikaze drones in collaboration with Iran. With missiles in short supply, Russia is turning to drones to attack Ukrainian positions and also to help its missiles reach their targets.
On the other hand, Ukraine is using its ingenuity to counter Russia’s threats. They have developed their drone fleet, some dozen different types of drones, to strike targets deep inside Russia. Some drones are known to have hit oil refineries as deep as 800 km inside Russia. Many of the tanks destroyed in recent months have been by using FPV drones. These inexpensive drones that cost a few hundred dollars have become a ubiquitous weapon. Carrying a few kilograms of explosives, these first-person view (FPV) drones are potent enough to immobilise a tank. With Russia losing tanks at a high rate, Moscow could risk its substantial numerical edge in tanks.
Ukraine is also developing AI-enabled kamikaze drones that would be difficult to shoot down and use AI to guide themselves through safe air corridors to hit their intended target. Imagine a swarm of drones sent to a specific geographical area to destroy everything in the designated kill zone. One could launch the initial strikes with cheap FPV drones while the AI drones wait behind to process all the visual information of the FPV strike to come in for the final precision strike. AI-guided drones might be the next big thing that would not only make the drones harder to intercept but more likely to hit the target.
Shooting in the air
Russian reliance on missile strikes has marked the war in Ukraine to achieve a decisive victory on the ground. Its use of cruise and ballistic missiles has been a key strategy. Early in the conflict, Russia’s missiles targeted Ukrainian installations, formations and depots; lately, it has been using its arsenal to break Ukraine’s will to fight by putting its population and critical infrastructure at grave risk. Russia possesses an impressive inventory of missiles and guided munitions, including Iskander-M/K, NK-23/Hwasong-11, Kinzhal, Kh-22/32/31P, Kh-59 PGMs, Kh-101/555 and Zircon systems.
On the other hand, Ukraine’s ingenious use of a mix of air defence systems has successfully limited the Russian missile attacks. The backbone of these air defences has been the Soviet-origin SA-8, SA-10 and SA-11 platforms, designed to intercept short and medium-range missile threats. Western-supplied platforms have also been crucial to the sustained air defence effort, including the IRIS-T, NASAMS, Aspide and Gepard systems. Ukraine has also effectively used MANPADS to respond to slow-moving incoming threats. However, the Patriot missile system is the most important platform being used—the only system designed to counter the fast-moving ballistic missile threats.
However, what is interesting now is how the Ukrainians are increasingly turning to improvised drones to fight back the Russian attacks. Ukraine is using a network of microphones to sense incoming targets. The microphones classify what type of drone or missile is coming in and its direction and trajectory just by using acoustics. This innovation compensates for limited munitions in its inventory. By linking these drone-based acoustic sensors to its air defence systems, they can shoot down most of the Shahid suicide drones overflying their positions.
Some lessons
A few aspects stand out. First, the Ukrainians have done well in using air defence systems to counter the Russian missile strikes. Second, Ukraine lacks air defence assets to protect all its cities and battlefronts. The lack of resources makes it vulnerable to the next round of Russian offensive. Any delay in the supply of munitions from the West makes Ukraine vulnerable to Russia’s onslaught. On the other hand, the Russian military industries are reviving, and the future pace and scale of the Ukraine conflict will be influenced by the resurgent state of the Russian economy and its military industry.
Third, the frozen battlelines between the two warring sides are leading to a new arms race in terms of widespread innovation and stockpiling of drones and missiles. While Russia is seeking to augment its missile inventory, Ukraine is trying to acquire more and more air defence systems to stall the Russian missile attacks. Similarly, Ukraine is expanding its indigenous drone programme, while Russia is trying to ramp up the production of Shahed drones within the country. Both sides have fully realised the importance of drone and missile strikes when battle tanks and fighter aircraft are unable to break the military impasse along the fortified frontline.
In a possible asymmetrical conflict, Indian forces should expect to be targeted like Ukraine, and the lessons learned from its defence should prove valuable. Despite being outnumbered, the Ukrainians have done well in limiting the Russian advance. The war also demonstrates that the side with the most missiles and drones has an advantage. And now, with AI-driven algorithms to navigate and attack, one can get the most out of drones and fight much above one’s weight.
Lt Gen Harinder Singh (Retd)
