The nuclear policies and capabilities of India, Pakistan, and China profoundly influence the strategic landscape of South Asia. India upholds a credible minimum deterrent and a ‘no-first-use’ policy, focusing on maintaining stability through assured retaliation. Pakistan, conversely, adopts a ‘first-use’ policy aimed at deterring India’s conventional military superiority. With its rapid nuclear modernisation, China seeks to challenge the strategic balance maintained by global superpowers like the United States and Russia. These distinct nuclear doctrines and recent advancements in their arsenals and missile defence systems demand a comprehensive analysis to understand their broader implications for regional and global security.
India Overtakes Pakistan in Nuclear Warhead Numbers
At the start of 2024, the 9 nuclear-armed states possessed an estimated 12 121 nuclear weapons. New numbers out now ➡️ https://t.co/hwXGg3URBP
USA🇺🇸 5 044
Russia🇷🇺 5 580
UK🇬🇧 225
France🇫🇷 290
China🇨🇳 500
India🇮🇳 172
Pakistan🇵🇰 170
North Korea🇰🇵50
Israel🇮🇱 90#SIPRIYearbook pic.twitter.com/GEKbCl8vEd— SIPRI (@SIPRIorg) June 16, 2024
India’s overtaking of Pakistan in nuclear warhead numbers marks a pivotal milestone in regional atomic dynamics. As of January 2024, according to the latest SIPRI report, India now possesses an estimated 172 nuclear warheads, surpassing Pakistan’s estimated 170 for the first time in 25 years. While India has added eight nuclear warheads in the past year, Pakistan’s arsenal has remained static, as per the SIPRI report. India’s expansion in nuclear warhead numbers is attributed to its growing arsenal of new missiles such as Agni 5, Shaurya, and K15. The introduction of Agni Prime and K-4 missiles, along with plans to deploy Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) on Agni 5, is expected to increase India’s nuclear capabilities further. These developments aim to maintain a credible second-strike capability and reinforce India’s posture against regional adversaries.
China’s Rapid Expansion of Nuclear Arsenal
According to the report, China’s nuclear arsenal has grown significantly, increasing from 410 to 500 warheads in the past year. This rapid expansion has raised alarms across the Indo-Pacific region, signalling a shift in the balance of power. US officials estimate that China could potentially expand its arsenal to 1500 warheads by 2035. This unprecedented growth suggests a strategic prioritisation of nuclear capabilities, particularly in developing and deploying Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). By the end of this decade, China is expected to have more ICBMs than the US or Russia, reflecting its focus on enhancing long-range strike capabilities and securing a dominant position in global nuclear deterrence. The acceleration of China’s nuclear program underscores the need for increased vigilance and strategic planning among neighbouring countries and global powers.
The Role of Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) in Nuclear Defence Strategy
Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) systems are crucial in nuclear deterrence strategies. India’s BMD program has advanced with the deployment of Phase 1 interceptors, designed to intercept 2000km class missiles, which are pivotal in enhancing defensive capabilities. These systems have raised significant concerns in Pakistan, as they could neutralise a large portion of its nuclear missiles in the event of an attack, thus bolstering India’s second-strike capability.
In November 2022, as part of phase 2 development, India successfully tested the AD1 interceptor, equivalent to the American THAAD system. India is also preparing for the maiden flight test of the AD2 interceptor, a high exo-atmospheric mid-course phase interceptor designed explicitly for 5000km class missiles. It demonstrates India’s commitment to strengthening its BMD capabilities.
China, too, is aggressively advancing its BMD systems. The deployment of the HQ-19 system, capable of intercepting missiles with ranges up to 3000 km, underscores China’s commitment to enhancing its missile defence capabilities. Recent Mid-Course Phase Interceptor tests, comparable to India’s AD2 and the American Standard Missile 3, further demonstrate China’s efforts to bolster its defences against regional and global threats.
Conclusion
India maintains a credible nuclear deterrence against Pakistan with its nuclear warhead numbers, Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), and advanced Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) systems. However, China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal and deployment of sophisticated BMD systems present new challenges. Some experts suggest that these developments may prompt India to increase its atomic warhead numbers to ensure a robust and assured second-strike capability. As geopolitical dynamics evolve in South Asia, India’s strategic responses will continue to play a crucial role in regional stability and security.
Vinay Sadham
