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China’s increasing submarine collaboration with South Asian countries has triggered fresh concerns among Indian defence and maritime analysts. There is growing speculation that these deals are strategically designed to expand Beijing’s intelligence-gathering capabilities in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
Over the past decade, China has steadily supplied both new and old submarines to neighbouring nations, most notably Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, a move that suggests it is less about regional defence support and more about undersea surveillance of India’s maritime activities.
Pakistan: China’s Strategic Undersea Partner
Since 2008, Pakistani submarines, some operating under the guise of anti-piracy patrols, have been occasionally present in Indian maritime zones. While India’s Navy maintains constant surveillance of these vessels, the Chinese involvement in expanding Pakistan’s submarine fleet is raising strategic red flags.
Under Project S-26, China is constructing eight Yuan-class submarines for Pakistan. These air-independent propulsion (AIP) submarines, based on China’s Type 039B platform, are designed for extended underwater endurance and minimal acoustic detectability, key traits for stealth surveillance.
As per the agreement signed in 2015, four of these submarines are being built in China and the other four at Karachi Shipyard, with deliveries scheduled between 2022 and 2028. The third submarine has already been delivered, according to Chinese media.
Analysts warn that these submarines give China not only leverage in the Arabian Sea but also a discreet means to collect sonar and acoustic data from Indian waters, possibly under the Pakistani flag, making detection and attribution more complex for Indian defence systems.
Bangladesh and Myanmar: Old Submarines, New Opportunities
Beyond Pakistan, China has also transferred decommissioned submarines to smaller regional navies. Bangladesh purchased two Type-035G Ming-class submarines from China in 2016 at a reported cost of $203 million, while Myanmar received one Type-035B Ming-class submarine in 2021.
Though these vessels are outdated by modern naval standards, military experts caution that their real value lies in access.
Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina submarine base, recently developed with significant Chinese involvement, is a case in point. Intelligence reports suggest that over 230 Chinese personnel were involved in the project. While the base strengthens Dhaka’s naval capabilities, it may also provide China with a strategic foothold close to India’s eastern seaboard.
Routine visits by Chinese technicians for ‘upgrades’ could be an opportunity to monitor Indian maritime activity under the radar.
A Broader Espionage Blueprint?
Military observers believe this pattern, arming regional navies with new or refurbished submarines and maintaining a continuous technical presence, is part of China’s broader attempt to extend its underwater surveillance network across the Indian Ocean.
With multiple access points via Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, Bangladesh’s new submarine base, and Myanmar’s naval facilities, China appears to be building a maritime intelligence web around India.
Moreover, given that submarines possess unique acoustic signatures, Chinese-origin vessels operating under foreign flags may blur identification, complicating India’s maritime tracking efforts.
India’s Response
The Indian Navy continues to monitor foreign submarine activity in the region closely, employing sonar networks, maritime patrol aircraft, and satellite surveillance. Indian defence planners are also accelerating efforts under the Project 75I submarine program and Gaganyaan surveillance satellite initiatives to counter these undersea threats.
With Beijing’s growing presence in the IOR, both above and below the surface, India is expected to enhance cooperation with friendly naval forces through joint patrols, intelligence-sharing, and capacity building to safeguard its maritime domain.
Huma Siddiqui
