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Global military expenditure surged to a record $2.718 trillion in 2024 — the sharpest year-on-year increase since the Cold War — reflecting escalating geopolitical tensions and strategic competition. India emerged as the fifth-largest military spender, with a defence budget of $86.1 billion, according to the latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Yet, despite spending nearly nine times more than Pakistan, India remains locked in a complex security dilemma shaped by the growing military assertiveness of China and the persistent volatility with Pakistan.
India’s Defence Spending in Context
India’s defence spending grew by a modest 1.6 per cent over 2023, in contrast to China’s sharp 7 per cent rise to an estimated $314 billion — nearly four times India’s outlay. China’s defence budget alone constituted half of all military spending in Asia and Oceania, marking the 30th consecutive year of growth. Pakistan, meanwhile, allocated $10.2 billion to defence, a fraction of India’s expenditure, but continues to pose asymmetric and sub-conventional challenges along the Western front.
Despite being among the top five global spenders — alongside the United States, China, Russia, and Germany — India’s defence budget reflects a limited capacity for rapid capability enhancement. Only 22 per cent (approximately $21 billion, 1,80,000 crore) of its 2025–26 defence budget is allocated for capital acquisitions — new weapon systems and modernization — while the bulk is consumed by salaries, pensions, and day-to-day operational costs for its 1.3 million active personnel and over 3.4 million pensioners.
The Two-Front Challenge: Asymmetry in Capabilities
India’s core strategic dilemma lies in confronting two nuclear-armed adversaries with divergent threat profiles. China is modernising across all military domains — conventional, cyber, space, and nuclear — with a clearly articulated long-term roadmap to become a dominant regional power by 2035. SIPRI’s report notes that China is expanding stealth aircraft programs, unmanned systems (including underwater vehicles), and advanced cyber and counter-space capabilities. Its creation of dedicated aerospace and cyberspace forces in 2024 signals further institutional consolidation.
Pakistan, although spending far less, continues to invest in tactical nuclear weapons, missile programs, and hybrid warfare capabilities, often acting as a strategic irritant in concert with Chinese objectives.
India’s Structural and Policy Constraints
India’s challenge is not just one of budgeting but of effectiveness. Defence spending remains at 1.9 per cent of GDP — well below the minimum 2.5 per cent often recommended to counter a two-front threat credibly. Compounding the problem is India’s underdeveloped defence industrial base, which sustains its position as the world’s second-largest arms importer. Slow and fragmented procurement processes, limited jointness among the armed forces, and the absence of a clearly defined long-term national military strategy further erode the effectiveness of India’s growing outlay.
Risk of an Arms Race in Asia-Pacific
The SIPRI report highlights that China’s military expansion prompts a regional response. Japan raised its defence budget by 21 per cent to $55.3 billion — its steepest rise since 1952. Taiwan also modestly increased its defence budget to $16.5 billion. These regional shifts, SIPRI warns, could accelerate a dangerous arms race spiral across the Indo-Pacific.
“Major military spenders in the Asia–Pacific region are investing increasing resources into advanced military capabilities. With several unresolved disputes and mounting tensions, these investments risk sending the region into a dangerous arms-race spiral,” said Nan Tian, Director of SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme.
A Critical Juncture for Indian Defence Policy
India’s relatively restrained spending trajectory in 2024 must be seen against the backdrop of an evolving regional security architecture where quality and strategy increasingly outweigh the mere quantum of expenditure. To avoid being strategically outpaced, India needs more than incremental increases — it requires deep reforms in procurement, indigenous capability development, and coherent long-term force planning aligned with its geopolitical ambitions.
Ravi Shankar
Dr Ravi Shankar has over two decades of experience in communications, print journalism, electronic media, documentary film making and new media.
He makes regular appearances on national television news channels as a commentator and analyst on current and political affairs. Apart from being an acknowledged Journalist, he has been a passionate newsroom manager bringing a wide range of journalistic experience from past associations with India’s leading media conglomerates (Times of India group and India Today group) and had led global news-gathering operations at world’s biggest multimedia news agency- ANI-Reuters. He has covered Parliament extensively over the past several years. Widely traveled, he has covered several summits as part of media delegation accompanying the Indian President, Vice President, Prime Minister, External Affairs Minister and Finance Minister across Asia, Africa and Europe.
