This week on Defence Mantra, we discuss how President Donald Trump’s return to office in January 2025 has introduced significant shifts in US foreign policy, particularly concerning China. His administration’s approach combines economic measures, military posturing, and strategic alliances, with India playing a pivotal role in this evolving geopolitical landscape.
The “Mandate for Leadership” document, part of Project 2025, outlines strategic priorities for US defence and foreign policy, focusing on countering China, reforming military priorities, and strengthening international alliances.
The document identifies China as the top security threat to the US, emphasising the need for a robust defence strategy against Beijing’s growing military capabilities, particularly its ambitions regarding Taiwan.
Reforms for US Defence include:
- Prioritise Denial Defence: Focus US defence efforts on countering Chinese military advancements and defending Taiwan, with conventional forces tailored for this purpose.
- Increase Burden-Sharing: Allies must contribute more to defence, particularly in Europe (NATO) and the Indo-Pacific, with the US focusing on nuclear deterrence and specific capabilities.
On the military front, concerns remain about accidental escalations, especially over flashpoints like Taiwan and the South China Sea.
However, when asked if China’s secretive nuclear build-up presents a significant challenge, Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale says nuclear arsenal is only a deterrent, and the bigger threat is a trade war.
Role of India
India is highlighted as a pivotal partner in countering China. Its strategic location, economic growth, and security role in the Indo-Pacific make it essential for US interests. The US should strengthen its bilateral relationship with India and integrate it into the Quad (US, India, Japan, Australia) framework, aimed at promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific. Additionally, the US should encourage economic cooperation through initiatives like USAID, helping advance infrastructure, trade, and digital connectivity in India and other like-minded countries in the region.
In late 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia, signaling a thaw in India-China relations. This rapprochement may be influenced by India’s desire to hedge its bets amid escalating US-China tensions.
Despite this, the US is likely to seek stronger security ties with India. The second Trump administration may demand pragmatic diplomacy from India, leveraging its strategic importance while managing US demands.
In conclusion, President Trump’s strategies to counter China encompass a blend of economic policies, military considerations, and strategic alliances. India’s role is particularly significant, as it navigates its relationships with both the US and China in this complex geopolitical environment.
