Editor’s Note
Maldives’ geographical location lends unique importance to this small Indian Ocean state. Its relevance for smooth traffic along SLOC across the Indian Ocean is undeniable. The current regime came to power on an Indian Out rhetoric and reaffirmed its pro-China inclinations immediately after the elections. However, the Maldivian endeavour to repair its relations with India has also been quite deliberate. India has a long and patient game to play ahead as it attempts to draw the Maldives back firmly in a relationship of trust.
Maldives, a tiny archipelago of 185 islands with a population of just 5.5 lakhs, is at the cusp of a reset of relations with its traditional friend, India, in the backdrop of an “Indian Out Campaign” that brought the current President Mohamed Muizzu to power, ousting the “pro-India” regime of Mohd Soli. However, Muizzu’s “China Tilt” has somewhat been balanced by his recent visit to India for the swearing-in ceremony of Modi’s third term. It was after the Maldives faced boycott calls from Indian celebrities and tourists after its Parliamentarians mocked Prime Minister Modi after his January 24 Lakshwadeep visit!
The Controversy
It erupted after PM Modi posted images on “X” of himself snorkelling and walking along a beach in Lakshadweep. Indian tourists made nearly 209,000 trips to Maldives in 2023, making up 11 per cent of its tourists, a market worth $ 5 billion (Rs 4,000 crore). And at 30 per cent, it’s the highest contributor to GDP! Until December 2023, it had received nearly 18 Lakh tourists, almost four times its population last year!
While PM Modi had not mentioned the Maldives anywhere in his `celebrating New Year’ posts, many on social media began questioning why anybody should go to the Maldives when we have such pristine beauty in India. A massive social media war erupted, leading to three Maldivian Ministers and a few MPs using derogatory language against PM Modi. What was a war among trolls was elevated to a diplomatic situation, which led to India’s response. Maldives High Commissioner to India, Ibrahim Shaheeb, was summoned to convey India’s strong concerns over these comments. The Muizzu administration, treading a cautious line, indefinitely suspended three of the Ministers!
Background
There is a context to this- a change in government propped up an anti-India camp to power in the Maldives. Newly elected President Muizzu is clearly a “pro-China man” who, along with former President Abdullah Yameen, fronted the ‘Indian Out’ campaign during elections. He proved this by deciding to ignore India and visiting China first immediately after taking over and signing a host of agreements after meeting President Xi, including some in the security domain, which obviously irked its “traditional friend”.
Strategic Importance of Maldives
India-Maldives relations are very important to both- although there have been ups and downs in the past. However, India has never lost focus on the strategic importance of its neighbour. Politically, India was among the first to recognise Maldives’ independence from the British in 1965 and establish diplomatic relations- which have generally been close and cordial. However, they have experienced fluctuations, particularly under Maldives’ regimes that leaned towards China (President Abdulla Yameen (2013 to 2018) and another that espoused “India First”- under President Solih (from 2018 to 2023).
Geographically, the Maldives’ location in the IOR (Indian Ocean Region) places it in a critical position along South Asia’s major Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOCs), i.e., between the Gulf of Aden and Straits of Malacca, through which 50 per cent of India’s external trade and 80 per cent of its energy imports pass. It makes the Maldives vital for India’s maritime security interests, regional security, and counter-piracy on the seas!
To ensure continuous surveillance in the region, India established a networked coastal radar chain in the Maldives, which is integrated with its own coastal radar system and operated by the Indian Navy. India’s Coast Guard regularly patrols the area, and joint military exercises are conducted annually to enhance security capabilities.
Historically, India has been a ‘first responder’ in times of crisis. It would be pertinent to recall India’s intervention during the 1988 coup attempt, assistance during the 2004 Tsunami, and support during the 2014 water crisis in Male. Also, India gave substantial help during COVID-19, including financial, medical, and logistical support. Besides contributing to Maldives’ healthcare and education sectors, India has also funded infrastructure and development projects, like the Greater Male Connectivity Project and the development of Gulhifalhu Port. Bilateral trade has grown substantially over the years, today accounting for over $ 500 Million as per 2022 data.
For the Maldives, a former Minister echoed, “We depend a lot on Indian tourists’ arrivals. We have a lot of foreign investment coming from India. There are so many levels of engagement – political, government-to-government”.
Why Should India Cede Space to China?
India and China’s presence in the Maldives has been shaped by their respective strategic interests in the IOR. China- Maldives engagement increased during Yameen’s presidency, particularly with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing undertook major infrastructure projects, including upgrading Maldives’ main international airport and constructing a bridge linking Male to Hulhumale (both at the cost of India since the initial contracts for both had gone to Indian companies). This growing presence raised concerns about the Maldives’ indebtedness to China and the potential for “debt trap diplomacy”, akin to what Sri Lanka faced recently.
However, with President Solih elected in 2018, there was a shift towards closer ties with India, marked by Solih initiating an “India First” policy. This policy change led to India providing financial support for community and infrastructure development projects on a large scale.
The dynamics between India and the Maldives are significant in terms of regional stability. The rivalry between India and China in the IOR has implications for regional power balance and maritime security. Maldives, caught in the middle of this geopolitical tug-of-war, faces the challenge of balancing its relationships with both regional powers. Thus, the evolving dynamics of these relationships will continue to shape the regional landscape, impacting the overall stability of the region.
Current Situation
India has politely and, without a fuss, vacated its military personnel from the Island country (numbering a mere 88 personnel). The pullback started on 10 March and was completed by 10 May, President Muizzu’s deadline. It replaced them with civilian personnel to operate the three Dornier aircraft (used for humanitarian assistance & medical evacuations) up to the limit permitted by the Maldives. Despite this reversal, India recently agreed to supply Maldives with some essential food commodities in 2024-25 at its request and without any future export restrictions.
In a turn-around, Muizzu attends Modi’s Swearing-in
In an unexpected but welcome move, President Muizzu accepted India’s invitation, attended the swearing-in ceremony on 8th June, and met Indian leaders, indicating a possible reset of bilateral relations that had dipped to a fresh low! His significant decision reflected the Maldivian government’s desire to engage with the Indian side. After that, Muizzu and his Foreign Minister, Moosa Zamir, had an informal bilateral agreement with his Indian counterpart, Dr Jaishankar, which also focused on bilateral cooperation. Both also expressed their “eagerness to strengthen cooperation in areas of shared values and mutual interest”.
India watchers interpret this as a definite turn-around, called upon by the realization that India and the Maldives know they cannot do without each other. An official explained it further: “Like every sovereign country, the Maldives has every right to develop its relations with other countries. But they must be clear about where they want to take ties with India.”
From “Indian Out” to “Welcome India”: The Turnaround
In the last two months since President Muizzu’s June visit to India, he’s been in a reconciliatory mood. Muizzu recently expressed his “sincere gratitude” to India for having helped in their debt repayment efforts and resuming the Dornier services on the Island for medical evacuations. A $50 million debt has been allowed to be rolled over by SBI for another year, ostensibly based on instructions from the government. Also on the cards is an FTA proposed by the Maldives, which our officials are examining. Their Tourism Minister, Ibrahim Faisal, was in India in July last week, launching roadshows as part of his government’s “Welcome India” campaign to welcome Indian tourists! In short, India’s diplomacy and strategic patience have won again, as repeatedly demonstrated in the South Asian neighbourhood.
The Way Ahead
In the present and ongoing Muizzu era, the Maldives is clearly tilting towards China, as evidenced by his first visit to China after assuming the Presidency, signing agreements on tourism co-op, disaster risk reduction, making the Maldives a blue economy, and elevating the relationship to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership!
Maldives has also decided not to renew an agreement with India on a hydrographic survey of its waters. Most importantly, President Xi has assured full military support to the Maldives in case of any eventuality, which clearly concerns India. Since Maldives allows India to counterbalance China and its growing influence in the IOR, pragmatism dictates that we continue to engage with it diplomatically and trade-wise. Hence, both the IOR neighbours need to address their internal challenges to build a stronger, more resilient and mutually beneficial partnership for the future, ignoring China’s attempts to derail the process. The sooner it happens, the better!
Col (Dr) Bhasker Gupta (Retd)
