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The Indian Air Force’s squadron strength is fast approaching a critical threshold. With current levels dipping below 32 squadrons against an approved strength of 42, and China-Pakistan air cooperation becoming increasingly seamless, India urgently requires a tactical buffer. Experts agree that the immediate induction of six additional squadrons of the Rafale F5 is essential, not as a luxury, but as a strategic imperative.
The Rafale F5, France’s newest evolution of the 4.5+ generation jet, comes equipped with enhanced stealth shaping, upgraded radar and electronic warfare systems, and expanded compatibility with both NATO and indigenous weaponry. For India, this matters. It builds on existing logistics, pilot familiarity, and infrastructure, meaning speed, not just strength.
“Six additional squadrons of the Rafale F5 would act as a critical tactical buffer,” says Group Captain Praveer Purohit (Retd.). “But tactical gaps alone cannot define strategic direction. India must think beyond fleet strength and aim to become a technology originator.”
The Strategic Vacuum: AMCA Is a Decade Away
India’s fifth-generation fighter program, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), remains under development, with induction timelines stretching 8–10 years. That timeline, combined with regional volatility, has triggered a pressing question within the South Block: Can India afford to wait?
The alternative has typically been seen as importing fifth-generation aircraft. But both obvious contenders, Russia’s Su-57 and America’s F-35, represent opposing ends of a problematic spectrum.
“The pivotal dilemma is whether to wait for the indigenous AMCA to mature, or to buy foreign platforms that serve immediate needs but risk long-term dependency,” says Purohit.
The Su-57: An Unfinished Experiment
India’s past collaboration with Russia on the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), based on the Su-57, collapsed under the weight of technical disagreements, poor transparency, and swelling costs. That experience lingers.
Purohit adds: “The Su-57, despite the hype, falters under scrutiny. Low production volumes, murky stealth claims, and dependency on Chinese electronics diminish its viability. Moreover, in most known crucial performance aspects, it falls far short of the F-35.”
For India, investing again in a Russian platform with a legacy of opaque upgrades and incomplete systems would not just be a strategic misstep; it would lock the IAF into a logistical and technological dependency on a power whose own defence industry is under strain.
The F-35: Proven Power, but With Strings
On paper, the American F-35 is unmatched, a fifth-generation platform with combat-proven stealth, cutting-edge sensor fusion, and a robust global support network. But India has been clear: it’s not buying off-the-shelf aircraft without guarantees of technology transfer and sovereign control.
“What I can talk about is our fifth-generation fighter, which will be the AMCA,” said Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh in June. “On F-35A and Sukhoi Su-57 E, whatever has been discussed has been informal. We don’t have any formal consultation going on.”
Further complicating matters is Washington’s unpredictability. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian goods has sparked diplomatic friction. While economic retaliation is off the table, defence cooperation, mainly new high-value deals, is not expected to move forward.
While India may increase imports of U.S. goods to reduce trade surplus, new defence purchases are not under consideration. It then means that the F-35A pitch, pushed personally by Trump during Prime Minister Modi’s February visit, has effectively stalled.
“Despite considering a boost in purchases of American goods, the Modi government is unlikely to buy additional defence equipment from the US,” a source said, adding that Make in India remains the guiding doctrine.
Strategic Dependence vs. Strategic Autonomy
This policy direction creates a paradox. India wants autonomy, but it also needs capability. Neither the Su-57 nor the F-35 allow India to shape their development or influence their evolution.
It is where sixth-generation collaborative projects like the FCAS (France-Germany-Spain) and the GCAP (UK-Japan-Italy) offer a third path: shared ownership of next-generation innovation.
These programs are not mere aircraft acquisitions; they are multi-national ecosystems involving next-gen technologies like combat AI, drone swarms, networked warfare, directed-energy weapons, and cross-domain sensor fusion. Participation would mean early access to systems that will define future air combat, and more importantly, a seat at the design table, not just the buyer’s showroom.
France Offers Familiarity and a Future
France, in particular, offers a natural fit. India and France already share an operational foundation through the Rafale. The FCAS program, which aims to replace France’s Rafales and Germany’s Eurofighters, could be India’s way into Europe’s defence industrial base.
France has historically been open to technology transfer and strategic trust-building. In the words of a former Indian Air Marshal: “If we are flying French now, and building with them tomorrow, that’s more than a vendor relationship. That’s a strategic partnership.”
Build Rafale F5 Now, Build the Future Next
India needs a layered strategy. The Rafale F5 must be acquired quickly to plug operational gaps and give the IAF breathing room. But a larger leap is essential, one that avoids dependency on either the U.S. or Russia, and instead, embeds India in the next phase of fighter development.
Strategically, India must join FCAS or GCAP, not merely as a buyer but as a committed stakeholder. It’s time to stop treating fighter acquisition as a procurement process. It is a geopolitical decision, one that defines whether India is a customer or a creator.
Huma Siddiqui
