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Brigadier SK Chatterji (Retd)

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  1. Rabindra

    Since Napoleonic wars to till date, geo political rivalry has played out between the dominant world power and the emerging power. China and its emergence is threatening the existing rule based order in Indo Pacific .
    In a first , President Biden upgraded Quadrilateral Security dialogue to the Head of States level in his initial days of Presidency , making it clear that containment of China is his priority. Obama too was uncomfortable with rise of China and launched his “Pivot to Asia”. Obama’s Trans Pacific Partnership with 12 nations represented 40% of the world’s economy and was aimed at engaging and containing China. Trump walked out of it. This QUAD meeting appears to be “Pivot to Asia 2.0” of US.
    For China, QUAD is Indo Pacific NATO. China, as an emerging power, too has made many alliances. BRI is an initiative which has 123 nations engaged and through BRI, China aims to economically be the most dominant power. BRICS, SCO are two major China driven alliances. To reduce the influence of World Bank and IMF, China has launched Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and New Development Bank. Both the banks are growing in stature rapidly and even India, despite the NE Ladakh on going stand-off, finds it convenient to take credit from them.
    And as Biden seeks to curb China, his allies are increasingly engaging with China bilaterally. In Dec 2020, EU signed the historic “Comprehensive Agreement on Investment”, a 17 nations +1 treaty. As China was the first of the blocks in lockdown recovery and its trade increased by 60%, US allies like Japan, South Korea saw their economy too rebound rapidly with exports to China. India’s food grains exports too saw a 20.28% growth to China in 2020.

    As the main aim of QUAD is to curb China, its will only be successful if the QUAD nations collectively forego their bilateral relations with China. Success of Quad is solely depended on this.
    China’s assertive rise as a regional hegemon is slowly reshaping the structures of power globally. This brings it on an inevitable collision course with US. But it necessarily should not culminate into a war. Such war will take the world back by 50 years. If this threat is staring at face of the entire world today than its time EU, Russia, India, Japan , Australia jointly mediate to avert it .
    Hegemons like the US and China cannot be trusted with power and should not be entrusted with global security.

    The article is analytical and candid.


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