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A failed Chinese invasion of Taiwan could leave nearly 100,000 Chinese military personnel dead and trigger catastrophic economic and political fallout for Beijing, according to a new report by the Washington-based German Marshall Fund (GMF).
The Report titled “If China Attacks Taiwan” studies the consequences for China under two scenarios: a “minor conflict” and a “major war,” occurring sometime between 2026 and 2030. In a worst-case scenario, GMF warns that a full-scale war would end in military defeat for China, with an estimated 100,000 casualties during the invasion, internal instability and near-total isolation from the global economy.
Under the major war scenario, China launches an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, preceded by missile strikes on Taiwanese targets and U.S. forces stationed in Japan and Guam. While Chinese troops manage to land on the island, they struggle to sustain operations as Taiwanese and U.S. forces repeatedly strike Chinese ships and aircraft ferrying reinforcements across the Taiwan Strait.
After months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces are forced to withdraw from Taiwan, though they retain control of the offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu, the Report says.
According to the report, China would sustain an estimated 100,000 casualties during the invasion, while Taiwan would suffer about 50,000 military casualties and an equal number of civilian deaths. The United States would incur 5,000 military and 1,000 civilian casualties, and Japan would also suffer the same casualties.
After “several months of heavy fighting,” the Chinese military would retreat from Taiwan but maintain control of the Taiwanese offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu, claiming a “victory” or as having “taught Taiwan a lesson.” The report argues that the scale of losses would be impossible to hide.
“The magnitude of military losses would be too large to conceal,” the authors wrote, warning that the outcome could severely damage relations between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Disillusionment within the military could lead to purges of senior commanders, factional infighting, or even coup attempts aimed at “restoring national pride,” the report said.
The economic impact would be equally devastating, triggering a massive economic pushback by U.S.-led sanctions, potentially targeting China’s central bank, and leading to near-total embargoes on Chinese trade.
The resulting pressure would weaken the yuan, undermine China’s ability to import energy and raw materials, and further strain an economy already burdened by a collapsing property sector.
“Hong Kong would likely cease to function as a global financial centre,” the report said, as Beijing would clamp down on capital flows to prevent money from leaving China under sanctions.
Diplomatically, China would face widespread isolation. The United States and its allies would likely recall ambassadors, expel Chinese diplomats, and suspend dialogue with Beijing. Some countries could withdraw from China-backed initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative or downgrade engagement with BRICS, the bloc Beijing promotes as an alternative to the Western-led order.
GMF suggests such a conflict could stem from miscalculation in Beijing, particularly an overestimation of PLA capabilities. Recent anti-corruption purges within the Chinese military may have weakened operational readiness, while senior officers may feel pressured to affirm optimistic assessments to political leaders.
In October, the CCP expelled nine senior military officials for alleged corruption, including He Weidong, once the second-highest-ranking officer in the PLA.
The report concludes that rather than cementing China’s rise, a war over Taiwan would expose its vulnerabilities, military, economic, and political, on a global scale.
Team BharatShakti
