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A new ranking of the world’s air forces has ruffled feathers in Beijing.
The World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA) has placed India as the third most powerful air force in the world – behind only the United States and Russia, and crucially, ahead of China.
While Indian media hailed the development as a “spectacular rise,” the reaction from across the Himalayas was noticeably sour. Chinese state media dismissed the list as “meaningless,” while experts warned that “paper rankings” could mislead nations into “dangerous miscalculations.”
Beneath that response, however, lies a deeper unease within Beijing’s strategic establishment – an irritation at seeing its long-cultivated image as Asia’s premier air power publicly challenged.
A Blow to Beijing’s Strategic Self-Image
For more than a decade, China has projected the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) as the benchmark of Asian air power. With fifth-generation platforms such as the J-20 and J-31, a massive aircraft inventory, and rapidly expanding infrastructure, the PLAAF’s modernization drive has been central to Beijing’s narrative of military superiority.
The WDMMA ranking unsettles that image. By placing India above China, it suggests a recalibration in Asia’s balance of air power — one that acknowledges India’s steady capability enhancement, operational maturity, and diverse fleet composition.
The Global Times’ coverage reflects this discomfort. It cited Chinese experts who argued that militaries should be assessed on “real combat performance rather than paper strength.” Others accused Western and Indian outlets of attempting to “stoke rivalry” between the two Asian powers. The tone – defensive and admonitory – was telling.
Beyond Numbers: Why the Ranking Matters
The WDMMA’s TruVal Rating system evaluates air forces not just by aircraft count but also by modernization, logistics, training, maintenance, and combat-readiness. By those measures, India’s air force scored a TruVal Rating of 69.4, ranking third globally, while the United States and Russia retained the top two positions.
The Indian Air Force (IAF) currently fields 1,716 aircraft, with a balanced force mix: about 32% fighters, 29% helicopters, and 22% trainers. Its inventory reflects diversity – Russian-origin Su-30MKIs, French Rafales, American C-17s and Apaches – alongside indigenously developed assets such as the LCA Tejas. This combination provides strategic flexibility, backed by increasing domestic industrial capacity.
In contrast, while China possesses a larger numerical fleet, its operational effectiveness and combat experience remain relatively untested. Analysts often point to the PLAAF’s centralized command structures, inconsistent pilot training depth, and dependence on Russian-derived engine technologies as continuing weaknesses.
Measured Reaction in New Delhi
In India, the ranking has been welcomed but not overhyped. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) described it as a “proud moment,” highlighting the IAF’s achievement in surpassing China. Yet most Indian commentators adopted a more cautious tone, emphasizing that recognition must translate into continued modernization and readiness.
Recent IAF operations, such as Operation Sindoor, which involved precision strikes on terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir earlier this year, have underscored the Air Force’s evolving capability in long-range targeting and rapid response. Still, defence planners remain acutely aware of existing gaps – from declining squadron strength to pending indigenous production targets – that must be addressed to sustain long-term superiority.
Beijing’s Perception Problem
China’s irritation with the ranking is as much about perception as it is about capability. The PLAAF’s image as a dominant regional force has been integral to China’s broader geopolitical messaging. India’s elevation above China, even in a non-governmental ranking, disrupts that narrative.
More significantly, it coincides with India’s expanding defence partnerships – from joint exercises with France and the United States to strategic interoperability within the Quad framework. Each of these strengthens India’s credibility as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific, a perception Beijing has tried to avoid.
By reacting so sharply to a public ranking, China has inadvertently reinforced that very perception – that India’s rise in military capability is being acknowledged globally, and that Beijing finds it difficult to ignore.
The Global Times’ defensive tone, and the flurry of commentary from Chinese experts urging restraint, point to a deep-seated anxiety: that the narrative of inevitable Chinese military dominance in Asia is beginning to fray.
Symbolism and Strategy
While such rankings do not determine real combat outcomes, they influence strategic perception – an arena that China values immensely. For a regime that invests heavily in image projection and narrative control, being publicly outranked by India carries symbolic sting.
India’s steady modernization trajectory, growing operational sophistication, and diversified procurement approach have clearly begun to register internationally. China’s response – dismissive yet anxious – reflects not just annoyance, but recognition that its uncontested dominance in Asian air power is being questioned.
As one Indian defence observer noted, “If Beijing wasn’t rattled, it wouldn’t have felt the need to respond at all.”
India’s climb in the air power rankings may be symbolic, but symbolism matters. In Asia’s unfolding contest of perception and power, Beijing’s irritation speaks volumes.
Ravi Shankar
Dr Ravi Shankar has over two decades of experience in communications, print journalism, electronic media, documentary film making and new media.
He makes regular appearances on national television news channels as a commentator and analyst on current and political affairs. Apart from being an acknowledged Journalist, he has been a passionate newsroom manager bringing a wide range of journalistic experience from past associations with India’s leading media conglomerates (Times of India group and India Today group) and had led global news-gathering operations at world’s biggest multimedia news agency- ANI-Reuters. He has covered Parliament extensively over the past several years. Widely traveled, he has covered several summits as part of media delegation accompanying the Indian President, Vice President, Prime Minister, External Affairs Minister and Finance Minister across Asia, Africa and Europe.
