The horrific attack in Pahalgam that claimed the lives of 26 innocent tourists has sent shockwaves not only across India but deep into the corridors of power in Pakistan. As India mourns and prepares its response, a sense of dread grips Pakistan’s military and political establishment—a fear born not of immediate action but of long-ignored consequences coming to a head.
The signs are unmistakable. The Pakistan Army is scrambling. Two major formations—the 37th Infantry Division from Kharian and the 15th from Sialkot—have been urgently repositioned to forward locations, signalling a shift to a defensive posture. The Pakistan Air Force is on high alert. Its intelligence arms—SIGINT and TECHINT—are working round the clock to track Indian movements. Even the Navy, usually peripheral in Indo-Pak conflicts, is on standby.
But it’s not just the military that’s bracing for impact. Border villages are being evacuated, anticipating precision Indian strikes—measures reminiscent of the post-Uri and Pulwama retaliations, but with a deeper sense of anxiety this time.
“This reaction is disproportionate not because India has declared war,” says Lt Col Manoj K Channan (Retd), speaking to BharatShakti, “but because Pakistan’s leadership now understands two hard truths: One, India has the political will and military capacity to strike decisively without fear of escalation. And two, Pakistan is at its most vulnerable—militarily overstretched, politically unstable, and economically hollowed out.”
Lt Col Channan offers a stark assessment: “Pakistan’s economy is in free fall. Inflation is unchecked, foreign reserves are nearly exhausted, and public discontent is boiling over. An external military crisis could fracture the state. The army knows this. Even a limited escalation risks triggering internal chaos they may not be able to contain.”
The rushed troop movements and civilian evacuations are not a show of strength, he argues—they’re a reflection of fear. “This is a panic posture. When three military branches go on simultaneous alert, and civilians are cleared out in haste, it’s not confidence on display—it’s vulnerability.”
Strategic Fallout: Three Emerging Risks
Lt Col Channan identifies three looming consequences for Pakistan:
- Internal Collapse: “Escalation could intensify economic and political instability, leading to unrest, especially in volatile regions like Balochistan.”
- Security Gaps: “With forces redeployed eastward, internal security—especially along the western front—becomes dangerously exposed.”
- Diplomatic Dead End: “Pakistan’s go-to playbook—crying wolf to the global community—is losing steam. The world stands with terror victims, not their enablers.”
Haunted by Balakot
India’s stance has been unequivocal. Prime Minister Modi vowed to “wipe out” those behind the Pahalgam massacre—a declaration that has rattled Pakistan’s top brass. Haunted by the memory of the 2019 Balakot airstrike, Pakistan is taking no chances.
Reports coming from Pakistan are stark. Launch pads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir have reportedly been abandoned. Even the Jaish-e-Mohammed headquarters in Bahawalpur lies deserted. Evacuations have spread to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with training camps dismantled and commanders dispersed into hiding. In a telling move, PAF aircraft are allegedly being used to relocate high-value terrorists away from likely strike zones.
Diplomatic Desperation
The panic now extends beyond the battlefield. Islamabad’s political leadership appears equally rattled. In a recent interview with Sky News, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif made an impassioned appeal for dialogue, warning of the threat of a “full-blown war” between nuclear-armed nations. “The world should be worried,” he said. But the international sentiment is clear: sympathy lies with the victims, not with a regime accused of sheltering terror networks.
A Strategic Miscalculation Exposed
Pakistan’s current actions suggest that it is not a nation ready for confrontation—but one scrambling for survival. For years, its leadership operated under the illusion that it could provoke India without consequence. The Pahalgam tragedy has shattered that illusion.
What we see now in Rawalpindi and Islamabad isn’t just strategic anxiety—it’s the unravelling of a doctrine built on miscalculation. The fear psychosis gripping Pakistan today is less about an Indian reprisal—and more about the collapse of a strategy that has finally run its course.
Team BharatShakti
