Editor’s Note
Is Bangladesh descending into chaos? Is tolerance being shed, and radicalism on a steep upswing? Are minorities living on the edge? Who controls a country with one of the highest density of populations that recently celebrated its 50th anniversary of independence? The fact remains that Bangladesh is in turmoil. India has displayed strategic patience in dealing with neighbours in the past, with the Maldives and Sri Lanka being a few examples. It has helped these countries stabilise. The article analyses India’s possible role and approach in Bangladesh’s case.
In June 1996, I met Major Mohammad Tasnim of the East Bengal Regiment (Bangladesh) and his wife Lipi at the Defence Services Staff College, Wellington. It was a course for middle-level armed forces officers and attended by officers from many friendly foreign countries. Neighbouring countries, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal and Afghanistan, are given special preference regarding the number of vacancies and funding by the Government of India. I was nominated as the sponsoring officer to Major Tasnim (and my wife to Lipi) and happened to be his friend, philosopher and guide during the course.
All foreign officers attending the course were to make a presentation about their countries. I recall Tasnim ‘s riveting presentation, which commenced with an unflinching indebtedness and a warm tribute to India and its valiant soldiers who helped Bangladesh achieve freedom. As I moved along in service, I happened to interact with many more armed forces officers from Bangladesh, including at the National Defence College, which conducts courses on National Security and Strategic Studies at the apex level. There was always great bonhomie and mutual respect among the officers of India and Bangladesh.
The tumultuous events unfolded in Bangladesh on 5th August 2024, and as it continues to veer towards anarchy, was not without a simmering discontentment and evolving socio-political milieu triggering its tenuous fault lines. The turmoil resulted from a multiplicity of factors, including political exclusion, economic distress, widespread unemployment amongst youth, the cost-of-living crisis, especially after COVID-19, and Sheikh Hasina’s disdain for political opponents.
Prelude
What started as a protest against 30% reservation for children and grandchildren of freedom fighters precipitated a wider revolt against the ruling dispensation marked by contentious and autocratic practices of governance. Interestingly, over the 15 years that Sheikh Hasina has been in power since 2009, Bangladesh’s GDP has grown by 6.29 % from $100 bn to $460 bn in 2022. Its GDP per capita grew from $698 in 2009 to $2500 in 2023, surpassing India. Its exports (predominantly garments) tripled from $15.1 bn in 2009 to $54.7 in 2022. Poverty declined from 11.8% in 2010 to 5% in 2022, lifting nearly 30 million people out of poverty, and the country was expected to graduate from a least developed country to a developing one by 2026. Post-independence in 1971, Bangladesh had as much as 80% reservation in government jobs, which was reduced to 56% in 2012.
Ironically, Sheikh Hasina scrapped the 56% reservation in 2018 following nationwide protests. This was restored by the High Court in June 2024 before protracted riots in July 2024, forcing the Supreme Court to intervene and reduce the percentage of reservation for descendants of freedom fighters to 5%. The mayhem, however, continued after a brief pause due to the use of excessive force, resulting in the death of 300 and over 1000 injured in police action, enforced disappearances, deteriorating governance, lack of inclusivity and complex interplay between economic performance and political challenges. This has thrown the economic trajectory into complete disarray.
Role of Army
To say that the Army played an unobtrusive but dominant role in Bangladesh’s politics would be an understatement. While it may be more overt and blatant in Pakistan, it is inconspicuous but assertive in Bangladesh. During a visit to the country in 2019, I learnt that the eight Exclusive Economic Zones were all headed by serving or retired major generals. The Armed Forces Headquarters directly approached the Prime Minister, bypassing the entire bureaucracy, and often got what they wanted. It is thus no surprise that it was the Army Chief who advised the deposed Prime Minister to leave the country before even she could make a final TV appearance, having first refused to act against the protesters. Often within the same unit/establishment, one could find officers of varying political, social and religious orientations.
Prevailing Situation
A military-backed 16-member caretaker government was constituted under Chief Advisor Mohammad Yunus, which resolved to undertake radical reforms in the fields of judiciary, constitution, election commission, police, administration and anti-corruption. It is a moot point how these reforms would be instituted without an elected government. Despite the Chief Advisor’s assurance to the minority community and accusing India of false propaganda, the situation on the ground does not inspire confidence. Since the unrest, there have been multiple attacks on the places of worship, houses and businesses of minority communities, especially Hindus. There are reports of ransom for celebrating Durga Puja, cancellation of national holidays linked to the liberation struggle, commemorating the death anniversary of Muhammad Ali Jinnah absolving Pakistan of its genocidal war crimes while at the same time vandalising structures of the father of the nation Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
The lifting of the ban on JEI, the display of flags akin to ISIS by elite college students and the recognition of Hizb-ut Tahrir, which was banned in 2009 and stood for an Islamic caliphate of Bangladesh, portray a dangerous jingoism in the socio-political landscape of Bangladesh. It is also reported that judges of the Supreme Court allegedly owing allegiance to the Awami League have been deprived of conducting judicial functions in response to protests. On 23 October, the Bangladesh Chhatra League, the 76-year-old student wing of Awami League, was banned under the Anti-Terrorism Act of 2009 for subversive, provocative and destructive activities. There is growing clamour for banning the Awami League itself. The protest-driven dispensation is seemingly relenting to five demands of the Student’s Movement Against Discrimination, including the removal of the President for a statement on Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and the scrapping of the constitution.
Statements on re-energizing SAARC, an organization in cold storage due to Indo-Pak differences and outlandishly seeking a nuclear agreement with Pakistan are part of an insidious and sinister agenda against perceived threats from India. It is appalling to witness Bangladesh, a more prosperous, modern and secular democracy, degenerating into complete lawlessness and warming up to Pakistan, a country afflicted by severe economic distress, security and political turmoil.
India-Bangladesh Relations
It would be pertinent to analyse the curious intermittent Bangladeshi animosity towards India despite the latter having sacrificed over 3800 lives and 9800 wounded to secure its independence. A country that fought a full-fledged war to secure freedom for a neighbour completely withdrew with no territorial claims and even forfeited the opportunity to seek a secure corridor to its northeastern region despite its perpetual vulnerability.
India displayed magnanimity in reaching the land boundary agreement, where it ceded control over 111 Indian enclaves in exchange for 51 Bangladesh enclaves in 2015. The multiple rail and road connectivity projects on the anvil will immensely benefit Bangladesh’s trade with Nepal, Bhutan and India’s NE region (under BBIN, a sub-regional grouping). With assistance from India, the Rooppur nuclear power plant under construction in Bangladesh will significantly lessen its power situation. Even today, Bangladesh owes over $1bn to Indian power companies, which have remained steadfast in supplying power despite eight to nine months of delay in payment of dues.
There are, of course, areas of dispute that are not unsurmountable. Chiefly the Teesta River Water issue, transborder cattle smuggling, drugs and narcotics and migration into India for better economic opportunities. Bangladesh is also unhappy with India for not using its leverage to resolve the Rohingya issue with Myanmar. Politically motivated statements during elections with adverse reference to infiltration from Bangladesh have also ruffled feathers.
Way Ahead
India cannot afford to have another adversarial country with which it shares a 4096 km border. In the past, our relations with Nepal suffered a setback due to the 2015 blockade and with Sri Lanka after the IPKF operations. However, of late, Indian diplomacy has been nuanced, and remarkable strategic patience, restraint, and maturity have been displayed in harmonising the relationship with the Maldives. It reached out to Sri Lanka during its acute economic distress. It is imperative to display patience to await the current wave of anti-India sentiment to wither and for a semblance of normalcy to return.
The two armed forces enjoy an excellent rapport, which must be exploited to maintain communication and remove unnecessary suspicions against each other. Bangladesh is passing through a very sensitive social, political and economic turbulence. India must consider non-reciprocal economic assistance to Bangladesh. People-to-people engagements, and cultural, educational and student exchanges must be vigorously facilitated. Sensitive issues like the Citizenship Amendment Act (including the recently passed Supreme Court Judgement on Article 6) and infiltration must be calibrated to mitigate misperceptions and detoxify people-to-people relationships. India and Bangladesh relations have made giant strides over the last 10 years. This strategic advantage must not be lost due to temporary upheavals in the neighbouring country.
Maj Gen SC Mohanty (Retd)
