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China’s nuclear arsenal is expanding at an unprecedented rate, and its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force could match that of the United States or Russia by the end of the decade, according to the latest yearbook released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
The Swedish think tank reported that China has been adding approximately 100 nuclear warheads annually since 2023, bringing its current total to at least 600. This figure is expected to continue rising sharply, supported by large-scale missile silo construction and advances in missile technology.
“China has the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal in the world,” SIPRI stated in its report released Monday.
Although most Chinese warheads are believed to be stored separately from their delivery systems, SIPRI estimates that 132 warheads have already been assigned to operational launchers. China is reportedly completing around 350 new ICBM silos across desert regions in the north and mountainous areas in the east, though it remains unclear if any have entered active service.
Hans Kristensen, associate senior fellow at SIPRI and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, attributed China’s buildup to President Xi Jinping’s vision of transforming the People’s Liberation Army into a “world-class military” by mid-century.
Kristensen said the surge could also reflect concerns about the credibility of China’s previous minimum deterrent strategy, especially in light of U.S. missile defence advancements that might undermine China’s retaliatory capability.
“If China equips each new silo with a single-warhead missile, it could deploy around 650 warheads within a decade. With missiles carrying three multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), that number could exceed 1,200,” SIPRI noted.
The report highlighted the strategic implications of this trend, warning that multiple-warhead deployments could dramatically increase China’s ability to threaten a wider range of targets.
In recent years, China has upgraded its DF-5 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) technology and deployed the more advanced DF-41, which is also capable of MIRV use. It is also modernising its sea-based deterrent, retrofitting Type 094 ballistic missile submarines and developing the next-generation Type 096 class. However, SIPRI noted delays in the submarine programme and uncertainty over how many SSBNs China intends to field.
While Chinese submarines currently pose a limited threat to the U.S. mainland, Kristensen said they could target regional assets and potentially U.S. territories like Alaska or Hawaii.
“China’s strategic ICBMs are unlikely to be used in a regional conflict such as over Taiwan due to the risk of U.S. nuclear retaliation,” Kristensen added. “More plausible would be the use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles like the DF-26 against regional targets.”
The SIPRI report also noted a broader global trend of nuclear rearmament. As of January 2025, the global stockpile of nuclear warheads stood at an estimated 12,241, with the U.S. and Russia accounting for about 90% of them. Around 9,610 warheads were in military stockpiles, including 3,910 deployed on missiles or aircraft and 2,100 kept on high operational alert—mostly by the U.S. and Russia.
SIPRI cautioned that China “may now keep some warheads on missiles during peacetime,” signalling a potential shift in its nuclear posture.
“The era of nuclear reductions that began after the Cold War is over,” Kristensen said, citing growing arsenals, intensified nuclear rhetoric, and a breakdown of arms control agreements.
With the New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia set to expire in February 2026 and no replacement in sight, SIPRI warned of a looming arms race. In his foreword, SIPRI Director Dan Smith stated that the evolving strategic landscape—featuring advanced technologies such as AI, cyber warfare, and missile defence—renders traditional arms control models increasingly obsolete.
“A new arms race is taking shape—one that is more complex, unpredictable, and dangerous than its Cold War predecessor,” Smith warned.
Team BharatShakti
