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Editor’s Note
Tensions between Iran and the United States have once again entered a volatile phase. At the heart of the confrontation lies Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, its ballistic missile programme, and Washington’s long-standing objective of curbing both. The author examines the aims and objectives on both sides, evaluates the military and diplomatic indicators, and assesses the likely end state of the confrontation – whether negotiated containment, calibrated escalation, or a wider regional conflict.
The theological Iranian leadership has been on the American radar for a long time, with their pursuit of a nuclear weapons programme being the prime contentious issue. Iran’s anti-government mass protests on the streets have provided a window of opportunity to the US to bring Tehran under control.
Communication between the US and Iran, facilitated by Oman, has provided a ray of hope for a negotiated agreement. In fact, the Iranian foreign office spokesperson has said that the talks allowed Iran to judge the US’s seriousness!
As far as the less-informed leaders are concerned, the US’s dithering for weeks at the end is an indicator of some progress in back-channel negotiations. The Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has definitely not earned himself another lifeline, as yet.
The US President Donald Trump has got his armada in place for an assault on Ayatollah Khamenei, his power structure, the nuclear weapons programme, and the ballistic missiles programme, which are a great concern for Netanyahu. The US aims and objectives have not been spelt out; however, the deployment and concentration of forces have already started in the high seas.
American Objectives in Iran
Arriving at an Agreement Without Use of Military Force: Every leader vies for a win without a clash of armour. Trump proves to be no different. However, going in for talks isn’t quite in tune with his tweet “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!… HELP IS ON ITS WAY.” That almost sounded like the bugle being blown, hard and shrill, for American missiles to take flight.
Regime Change: The first and foremost US objective is likely to be the removal of the Ayatollah. However, whisking him out with the special forces knocking on the door may not prove to be as smooth as Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan President, being abducted. Whatever the degree of difficulty, Ayatollah Khamenei’s removal is a must for Americans to score any tangible gains.
Hence, if not Special Forces, it could be a missile attack, utilising an accomplice, or any other methodology feasible. Khamenei could, if under great pressure, agree to go into exile. His removal from power is the most important US objective.
Elimination of Iranian Political and Military Leadership: Ayatollah Khamenei’s removal alone offers no guarantee of policy changes, including giving up nuclear ambitions. The current apex politico-military leadership, the top rungs of Iranian-backed terrorist groups, and the senior leadership have to be removed.
Destroying Facilities for Nuclear Programme: Launching so contentious an operation can only be justified if it leads to long-term guarantees against Iranian threats to the US and its proximate allies. The ultimate aim is to halt Iranian nuclear plants, including the destruction of Iran’s Uranium enrichment infrastructure, or whatever is still functional/restored after the 2025 attacks on three nuclear facilities in Iran.
Destroy Critical Military Objectives: The first waves of the US attack would surely target the Iranian Air Defence network and achieve air dominance over the areas of interest. Missile launch facilities, storage sites, and critical military production facilities will be the priority targets. With the Israelis insisting, Iran’s missile manufacturing, storage and launch capabilities will receive close attention.
Other secondary objectives, but surely the ones discussed above, would be a part of the framework.
Iranian Objectives
Iran’s primary objective will be the survival of its political–military leadership. It will also try to shield its progress in the nuclear arena. It may undertake missile attacks on US bases in range and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Its affiliated terror groups could target American assets abroad. They would also target Israel, US allies in the region and shipping in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Bab el Mandeb Strait.
US Force Levels and Global Acceptance of American Decision
The force levels and composition that the US can field definitely overwhelm Iranian resources.
As far as the Americans are concerned, the US Central Command, headquartered at Al Udeid air base, is responsible for the area and should conduct the battle. The US 5th Fleet is in the process of deploying. Aircraft Carrier USS Abraham Lincoln of the US Navy has reached its designated area in the Arabian Sea/ Northern Indian Ocean. There is no news about the movement of warships of European countries and Arab states. However, according to Trump, a force larger than the one deployed for the Venezuela operations is in place.
The US has a host of bases in West Asian countries, including Bahrain, Israel, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Syria. The US already has about 40,000 to 50,000 personnel in the area.
The USS Abraham Lincoln has on board F/A-18E and F/A-18F multirole fighter aircraft. It also has F-35C Lightning, the latest deck-based fighter aircraft. In addition, it has the EA-18 G Growler Electronic Warfare aircraft and the E-2D Hawkeye Airborne Early Warning aircraft. In terms of helicopters, it has MH 60R Seahawk multirole helicopters.
NATO as a whole is unlikely to be part of the force, but a few countries could pitch in. Reports suggest that the UK and France have been involved in the planning process. Beyond NATO, Israel should be ready to mobilise its forces.
Arab nations have to be consulted for such an operation. Reports suggest that Jordan and the UAE are possibly there. However, other major West Asian nations are yet to throw their hats in the ring.
Iranian Strengths
The sheer size of the country and its populace, the multiplicity of militias, the dire state of the economy and a host of other problems rule out territorial domination by another country.
Iranians would also be supported by the Houthis, Hezbollah, and other militias affiliated with the Iranian regime. Iranians have previously struck the US air base at Al Udeid, and its missiles can reach the US bases in the region. Iran can also attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, causing major turbulence in the oil market. It will also be supported by Russia, China, and North Korea, among others. However, such support will be limited to providing arms and ammunition and will gradually increase. In a short, swift war, limited to the use of air power, such support may not be a decisive or operationally critical factor.
Likely Outcomes
Negotiations, rather than another air campaign, are well appreciated by both parties. With the American build-up being a fairly convincing display of Trump’s intent, the Iranian supreme leader may be ready to go for a fresh agreement covering both nuclear and missile programmes. However, radicals are hardly ever rational. Iranian inclusion in the missile programme will be strongly contested by Iran.
If an assessment of strengths is conducted, Iran has no chance of equitably responding to a US assault. However, the US cannot occupy such a large country; hence, a regime change is the other strategic alternative. Control over Iranian territory will have to be exercised through a new regime. The flag atop Tehran has no choice but to remain Iranian.
Iran, though considerably weakened by sanctions, retains the strength to respond to American attacks. It will employ its drones and missile forces and force the Americans to bear the cost of defending against cheaply produced drones with sophisticated missiles. We are unlikely to witness the Iranian regime capitulating within days of US attacks. There are examples of Gaza and Ukraine where the wars still rage even after years. However, if the Iranian leadership is eliminated quickly, chances of a regime collapse are very probable in Iran.
The credits for the regime collapsing, should it so happen, will not go to the Americans alone, but the larger Iranian populace that has taken to the streets, with thousands of them paying for it with their lives.
Brig SK Chatterji (Retd)
