Following the Pahalgam massacre and the Indian Army’s successful Operation Sindoor, a US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) report has raised serious concerns about Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions. The report reveals that Islamabad is not only expanding its nuclear weapons stockpile but also modernizing its capabilities—an alarming development in an already volatile region.
This expose comes in the wake of strong remarks by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who asserted that Pakistan’s era of “nuclear blackmail” is over, signaling a more assertive stance from New Delhi.
Pakistan’s Growing Nuclear Arsenal
According to the DIA, Pakistan continues to view its nuclear arsenal as a key strategic deterrent, particularly given its conventional military inferiority compared to India. Unable to match India’s conventional military strength, Pakistan is reportedly increasing its reliance on nuclear weapons as a counterbalance. The report also suggests that Pakistan has acquired components and technology related to Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) from foreign sources, notably China.
The intelligence document states that Pakistan’s WMD infrastructure is heavily reliant on external support, with Chinese suppliers playing a major role. Other contributors include companies based in Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the UAE. This foreign assistance has become critical as Pakistan seeks to enhance the sophistication and delivery capabilities of its nuclear arsenal.
China’s Strategic Support
The report points to an increasingly close military partnership between Pakistan and China. Beijing is seen as Islamabad’s primary defence and economic lifeline. The two countries routinely conduct joint military exercises, and a new air exercise is scheduled to conclude in November 2024. The growing defence collaboration highlights Pakistan’s dependency on China not only for military hardware but also for economic stabilisation.
However, this relationship has come under strain following a series of terrorist attacks targeting Chinese nationals involved in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). These attacks have reportedly sparked diplomatic tensions between Islamabad and Beijing, further complicating the regional security dynamic.
India’s Military Rise
The report also covers India’s strategic posture, highlighting significant advancements in its defence capabilities. Under the “Make in India” initiative, India is rapidly modernizing its military infrastructure and reducing reliance on traditional partners like Russia. The testing of long-range nuclear-capable missiles such as Agni-1 and Agni-5 and the induction of the nuclear-powered submarine INS Arighat into the Indian Navy signal a robust nuclear triad designed to deter threats from both Pakistan and China.
While India remains partially dependent on Russia for spare parts, it is increasingly diversifying its defence partnerships, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. India’s involvement in international defence forums and alliances—including Quad, BRICS, SCO, and ASEAN—demonstrates its ambition to play a more influential role in global security affairs.
India-China Relations
The report also briefly touches on the state of India-China relations. Despite a disengagement agreement signed in October 2024, tensions remain unresolved along the disputed border areas. Both nations have pulled back their troops but continue to maintain a cautious stance.
Global Implications
The DIA submitted its global threat assessment report to the U.S. House of Representatives in May 2025, reflecting on events up to May 11. It notes the recent military conflict between India and Pakistan, which ended after four days. While India attributed the ceasefire to Pakistan’s request, former U.S. President Donald Trump claimed diplomatic credit for the de-escalation.
