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Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web has written a new page in the history of Drone Warfare and brought to the fore the threats that our critical assets are already faced with in today’s battlefields that have no battlelines. Russia’s best-guarded force, its strategic bomber resources that form the most flexible elements of its Nuclear Triad, bore widespread damage. Multiple coordinated Ukrainian drones attacked these assets in different air bases, causing havoc.
It would be prudent to analyse the basics of Russian defensive measures for its strategic bomber aircraft before the Ukrainian drone attack is analysed.
Russian Defence of Long-Range Strategic Bomber Force
Russians have in the past repeatedly warned that attacks against strategic targets by the Ukrainians crossing a red line in the ongoing war. However, these strategic bombers have been targeted in the past, too, mostly individually, as they have moved forward to influence the ongoing battle. The first defensive measure undertaken by the Russians was dispersing them to deeper locations. Attempts have also been made by Ukrainian drones deeper into Russian territory. However, Ukrainian drones haven’t been able to get past layered Russian Air Defence resources.
Other measures undertaken by Russians include painting the Aircraft top to avoid identification and raising blast walls to contain the damage.
Ukrainian Attack Plan
With long-range drones proving ineffective against targets in depth, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) chalked out a different plan. Drones were smuggled into Russia to attack the strategic bombers in different Russian airbases. The plan took over 18 months to germinate.
According to Russian inputs, the smuggled drones were kept in six different areas. If an inference is to be drawn from the location of attacked bases, as well as the odd base where the plan failed, these places included Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions. The drones were hidden, in certain cases, under the roofs of buildings with wooden tops.
According to the Guardian, ‘the attack struck Belaya airbase in Irkutsk, which is more than 2,500 miles (4,000km) from Ukraine. Other targets included the Olenya airbase in Murmansk, Dyagilevo airbase in Ryazan and Ivanovo Severny airbase in Ivanovo’.
Ukrainian intelligence reportedly launched 117 attack drones from trucks that had been placed near Russian air bases. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, confirmed that 117 drones were used in the operation, with a corresponding number of drone operators involved.
Russian Assets Destroyed
Ukraine destroyed substantial numbers of Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers. An initial statement from the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff claimed that the drones hit 41 aircraft.
The Ukraine Defence Ministry initially said, “Air defences repelled the assaults in three regions, but not Murmansk… adding that in those places, several aircraft caught fire. Ukraine claimed 34% of “The strategic cruise missile carriers stationed at airbases were hit.”
However, these claims have been revised. Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, stated that “at least 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed.”
Open-source intelligence analysts report damage to 13 bombers based on imagery from various resources and drone footage. The exact losses include four to six Tu-95s, three Tu-22M3 bombers, and two Tu-160s. However, such figures, though not hypothetical, are not entirely dependable.
Russia also appears to have lost one A-50 Airborne Early Warning and Control System (AEW&CS) aircraft. It is the third A-50 that Russia has lost. A precious resource of which Russia had only 10.
Summation
The attack was carried out on the day previous to the second round of peace talks scheduled in Istanbul. The execution of the attack had a huge political agenda besides strategic objectives.
Russia is creeping forward in the land battles being contested in East Ukraine. However, Ukraine has driven it home through this attack that it can inflict damages far heavier than the tactical gains Russians can garner on land. The attack needs to be viewed in the context of Russia’s Black Sea Naval Fleet’s fate. The fleet has borne multiple assaults by Ukrainian naval drones and has been made almost inoperative. At the end of this war, Russian endeavours will barely be able to restore its status of being a great power. The Russian decline is now more pronounced.
Russia’s strategic bomber fleet is faced with substantial degradation. Most of the production lines of older fleets have been closed down. Reportedly, a significant amount of cannibalisation has already occurred to keep these assets flightworthy. With this sudden additional debilitating attack, Russia will need to focus on its strategic deterrence capabilities. Purely in terms of costs, Zelensky estimates it to be over $ 7 billion.
As far as the employment of UAVs is concerned, the unpreparedness of armies globally stands out. The Russian experience wouldn’t remain an isolated issue if other powers were tested, too.
Morale and motivation of the men and women who man the machines stand out as the most outstanding battle-winning factors in the entire organisation of Sider’s Web. Infiltrating 3,000 km behind enemy lines and launching such an operation from as close as 7 km from the intended air base, in one case, requires monumental commitment and courage. Russians will find it difficult to battle the ill-equipped Ukrainians, notwithstanding a few tactical gains in Eastern Ukraine.
Brig SK Chatterji (Retd), Editor of BharatShakti
Editor, Bharatshakti.in
