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Editor’s Note
When the two forces of two nuclear states joined the battle in Operation Sindoor, no one expected a decisive result to be reached in 88 hours of combat. However, technology and some smart applications led to a decisive win for the Indians. No grinding tank battles were fought, nor was a nuclear weapon brought into play. However, for the next round, and such a possibility will always be there, India will need to be more tech-savvy and agile, while retaining conventional superiority.
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‘Operation Sindoor’ brought non-contact warfare to the forefront in South Asia in stark contrast. For India, not only did the country discover its new potential for the ‘use of force’ against her adversaries, specifically Pakistan, but it also broke the traditional nuclear overhang ceiling. It changed the paradigm for retaliation against acts of terror by Pakistan and demonstrably brought hi-tech air war to South Asia. The world watched with interest and bated breath as two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, fought a swift no-holds-barred four-day (88 hours) war, which India won decisively. It was a controlled and calibrated aggression since neither side wanted to escalate into a full-scale ground war. The era of modern non-contact warfare, where unmanned armed aerial systems (UAS)/ drones, beyond visual range (BVR) missiles, long-range artillery fires, and satellite and radar-guided weapon systems dominate the airspace, has arrived in South Asia.
Operation Spiderweb: Ukraine’s Non-Contact Masterstroke.
In an admirable feat of planning, intelligence gathering, and execution, utilizing ‘commercially off the shelf (COTS)’ armaments, especially armed drones, Ukraine knocked out a sizeable chunk of the strategic military and nuclear capabilities of Russia; Ukraine claims 34% degradation, costing approximately 7 billion dollars.
According to the SBU (Ukrainian intelligence agency), they hid 117 ‘first person view’ drones inside sheds on the backs of trucks and launched them from close to five Russian air bases, namely Belaya, over 4,000 km from the Ukrainian frontier; Olenya, near the Arctic Circle; Ivanevo and Ryazan in Western Russia; Amur in Siberia, over 4,300 km apart and extending over three time zones. They destroyed or damaged, by most accounts, over two dozen Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bombers, three Tupolev Tu-22 supersonic bombers, and a few A-50 surveillance aircraft. Non-contact warfare has given Ukraine a fresh lease of life in her war effort, encouraging her NATO partners to continue vigorous support.
Op Sindoor: The New Normal
In terms of operating space, Op Sindoor encompassed multi-dimensional kinetic and non-kinetic verticals. The kinetic sphere involved land (artillery and infantry tactical battles along the line of control), air (use of fighter aircraft, drones, missiles and rockets), space (use of satellites for ISR), and sea (Indian Navy was deployed close to Karachi and the Eastern seaboard ready to join battle and cut off sea lanes of communication).
Operations in the Non-Kinetic Realm
Information war and perception management were waged and managed as never before by state, non-state and individual players. Other nations and the international community got intimately involved, which is expected when two nuclear weapon states wage war. ‘All party’ political delegations have travelled globally, explaining India’s stand, which will have disproportionate effects subsequently. India suspended the Indus Water Treaty, playing the economic and psychological cards, and intense cyber duels are being fought by both sides as well.
Negligible Ground Offensive
There were relatively negligible offensive ground operations carried out by both sides except for artillery duels along the LC, which caused substantial infrastructure damage and human casualties on both sides. What was visible to the whole world was a non-contact war, particularly in the air and information domains.
Attack on Depth Objectives
India targeted and struck terrorist and military objectives several hundred kilometres deep without even entering enemy airspace, with precision and accuracy. Fighters, drones/ UAVs, rockets and missiles, air defence (AD) systems, and artillery strikes launched from well within their territory hit terrorist camps, air bases, radar and air defence sites with pinpoint precision. What was unique about this battle was that aerial battles were fought by rival fighter aircraft separated by hundreds of kilometres, and both ground-to-air and air-to-ground missiles were fired beyond visual range (BVR) to destroy targets in the air and on the ground.
Technology Driven Operations
Digital and hi-tech warfare was on display; satellites and radars were used to home in on enemy targets (both aircraft and ground objectives), permitting aircraft and even missiles to strike without switching on their own homing devices, resulting in either late detection or hitting enemy targets without warning. Drone swarms were employed on an unprecedented scale, with reports indicating that Pakistan used swarms of up to 500 drones, a combination of simple, dumb and sophisticated armed drones, to saturate and penetrate the Indian air defence grid and increase the probability of hitting designated targets. The indigenous integrated Indian AD grid detected and neutralised the incoming offensive barrage effectively; most Pakistani drones were neutralised by both passive and active means (shot down or jammed to become non-operational).
India’s Potent Strike compelled Pakistan to negotiate peace. India’s air offensive was bold and innovative. Apart from proactive and offensive targeting of air bases and terrorist infrastructure, our imaginative and innovative employment of drones forced enemy air defence radars to open up. Exploiting these intelligence inputs, loitering Harpy and Horop drones, homed on to these emanating systems, and credible reports indicate neutralising at least one HQ-9 air defence radar at Lahore and crippling half a dozen other targets.
Brahmos and SCALP long-range missiles hit and caused considerable damage to 11 Pakistani air bases and radar sites on the last night of the war (09/10 May), including strategic bases at Bholari, Murid, Sargodha, Nur Khan, and Rahimyar Khan bases. Arguably, the potency of the strikes on the night of 09/10 May, and the possibly disastrous consequences if the Indian offensive continued, forced the Pakistani establishment and military to call the Indian DGMO and ask for a ceasefire and cessation of all hostilities. On the Indian side, while the armed forces were on alert, they were not mobilised except for select formations, ships, and air bases.
Adapting to New Wars and the ubiquitous UAS
Recent wars, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Op Sindoor, have brought about a dramatic shift in warfare; while the nature of war has not changed, the multi-dimensional form of waging war has been established. UAVs, with their multi-tasking employment (ISR, precision targeting, homing, communications, post-damage assessments, logistics), have become ubiquitous on the battlefield.
Statistically, in the Russia-Ukraine war, over 70% of all tank and vehicle casualties and 50% of personnel casualties have been attributed to drones, far more than artillery, mortars, mines and small arms fire. The traditional military armaments are being challenged and questioned, including armour, tanks, IFVs, fighter aircraft, aircraft carriers, and large, cumbersome offensive weaponry. Recent wars have catapulted the already acknowledged importance of armed and unarmed unmanned aerial systems (UAS) into ‘game changers’. Forces have been forced to adapt and change their operational and tactical manoeuvres, restrict movement, resort to small-team operations, and employ protective measures (both passive and active) against this omnipresent threat. Warfare has undergone significant changes in the last five years, necessitating doctrinal reviews and adjustments at all levels: strategic, operational, and tactical.
Non-Contact Warfare in the Indian Context
PM Modi has enunciated the new normal, equating acts of terror as an act of war and dismissing the threat of nuclear Armageddon by a rogue Pakistani state or its leader. Pakistan and her military will now have to pay a price for sponsoring terror. Nations, not just the military, fight wars, and they are multi-dimensional, including non-contact and non-kinetic aspects. A localised or all-out ground war involving armed forces, especially the army, is very costly in terms of human resources and economics and not necessarily swift or short. If the Indian strategic aim is to teach the Pakistani armed forces a lesson, an Op Sindoor-type non-contact war may well become the norm in the near future.
Contours of the Next Round
India must be ready for the next round. There will be a next round, as Pakistan is unlikely to change due to myriad reasons. The Indian response may vary in terms of norm, intensity, time, and domains, but the methodology of inflicting punitive costs on the adversary, employing non-contact means, will dominate. It implies that the geographical and spatial spread of conflict has expanded, resulting in the overlap of civilian and military domains, as well as population and infrastructure facilities, each with their escalatory dynamics. We must remain acutely aware of the nuclear dimension and dynamics, especially when Pakistan considers the first use of tactical nukes in the operational sphere as a battlefield option. Since escalation control is not guaranteed against a chaotic, unreliable, nuclearized Pakistan, Indian forces will have to maintain a higher degree of alert and speedier mobilization before we initiate offensive options.
This new methodology of non-contact operations will likely appeal to antagonistic non-state actors and terrorists, which India must take note of. Non-contact wars would be relatively lighter on collateral damage, especially human casualties and body bags, which could give rise to political opportunism rather than national imperatives; our national leadership must guard against this. The possibility and increasing probability of China-Pakistan collusion in real terms in the next exchange can also not be ruled out. India needs to prepare and build its multi-domain capabilities and capacities urgently, especially in the military domain, to ensure it remains at the top.
Lt Gen PR Kumar (Retd)
