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Editor’s Note
The Israeli expectations of a quick Iranian caving in have been belied. The Iranian missiles have also ruptured the Iron Dome to rain missiles on civilian and high-value Israeli strategic commercial targets. The US has also got into the battle and opened up the possibility of more countries being sucked in. How far will this conflict go? What will be the dimensions of the battlefield, finally?
Review of the War Situation
By all accounts, the opening gambit on 13 June of ‘Operation Rising Lion’ (the name from a biblical verse that vows a victorious future for a powerful Israel) was a spectacular success of precise intelligence, planning, preparation, execution and post damage assessment, even by the exalted standards of Israelis themselves. Incidentally, Iran’s response is codenamed ‘Operation Honest Promise III’. By defying expectations and going to war without active US support, Israel’s PM Netanyahu gained the great advantage of total surprise. Iranian intelligence had been lulled into complacency by plans for a sixth round of US-Iran negotiations due to take place on 15 June and by Trump’s public remarks warning that an Israel attack would “blow” the chances for his diplomacy.
The First Strike
Israel hit more than 100 major targets in Iran, including nuclear facilities, air defence infrastructure including radar and missile sites, and delivery systems, and killed senior military commanders and scientists. Satellite imagery shows significant damage to areas of the Natanz nuclear site, Iran’s most crucial nuclear enrichment facility, but the fuel enrichment plant appeared to be undamaged. A nuclear research centre in Isfahan was also hit.
Among those killed were top military leadership, including the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, Maj Gen Mohammad Bagheri, and the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Gen Hossein Salami, as well as at least six Iranian nuclear scientists. Israel’s military confirmed that it had also killed Maj Gen Ali Shadmani, replacement of Gen Bagheri, who it identified as Iran’s newly appointed ‘wartime Chief of Staff’.
Overview of Events so Far
Iranian defences, which were considered formidable, crumbled quickly as missiles and bombs fell soon after 3.30 AM on the morning of 13 June. Like the Palestinians of Gaza, the people of Tehran experienced Israeli drones hovering above them and, ironically, received evacuation orders from the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) on social media, telling them when to abandon their own homes.
Interestingly Iranian military, too, played tit for tat by asking Tel Aviv residents to evacuate. “This operation took years to prepare,” Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli told ‘Eye for Iran’. It’s a very challenging task for the IDF intelligence, the Mossad…thousands of people are involved in this. It is just the beginning,” he said, without disclosing operational details or how the mission might continue.
It also involved special forces and drones deployed well in advance, deep inside Iran, to be activated on orders. Naturally, Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was under the most focused attack. The above-ground uranium enrichment hall in Natanz was destroyed in the initial wave, along with the facility’s power plant. The interruption in electricity supply was likely to have ruined many of the delicate centrifuges spinning at very high speeds, enriching uranium hexafluoride gas in the underground facilities, according to an assessment by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The nuclear complex outside the ancient city of Isfahan was also pounded in one of the opening salvoes, which hit its uranium conversion plant and another facility for making nuclear fuel for reactors. Satellite images emerged showing these sites pockmarked with holes. The nuclear facility in Fordow is buried deep inside a hillside and probably will need US help to destroy (bunker bursting munition using a B2 strategic bomber); the issue has been covered later in the article as the US has bombed the facility.
Iran’s Response surprised Israel and the World
Even while its top military leadership got decimated, and a large proportion of its missile stockpile and delivery systems got neutralised/destroyed in the initial stages of the attack, Iran managed to launch over 200 missiles shortly after Israel’s attack; a small percentage could penetrate the formidable air defence grid of Israel which the Americans and the West supplement. Israel did not anticipate the speed, effect and impact of Iran’s response and reportedly closed her information gateways to suppress information of damage done.
Some reports (confirmation difficult) indicate that Israel’s main oil refinery at Haifa has shut down after a direct hypersonic hit and massive fires. The country’s only other oil refinery, located at Ashdod, has also ceased operations. Two of Israel’s three Mediterranean gas platforms, Chevron-operated Leviathan and Energeia’s Karish, have also stopped production. Whether due to damages or as a precautionary measure, only the older generation Tamar remains open. Together, the three gas platforms produce around 70% of Israel’s electricity. Leviathan and Karish provide the bulk of exports to Egypt and Jordan, which have been halted, impacting them.
Col. Douglas Macgregor, the US defence analyst, is quite emphatic about Israel’s condition and tweets on X, “About 1/3 of Tel Aviv has been damaged or destroyed. As far as their military installations are concerned, I’m told many Israeli aircraft are being flown to Cyprus to avoid being struck. Israel was not prepared for Iran’s response. To be blunt, Israel is on the ropes! They only have a few days left of anti-air defences, and from what I’m hearing from those on the ground, the Iron Dome is a giant sieve.” He is even more emphatic that President Trump must not join the war to assist Israel.
What is Israel’s Strategic Objective
No one can be sure! Is it to ensure that Iran is no longer in a position to develop nuclear weapons by destroying her facilities and/ or force a regime change by causing such psychological and physical hardships to the people? Who will hold the current leadership responsible? The West, and especially Israel, strongly believe that the suppressed populace is waiting for just the right catalyst to come out openly in revolt and seek a regime change, a la ‘Arab Spring’ movement. It is buttressed by the isolation of Iran within the Middle East and the world for her proxy wars and being the sole Shia power centre amongst Sunni governments. It appears that PM Netanyahu sees a golden opportunity to go whole hog for a regime change in a thoroughly weakened Iran (with her proxy sponsors Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Assad decimated).
Iran’s Resolve and Capacity for Endurance is Well Known
With the decade-long Iraq-Iran war, crushing economic sanctions, recent regional escalations, international and regional isolation, and even internal turbulence, Iran has weathered the pain and storms well. Civilisationally and historically, Iran is a resilient, proud, tough nation. Her resolve and endurance capacity is well known. What Israel may have miscalculated is Iran’s strong response when driven to the wall, with her honour and reputation as a nation at stake.
Bullying, coercion, humiliation, threatening to take out the national supreme leader and demanding unconditional surrender are hardly a recipe for a cease-fire, negotiations and enduring peace. To top it all, Iran has a sizable quantity of modern missiles and delivery systems, which can be supplemented by its allies (thousands of missiles, if some reports are to be believed); those who benefit from causing attrition to the Israeli alliance, mainly USA and the West. Russia and China, which are heavily invested in the Middle East and Iran, especially China, which depends on Iran for its energy supplies, may not sit idly by in case the USA joins and witnesses the destruction of Iran.
The Non-Contact Battle Scenario
We must remember that Iran-Israel do not share a land border, and the war so far has been multi-domain, non-contact, but mainly in the air-space domain. Neither nation possesses an inexhaustible supply of missiles, rockets, and delivery systems, as already pointed out. Their supporters are involved in other conflicts, mainly the Russia-Ukraine war, which has drained their resources.
The current exchange promises to be a long-drawn battle of attrition even if the USA joins the fight in strength, as other adversarial powers (Russia, China) could jump in too (could be material support only). Russia and China, for their strategic gains, may like to see the USA and West getting embroiled in another conflict, with lesser military support for Ukraine and lesser focus on the Indo-Pacific region and Taiwan. While Israel dominates the Middle East militarily, it is worthwhile pointing out the asymmetric disparity in geographic and population census between the two: Iran has 1.6 million square kilometres and 88 million, Versus Israel’s 22,000 square kilometres and 9.4 million. Size matters even in a non-contact, attrition war.
A New Paradigm for Israel
Israel, so far, has been dominant in all previous wars, with the civilian population bearing minimal cost. It is fast changing. Does Israel and its populace have the stomach for an enduring, painful war? Can she last till she attains her strategic goal (prevent Iran from going nuclear, regime change) in a quick timeframe? The longer it takes, the stronger Iran will get, and Israel correspondingly weaker. As of now, it does appear that Netanyahu has miscalculated, and Iran may yet turn out to be a land too far, especially if she goes it alone.
USA Joins Battle by Bombing Nuclear Facilities
US President Donald Trump announced on 22 June, early morning Indian time, that the American military has completed strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran (Natanz, Isfahan, Fordow), marking a significant escalation in the ongoing war between Iran and Israel. “Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight was the most difficult of them all by far, and perhaps the most lethal,” the president said in a brief televised address to the American people. “But if peace doesn’t come quickly, we will go to those other targets with precision, speed and skill.” We do not now know the full scale of the damage at the facilities.
Israeli officials say they were in “full coordination” with the US in planning these strikes. According to Iranian officials and some media reports, including Col. Macgregor, Fordow had been emptied months prior. Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, says Iran had been anticipating the US attack on Fordow. “The site has long been evacuated and has not suffered any irreversible damage in the attack,”
Mohammadi wrote in a social media post. “Two things are certain: First, knowledge cannot be bombed, and second, the gambler will lose this time.” President Trump is sure to face some repercussions internally for his actions, especially from the Democrats and Arab groups. Jamal Abdi, the president of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), says the US strikes on Iran underscore that Trump’s pledge to avoid military intervention in foreign wars, dubbed “America First”, was false. “I think, on the one hand, a lot of us feel played by Donald Trump. We should have known from his first term what his instincts were, and we should have tried to box him in. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has described the US attacks on Iran as a “dangerous escalation”, warning that the conflict in the Middle East could quickly get “out of control”.
The Actual Bombing
The American bomb is called the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). It weighs 13,000kg (30,000lb) and can penetrate about 18m of concrete or 61m of earth before exploding; and is delivered by a B2 strategic bomber, according to experts. Fordo tunnels are thought to be 80m to 90m below the surface, so the MOP is not guaranteed to be successful, but it is the only bomb that could come close. US officials have confirmed to CBS that MOPs were used in the strikes, with two for each target struck.
Prognosis
Even if the USA joins in and manages to destroy the nuclear facilities, including Fodrow, the same questions remain: will Iran stop her nuclear weapon quest, and will the people of Iran rise to challenge the Regime? One aspect appears quite certain to me: Iran will be more determined than ever to go nuclear once this confrontation dies down so that she is never subjected to this form of geo-political bullying. The attrition war between Israel and Iran continues and is unlikely to end any time soon.
How Could Iran Respond
Iran stands considerably weakened in the last eight days of conflict, as also her proxies are no longer what they were (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis). Iran had warned that it would target US bases in the region in retaliation. The US operates military sites across at least 19 regions in the Middle East, including Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Among the most obvious targets for Iran is the US Navy’s 5th Fleet HQ at Mina Salman in Bahrain.
Iran could also target the critical shipping route by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and through which 30% of the world’s oil supply is transported. It could also attack other sea routes that risk destabilising global markets. Iran could also target the assets of nearby countries it perceives to be aiding the US, which risks the war spilling over to the entire region. She will, in all likelihood, allow her proxies (though considerably weakened) to operate freely against Israeli and US interests, forces and infrastructure. Hezam al-Asad, a member of the Houthi Yemeni group’s political bureau, has issued a brief warning to the US in a social media post. “Washington must bear the consequences,” he wrote.
Are we Staring at Escalation Leading to World War III
The world is already turbulent, and a long, attritional war involving global powers will certainly exacerbate the situation, with escalation being a very high probability. Pakistan, with its geo-strategic location and long-term affiliation with the USA, is determined to exploit the war to its advantage (it may yet annoy China, its strategic master), a possibility that India must factor in. Finally, war exhaustion is not an option in a nuclearized world (history has proved that even small nations with limited resources can fight), but a saner world with mature, visionary, statesmanlike leadership is the key to stopping this dangerous Iran-Israel-USA war. An escalating situation has serious implications for India, affecting the energy supply chain, the millions of working members of the Indian diaspora, and the security of the Indo-Pacific region. India, as a friendly, mature, and non-hegemonic regional power, is well-positioned to initiate the process and must proactively play the role of a peace broker and deal-maker.
Lt Gen PR Kumar (Retd)
