Crisis In The Gulf: India’s Strategic Trilemma

In this week’s Defence Mantra, we unpack India’s toughest geopolitical challenge in years—and how it may shape New Delhi’s next big moves.

As tensions escalate in the Middle East, India finds itself walking a diplomatic and strategic tightrope. With nearly one crore or over 9 million Indians living in the Gulf, the region is not just a labour market—it’s a lifeline. Nearly 50% of India’s remittances come from the GCC countries. If conflict erupts, especially involving Iran and the U.S., the consequences for India’s diaspora safety, economy, and energy security could be catastrophic.

India imports more than 85% of its crude oil, half of which comes from the Gulf and Iraq. A conflict could choke the Strait of Hormuz, trigger Houthi attacks on shipping lanes, and send oil prices soaring. In such a scenario, India’s strategic autonomy will be severely tested—especially with deep investments in Iran’s Chabahar port and the North-South Transport Corridor.

The situation is complicated further by China’s growing presence in Eurasia, US-Iran hostilities, and recent overtures between Pakistan’s military and Washington. New Delhi faces a complex trilemma: safeguarding its diaspora, ensuring energy flows, and maintaining strategic neutrality—all under the looming threat of nuclear escalation.