Editor’s Note
The Ukraine War has led to divergences among established groups and also greater cohesion among some old partners. NATO countries struggle to get Trump to endorse a common stance and retain its huge US contribution to the war effort. At the other end we have the North Koreans fighting shoulder to shoulder with the Russians. The Russians are also leaning more and more on China. How is the world poised to respond and reorient, under the circumstances?
Russia Says ‘Enough Is Enough’, Invades Ukraine
On 24 Feb 2022 exactly three years back, Russia invaded Ukraine as a Special Operation, along the entire Ukrainian front. The attack, though expected, caused outrage and was universally condemned, including at the United Nations. However, one cannot but note that out of 181 nations that voted for, five voted against, and 35 abstained on the resolution condemning Russia. India abstained, but concurrently stated that attacking the sovereignty of another nation is not acceptable. The world appreciated PM Modi’s advice to Putin on the sidelines of the Tashkent SCO Summit saying, “I know that today’s era is not an era of war…”.
Breaking News on Ukraine
On 19 February, 2025 US President Donald Trump denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “dictator”, and blamed him for attacking Russia, and warned he had to move quickly to secure peace or risk losing his country. US special envoy to the Middle East (now expanded to Ukraine), Steve Witkoff told CNN’s ‘State of the Union’ on Sunday 23 February, 2025 that, “The war didn’t need to happen. It was provoked. It doesn’t necessarily mean it was provoked by the Russians.” He reiterated, “There were all kinds of conversations back then about Ukraine joining NATO. That didn’t need to happen. It basically became a threat to the Russians”.
The same day, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said it was “fair to say it’s a very complicated situation”, and Trump officials publicly declined to characterize Russia as the provocateur in its war against Ukraine. Jeffrey Sachs (an internationally renowned American economist and public policy analyst) has been saying it all along, and shocked the EU Parliament on 23 February by blaming USA squarely for the events leading to Ukraine War, and the EU for tamely following the US lead. Negotiations between USA and Russia to end the war; without Ukraine and EU participation, are ongoing in Riyadh, and both have expressed satisfaction on the direction of the talks.
European Geo-Politics Upended
It is known to the rest of the World, except Western Europe, that Europe was no longer the centre of the World. The USA has been signaling that for some time, but Trump 2.0 has officially confirmed it. The pivot to Asia has been concretised by USA throwing NATO and Ukraine under the bus. It is especially ironic, because as early as mid 1990s when NATO started its Eastwards expansion, it was USA which started the bipolar great game of subduing/neutralizing Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. US was secure in its cocoon of being a unipolar hegemonic power; and Europe played along.
It is a well-documented fact that EU and USA had categorically stated that they will NOT expand NATO Eastwards; but instead kept creeping East and signaled the distinct possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. President Zelensky of Ukraine became the puppet dancing to their tune, and for mainly personal aggrandizement encouraged the move and took concrete steps towards it.
Current Operational Situation of the War
Source: Institute for the Study of War
A Strategic Military Overview of the War
Three years since Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia occupies roughly 20 percent of the country after gaining approximately 112250 Sq. km of territory till end 2024; mainly East of Dnieper River, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Mariupol Oblasts/Provinces. Ukraine, in a bold and surprising counter-offensive, has occupied roughly 1000 Sq. km of Russian territory in the Kursk oblast. These Ukrainian troops, remain surrounded by Russian forces. Privately Ukraine commanders admit that this manoeuvre is a strategic failure, and has proved costly in men and material. Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities, while Ukraine maintains drone attacks on Russian ships and military vehicles.
Since January 2022, Ukraine has received about $407 billion in aid, including over $118 billion from the USA, with clear indications of donor fatigue. Fighting and air strikes have inflicted over 40,000 civilian Ukrainian casualties, while four million people are internally displaced, and 6.8 million have fled Ukraine. 14.6 million people need humanitarian assistance. Ukrainian military casualty figures vary wildly, and are expected to be as much as Russia. Russian casualties are estimated to be 160,000–165,000 Russian soldiers, officers, contract troops, mobilized personnel, and other fighters have been killed since February 2022 .
While the Russian economy is under severe strain, they have surprised the West by their resilience, and its war ‘economic and industrial’ machine is at full momentum compared to the entire NATO countries combined, in terms of armaments, munitions, and war like stores production.
EU and NATO Response
The Europeans are outraged and caught totally off guard. They are scrambling to decide ‘how to respond and what to do’. Hectic meetings and parleys between European leaders and with Trump administration including President Trump are ongoing. For too long they have sailed under the US security umbrella, and are neither prepared militarily, logistically and even economically to join combat against Russia directly.
However, there is fair amount of grandstanding going on. They feel that USA is pre-emptively ceding fundamental and long-held positions to Russia in the hope of ending a war it is not fighting; making the situation more untenable and unstable for them. They believe that this will be the green signal for Russian hegemony and expansionism into Europe, sooner rather than later. IISS in their referenced paper call it a ‘strategic surrender’, and an ‘orderly capitulation … to obtain some political concession’. Currently, EU and NATO are at their wits end trying to evaluate their options and response both diplomatically, geo-politically and most vitally, militarily.
Transactional Trump
It is vintage transactional Trump at his best; keep his campaigning promise of resolving the Ukraine and Gaza Wars as also transact the optimal deal for USA as part of MAGA (Make America Great Again). Not only will he negotiate a grand rapprochement with Russia, force Europe to take care of its own security, thus saving on military involvement (pull out US troops) and security guarantees saving billions of dollars.
By extending friendly overtures to Putin, Trump hopes to drive a wedge in well cemented Russia-China ties, and creates wherewithal and opportunity to pivot to Asia and specifically China. It also provides him an opportunity to explore new trade and investment opportunities globally. With Ukraine, Trump has announced the end of aid, and reportedly threatened to cut the essential Starlink satellite link while demanding access to mineral wealth on onerous terms.
To the utter dismay of EU leaders, Trump has announced the second round of talks with Russia starting 25 Feb at Riyadh. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the two sides have broadly agreed to pursue three goals: to restore staffing at their respective embassies in Washington and Moscow, to create a high-level team to support Ukraine peace talks, and to explore closer relations and economic cooperation.
Putin the Grand Strategist
Amidst all this, Putin it seems ‘is laughing all the way to the bank and geo-strategic victory’. To be sure, this is just the beginning of fairly long-drawn-out negotiations. However, Russia would be happy if it retains the land East of River Dnieper (specifically Luhansk and Donetsk oblast), gets a formal guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, and no European peacekeepers will be deployed in Ukraine (Putin has categorically refused European presence in Ukraine). Officially, a Russian diplomat told the RIA news agency that “Russia wants a long-term peace deal over Ukraine that tackles what it regards as the root causes of the conflict and not a quick US backed ceasefire” . This would also create opportunities for geo-political and economic domination of Europe, and resurgence of Russian power.
An Uncertain Global Re-alignment
In an interesting ironical twist, the oft quoted statement by Kissinger about America that “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal”, holds even more true for President Trump. However, one feels that both in the case of the Gaza and Ukraine war, he has given them a lot of thought, and beyond the brinkmanship and grandstanding lies a global strategic vision, which will enrich USA geo-politically and economically, and will also extend American hegemony globally. In this transactional blitzkrieg, Trump hopes to shake up the world to USA’s advantage, and if in the process it stops ongoing wars and conflicts; it will leave a Trumpian stamp on the world stage.
Trump 2.0 has unleashed a barrage of actions, tariffs, aspirations and announcements including hegemonic (Canada, Greenland, Panama Canal), which will certainly accelerate the ongoing geo-political flux globally. Only time will tell what actually transpires, specifically the Ukraine war. India a growing balancing power, can find many opportunities to develop and grow into a confident middle power, in this world of Trumpian flux.
Lt Gen PR Kumar (Retd)
