A critical shortage of artillery ammunition reportedly undermines Pakistan’s military preparedness, prompting alarm among strategic and intelligence circles. The issue was discussed during a high-level briefing on May 2 in Pakistan, according to local sources. Intelligence assessments shared at the meeting warned that Pakistan’s current stockpiles may sustain just four days of high-intensity warfare—raising serious doubts about its capacity to endure a full-scale conventional conflict.
Export-Led Depletion
The root of the crisis lies in Pakistan’s decision to prioritize arms exports over domestic readiness. Since early 2022, amid heightened global demand for munitions due to the Russia-Ukraine war, Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) in Wah Cantt ramped up production and export of artillery shells, rockets, and other munitions. It is reported Pakistan supplied Ukraine with over 230,000 artillery rounds between February and March 2023, primarily via third-party logistics hubs in Europe and the Middle East.
Some unverified reports have even suggested that ammunition shipments may have reached Israel through intermediaries, though this remains unconfirmed by official sources.
While the exports reportedly earned Pakistan hundreds of millions of dollars, the financial windfall has come at a strategic cost. The same weapons platforms central to Pakistan’s defence doctrine—such as 155mm howitzers and 122mm multiple rocket launchers—now face severe supply shortages, hollowing out operational readiness.
A Four-Day War Capacity
Military observers now warn that Pakistan’s capacity for sustained combat is alarmingly low. “Their ammunition reserves can sustain only about 96 hours of intense fighting,” said a senior intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information. “Pakistan’s artillery-heavy doctrine is now unsustainable without a viable munitions reserve.”
This concern is especially acute for systems such as the Chinese-origin SH-15 155mm self-propelled howitzer, the U.S.-supplied M109 series, and the Soviet-era BM-21 Grad rocket launchers. Defence sources suggest many of these platforms are now under-equipped and, without urgent replenishment, may be rendered ineffective in the event of an escalation.
Economic Constraints and Logistical Gaps
Pakistan’s economic crisis has worsened the situation. With inflation hovering above 20%, a severely devalued rupee, and critically low foreign reserves, the government struggles to fund emergency procurement or ramp up domestic production.
Routine military training has been scaled back due to fuel and equipment shortages, and arms procurement programs have been delayed, according to a report by Dawn. Former Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa had previously acknowledged that Pakistan lacked the financial depth to support prolonged military operations—a reality now exacerbated by strategic miscalculations.
Profits over Preparedness
Domestically, criticism has intensified over the military’s decision to prioritize exports. Arms sales ballooned to $415 million in FY 2022–23, according to data obtained by The Express Tribune, marking a nearly 3,000% increase from previous years. Yet, insiders claim that as much as 80% of the export revenues were absorbed by senior military leadership or diverted to non-combat expenditure.
“This is a classic case of short-term profit undermining long-term security,” said a retired Pakistani military official, who declined to be named. “You can’t fire profits. You need shells.”
Strategic Fallout and Indian Advantage
In an effort to plug the gap, Pakistan has reportedly constructed new ammunition storage sites along the eastern border, according to intelligence sources. However, analysts note that the facilities are of limited value without sufficient stockpiles.
Meanwhile, India has significantly expanded its own defence acquisitions, securing large volumes of artillery systems, UAVs, and advanced ammunition under its multi-year modernization plan. The disparity, experts warn, is widening the military gap and weakening Pakistan’s deterrence posture.
Urgency without Capacity
The May 2 intelligence briefing reportedly concluded with a call for urgent recovery strategies, including fast-tracked procurement and domestic ramp-up by POF. However, logistical constraints, supply chain disruptions, and ongoing IMF conditions will likely delay any meaningful recovery.
As tensions simmer in the region, the question remains whether Pakistan can rearm in time to avert a deeper strategic crisis.
Ravi Shankar
Dr Ravi Shankar has over two decades of experience in communications, print journalism, electronic media, documentary film making and new media.
He makes regular appearances on national television news channels as a commentator and analyst on current and political affairs. Apart from being an acknowledged Journalist, he has been a passionate newsroom manager bringing a wide range of journalistic experience from past associations with India’s leading media conglomerates (Times of India group and India Today group) and had led global news-gathering operations at world’s biggest multimedia news agency- ANI-Reuters. He has covered Parliament extensively over the past several years. Widely traveled, he has covered several summits as part of media delegation accompanying the Indian President, Vice President, Prime Minister, External Affairs Minister and Finance Minister across Asia, Africa and Europe.
