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The long-brewing storm in the Middle East has now erupted into open conflict. In the early hours of Friday morning, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) confirmed a preemptive, precision offensive targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Dozens of Israeli Air Force jets struck multiple military and nuclear-linked targets deep inside Iranian territory. A national state of emergency has been declared in Israel, and retaliation from Iran is widely expected.
The IDF stated unequivocally:
“Weapons of mass destruction in the hands of the Iranian regime are an existential threat to the State of Israel and to the wider world… The State of Israel has no choice but to act in defence of its citizens.”
What was once speculation is now a hard reality: a direct Israel-Iran military confrontation is underway. But for India, this is not a distant geopolitical flashpoint. It is a moment of reckoning — one that exposes India to energy shocks, regional instability, and renewed pressure from Washington to tolerate a resumption of U.S.-Pakistan military ties.
What the Israel-Iran War Means for India
This conflict may be halfway across the world, but its aftershocks will hit Indian shores — economically, diplomatically, and strategically.
- Energy Security in Jeopardy
Oil markets have already reacted. The Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world’s oil flows — could become a warzone. Even a temporary disruption will send oil prices soaring past $100 per barrel. For India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, this translates to surging inflation, trade imbalances, and pressures on fiscal stability.
- Diaspora in Harm’s Way
More than 9.5 million Indians live and work across the Gulf. Any regional escalation involving Iranian proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, or Yemen — or missile strikes near U.S. bases in the Gulf — could turn India’s migrant population into collateral casualties.
- Strategic Assets at Risk
India’s hard-earned investment in Iran’s Chabahar port and its access to Central Asia via the International North-South Transport Corridor could be derailed if Tehran turns to China and Russia as fallback partners. A deeper Sino-Iranian axis would further squeeze India’s geostrategic space.
“With Israel’s strike now a reality, we are staring at a regional conflagration, not a limited military exchange,” warns former Ambassador Anil Trigunayat. “This won’t stop at nuclear sites — retaliatory strikes, proxy escalations, and widespread instability will follow. For India, the twin challenges of ensuring the safety of over 9 million citizens in the Gulf and managing a severe energy shock are no longer hypothetical — they are urgent operational imperatives.”
US-Pakistan Rapprochement: The Return of a Risky Equation
As the war unfolds, Washington has begun to re-engage Islamabad — a move laden with consequences for India.
Former Indian Army officer Lt Col Manoj Channan (Retd) notes:
“The U.S. has reached out to Pakistan’s military leadership, likely seeking logistical access and overflight rights. This isn’t just contingency planning — it’s strategic recalibration.”
This is not unfamiliar territory. In past crises, Pakistan leveraged its geography for U.S. military operations — while continuing to shelter terror infrastructure that destabilized India. The same risks now return with greater urgency.
- Will Pakistan rein in its terror proxies while hosting U.S. forces again?
- Will the West again ask India to “show restraint” while its own forces operate from Pakistani soil?
History offers clear answers. No, and yes.
Strategic Restraint Redux? India Must Not Be Cornered Again
India’s security calculus could soon be complicated by external pressure to stay passive. If Washington leans on India to de-escalate tensions with Pakistan — as it did after the 2001 Parliament attack or the 2019 Balakot airstrikes — it could embolden Islamabad and leave India strategically sidelined.
“The new U.S.-Pakistan warmth is not symbolic. It serves a military purpose — one that risks marginalising India in both West Asia and Af-Pak equations,” warns an expert.
India’s Strategic Imperatives: Don’t Just React — Reposition
This war is not India’s choice. But the costs will be India’s to manage if it fails to recalibrate in time.
India must now:
- Strengthen regional energy partnerships, particularly with Gulf countries and energy exporters like Russia.
- Bolster security guarantees for the Indian diaspora through rapid deployment evacuation plans.
- Reassert its red lines to Washington: U.S. reliance on Pakistan must not come at the cost of Indian security.
- Secure its western front — increased proxy activity from Pakistan-backed groups cannot be ruled out if Islamabad feels emboldened.
A New Chapter in West Asia, a Critical Test for India
The Israeli strikes mark the beginning of a new, volatile chapter in West Asia. As Iran prepares to respond and the U.S. seeks regional partners for its operations, Pakistan is back in play — and India may again be asked to look the other way.
That can no longer be acceptable.
India must now choose: Will it remain a passive observer or assert its place as a regional power with interests too large to ignore?
Strategic clarity — not diplomatic courtesy — must now define New Delhi’s choices.
Huma Siddiqui/Ravi Shankar
Dr Ravi Shankar has over two decades of experience in communications, print journalism, electronic media, documentary film making and new media.
He makes regular appearances on national television news channels as a commentator and analyst on current and political affairs. Apart from being an acknowledged Journalist, he has been a passionate newsroom manager bringing a wide range of journalistic experience from past associations with India’s leading media conglomerates (Times of India group and India Today group) and had led global news-gathering operations at world’s biggest multimedia news agency- ANI-Reuters. He has covered Parliament extensively over the past several years. Widely traveled, he has covered several summits as part of media delegation accompanying the Indian President, Vice President, Prime Minister, External Affairs Minister and Finance Minister across Asia, Africa and Europe.
