Editor’s Note
A few unique concepts; essentially an explorer’s journey, is the content and context of this article. Humanising Assets, Human Machine Interface, Information the Future High Energy Material, AI the Information Atomic Bomb form the core of the article’s debate. Ukraine and the huge panorama of lessons it throws up only serves as a backdrop; going beyond is the focus of the author.
Superior force, by standard measures, did not win. The number that truly counted was the one that revealed a tank’s likely longevity. Counting tanks before the war was a necessary but insufficient exercise. It didn’t tell you what you needed to know for assessing the net strength of each side in the conflict. What impressed me about the ’73 war was how asymmetric it was. Israel was not only much better prepared to recover and repair its tanks, it also dominated the battlefield, making recovery possible. — Andrew Marshal’s Lessons in Yom Kippur Arab Israel War 1973
When Marshall and his analysts looked at the Soviet Union’s capacity for repairs, they found that the U.S. had a distinct and meaningful advantage. The bulk of the Soviet forces were composed of conscripts, young men compelled to serve for two years in the army or three in the navy. Most were poorly trained and lacking technical know-how. American soldiers conversely were given better, longer and more specialized training. Each U.S. unit working on ships or aircraft contained men able to perform some repairs when necessary. — Andrew Marshal’s Lessons in Net Assessment & Strategic Forecasting
Preamble
Russia-Ukraine War has been unprecedented in history by the sheer stamina in time – beyond a year, and space – localised in Ukraine; with no respite and a possibility of nuclear threat. It is the first post Y2K, and the global communities enabled with the world wide web, mutely spectate the mass destruction in hush wonder. In a dynamic World Order where United Nations has come of age, G 20, G 7 and a large number of friendly most favoured Nation alliances like AUKUS, BRICS and the like are rife, this apathy for a war drawn much beyond a year is reminiscent of a big morass in the global peace and tranquillity assurance support systems.
Obviously, as is evident, the flames of war continue to be stoked by US, NATO for Ukraine and China for Russia. There are many lessons in diplomacy, matured good neighbourly relations, maturity of political leadership, focus on Nation building and infrastructure development, creation of deterrence and continued negotiations/dialogue short of war on the one hand and revamping United Nations through restructuring into an agile organisation for not only ensuring global peace and security but creation of structures for proactive global policing to create war avoidance as a strategy.
On 6 Feb 2023, the 349th Day of the Russia Ukraine War, an earthquake struck Turkey. As per United Nations an estimated 14 million people of Turkey’s population, were affected, about 1.5 million people were left homeless and within less than seven days confirmed death toll stood at 50,399 in Turkey. Like the ongoing war, it has been declared the deadliest earthquake in what is present day Turkey, with damages estimated at US$104 billion. Following the earthquake, international help of more than 141,000 people from 94 countries joined the rescue effort.
An Act of Lord, a natural disaster evoked empathetic response globally is well appreciated. Similar data analytics of the war estimates indicates an estimated 300,000 dead, an equal number grievously injured, 80,00,000 Ukrainians rendered homeless and refugees, Ukrainian major Energy Infrastructure crippled, mass destruction of civilian infrastructure – An Act of Global Leaders, marked by ineffective parlays and, in sheer contrast, global apathy. The moot question is – Can global support, reminiscent during the Turkey earthquake be accorded to the ongoing Russia Ukraine War or Do we await a nuclear or continued holocaust?
The First Lesson – Sarvashaktiman Bharat.
India is a globally acknowledged leader without title in the comity of Nations of substance, and a diplomatic heavy weight. Big ticket global SDGs to include environment friendly initiatives for sustainable development, protection and safeguard of human rights, combatting international terrorism, respecting national sovereignty and promoting peaceful coexistence have always been the focus of India’s foreign policy in international forums. India has also taken up the coveted appointment of Presidency G 20, the most influential global body on 01 India vows that India’s year-long G20 presidency will be “inclusive, ambitious, decisive, and action-oriented”. Given the charisma of PM Modi and his assertion in global forums to encourage an open dialogue on reducing risks posed by weapons of mass destruction thereby ensuring global security. This is an opportunity to muster consensus among like-minded G 20 members to steer end to hostilities by negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, on the one hand, and impress upon US and NATO to layoff and freeze, on the other.
This crusade in the larger good of the warring Nations may be taken to revamp UN SC with a Peace Seven or P7 Group of Nations for a term of five years of which three would be permanent members and four to be voted by all members. P 7 will be the first respondents to defuse the war clouds wherever seen and act as moral police for war avoidance keeping the door of dialogue and negotiations always open. Afterall, irrespective of whatever happens, final outcome of Russian Ukraine War will be through dialogue and negotiations. The intent is to create the end state environment prior to an armed conflict and in a world driven by information, this is the new normal. Steered by India, the first tranche may be UK, France, US, China, India, Japan, Australia and South Korea. Tall order, but given the stature of India’s proactive no nonsense approach foreign policy, this will give India dividends out of proportion.
The Second Lesson – Consortium Approach to Aatmanirbhar Bharat.
Nations build resilient capacities and capabilities through infrastructure development, revamping manufacturing sector through industrial corridors comprising public and private enterprises, OEMs, MSMEs and ancillary low tech support tiers, defence industrial bases to meet long term capabilities for weapon systems and MRO support, agriculture sector, energy needs and integrated services support sector to cater for regular and surge requirements of the Nation during crisis and calamities.
Armed Forces do an in-depth net assessment of combat ratios and brainstorm scenarios for operations and matching logistics support. That said, Russia Ukraine War has huge lessons on the inadequacies of strategic thought and mis-management of infrastructure and allied support for a full scale long drawn war.
In Russia, the Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation established in March 2006 is a permanent functional body responsible for supervising the defence and military affairs. Directly under the President of Russia, the Commission, coordinates and implements programs in concert with Defence Ministry of the Russian Federation, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and the defence industry. Given their focus on defence technology and status as a global net weapon systems provider, Rosoboron, the export wing of Russia has been providing aircrafts, tanks, missile systems globally and providing life cycle sustenance support with Ukraine, Poland and other erstwhile USSR allies.
Ukraine also has developed manufacturing sector with special reference to defence. In fact, the engines of tanks and power packs has been their strong point. On 24 Feb 2022, the date of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military was still dependent on Russian-made military equipment with mutual dependence on technical spares support. That notwithstanding, during war, Ukraine Armed Forces have emerged as a modern, effective fighting force during the course of war due to abundance of technology and equipment support provided by the United States and its NATO allies. It is an apt example on how favourable diplomatic alliance can integrate technologies and weapon systems to create combat superiority by facilitating adaptability and agility.
Global interdependencies in peace time is a huge enabler. This is an opportunity for India to create synergies in gaining the required technology catalysts by creating consortiums for achieving a technological edge and take huge strides to lay strong foundations for Aatmanirbharta and technology sovereignty. With China plus one initiative to create opportunities as a global manufacturing hub, it is time India gears up to have a manufacturing boom in the industrial corridors and lead the technology march with the support of global technology leaders.
Lesson 3 – National Technology Strategy A Gamechanger
National Security Strategy and Technology Strategy are the DNA intertwined as inseparables. Despite being one of the global vanguards in technology and its weaponization, Russia has been found wanting in this long-drawn war, in terms of their technological superiority, employment and sustenance of resources. The Western technologies and weapons in the hands of Ukrainians has created a tech imbalance in favour of Ukraine. Technology forecasting, planning, development and upgrade is a continuous exercise in Nation building and helps in creating disruption, so important in warfare. The war has seen escalated employment of information warfare, cyber warfare and AI.
Technology management must be based on a well thought through technology strategy which should be factored in operational strategy at the macro theatre and operational levels and merging technology with tactics must be the hallmark in the TBA for best impact. All technology strategy for defence has to have a focus on the edge – 5G, 6G, AR, VR, AI, Big Data Analytics, Blockchain for C7I2S2R, Command, Control Communication, Computer, Cyber, Cognition, Combat, Intelligence, Information, Surveillance, Security and Reconnaissance based decision support system (DSS). The key technology drivers for defence preparedness at the edge are lethality, sensor tech and internet of battlefield things, IOT, information, protection, stealth, adaptive camouflage, precision, positioning, automation and autonomy.
Information Warfare. Given the fact that US progressed NATO’s eastward expansion to create an integrate Eastern Europe, the Russia-Ukraine War commenced with an information that Ukraine could be a NATO member to expand proxy war by the West against Russia. As per information analysis, President Putin made Ukraine’s preliminary steps to joining NATO, principal grounds for the Russian invasion of 24 Feb 22. That said, the eastward expansion of NATO particularly inflamed Putin, resulting in the ongoing war.
Multiple Information Scenarios can be brainstormed to target the mind of enemy commanders including political leaders. Explosives and pyrotechnics are classified as high energy materials and account for the net effect of TNT and firepower. Information is the data based high energy material of future warfare. While the OODA loop has always professed information speed and superiority for effective quick decision making, info will be the mainstay of warfare and could sway victory scenarios on how well information is postured in warfare – as an instrument of decision making. In fact, Manoeuvre Warfare is the manifestation of information as an instrument and enabler of future war fighting as much as firepower has been the arsenal and destruction in Attrition Warfare.
AI – The Future Info War Atomic Bomb. Chat GPT 4.0 has brought to the fore the information power of AI. Information powered by AI is double edged like nuclear energy, a peaceful progressive use generates power and aggressive abuse is a lethal bomb. AI is the information atom bomb. The recent news on Serbian – Croatian support for Ukraine and the video of beheading of, a prisoner of war Ukrainian soldier could be faked to create geopolitical fallouts. A large fake news footprint is on the social media and one often finds it difficult to discern false positives. This is going to increase in times to come.
The second World War came to an end within a week of the atomic bomb attack in Japan. The future war may be fought in the info space affecting the people of the Nation, credibility of Nations, economy of Nations and in an ultimate analysis create an information propaganda driven policy paralysis. Powered by info /mis-info, AI has the potential of CBRN disaster. There is a dire need to comprehend the adverse impact of AI and bring in ESG legislation at UN and G 20 levels with each Nation observing the laid down protocols and norms.
A resurgent India on the move has embarked on a three front National development strategy. The First Front is the Make in India, as a precursor to Made in India, the Second Front is Aatmanirbhar Bharat as a call for self-reliance and third Front is Start Up India to champion the agile ignited young minds into entrepreneur ventures. All these coming up concurrently has created an enormous technology and innovation bandwidth, and an excitement in India which has tech reverberations world-wide. Technology strategy must be harnessed through the model of IGMDP – Program Space, Program Cyber, Program AI and Info Warfare, Program Emerging Technologies and Program C7ISR DSS.
Lesson Four – Battlefield Gati Shakti
Once the battle is joined, offensive operations in war by design tend to be intense in consumption and hence replenishment of critical resources – ammunition, missiles, spares and assemblies, FOL, supplies and other resources for defence works to consolidate territorial gains. The fog of war, ad hoc infrastructures and weak lines of communications, vulnerability of feebly guarded logistics supply chains to enemy action and ever-increasing lines of communication resulting in high turn-around time need detailed contingency planning and back up plans for operational effectiveness. Ambitious operational plans will be contingent on well-orchestrated op logistics plans.
There have been gross inadequacies in Russian operational planning. The tenuous lines of communication with the progress of operations inhibited the combat potential of the Russian Forces in Ukraine, due to lack of matching logistics stamina. Russian Forces were found wanting as they carried the offensive beyond the Russian borders into Ukraine. Lack of basic food resupply of troops resulted in mass plundering of meagre local resources causing problems in good order and military discipline. Replenishment of ammunition and missiles could not happen intime resulting in frequent logistics pause. The FOL refill supply and even the load carrier vehicles were woefully short to meet op logistics requirements and the turnaround time was inordinately high to sustain the large combat force. Russian Forces appeared unprepared for the war beyond their borders into the depths of Ukraine.
Victory is measured by the advance of foot soldiers, and Army marches on its belly are age old home truths. The crux of war fighting and victory in the TBA is to a great measure soldier dependent. Hence, guaranteeing logistics support to the troops on ground is of paramount importance in war. Soldier readiness comprises sustenance support to troops on the edge in tactical battle area with food, water, other supplies and ammunition, clothing based on the climatic conditions, billets for rest and refit, timely medical attention leading to casualty evacuation based on the nature of casualty and also communication with families back home whenever there is a lull; to name a few big tickets. There is also a need to cater for labour in the TBA, displaced civilians, soldier stragglers and prisoners of war which puts additional burden on logistics.
Gati Shakti India the multifaceted National Master Plan complemented by roll out of 5G, eGovernance initiatives under Digital India, UDAN-RCS, BharatNet, Ayushman Bharat are some big-ticket programs which has given a technological dominance globally and promoted ease of living in India. These local for global outreach programs and many more have created ripples globally but the impact has yet to be felt in the Armed Forces Information and Decision Support System. There are obviously some dots that need to be connected to create a net centric enabled Armed Forces.
Lesson Five– Technology Transition Management & Combat Force Regeneration
Russia has been a global arms and weapon systems supplier and net exporter driven by Rosoboron. Ukraine started with a large amount of equipment of their own and Russian equipment which were antiquated in technology. However, as the war progressed the support from US and NATO countries changed not only the technology thresholds but also gave Ukraine adequate combat potential to blunt Russian offensive, notwithstanding the initial Russian superiority in numbers.
This real time induction of technology by Ukraine has been a challenge in technology absorption and training of users and maintenance personnel, which require in depth knowledge and more expertise. This technology upgrade in war has been a major uphill task for maintenance agencies of Ukraine, adversely affecting optimal exploitation. Russian Armed Forces, also epitomise mismanagement of resources, poor op logistics and contingency planning, lack of logistics support on the edge despite a formidable technology, adequate supplies in the hinterland and a robust industrial base. In effect, in this crisis, Russia has demonstrated lack of adequate foresight, planning and professional incompetence at all levels of command to orchestrate war effort and Ukraine the challenges of high-tech weapon induction in real time.
Equipment Readiness defines the operational effectiveness of combat formations and units. The management of technology transition was a weakness demonstrated by Ukrainian Forces and Russians displayed a sub optimal combat force regeneration (CFR) of military equipment. The repair and maintenance cover has been inadequate for want of adequately trained manpower, gross shortages in spares support, specialised tools and test equipment in the tactical battle area.
Timely repair, major interventions and maintenance in situ, as far forward as possible ensures equipment sustenance support. The pillars of equipment support comprise of skilled trained manpower, availability of specialised tools and test equipment, essential infrastructure and spares. Total quality equipment management guarantees that the right equipment is at the right place at the right time in the right condition. The Corps of EME must be prepared for effective CFR in war.
In this regard, combat ratio at the beginning of war is a necessary condition but not sufficient, combat force regeneration is a necessary and sufficient condition for maintaining combat superiority. It is not teeth to tail ratio but CFR which is the most appropriate matrix as a key performance indicator; KPI in war. It brings to the fore a major lesson in strategic planning that Combat Ratios are essential reasonable matrix during peace time, but in war the matrix that is necessary and sufficient is the ability to sustain high combat ratios through combat force regeneration. This was also the lesson learnt in the Yom Kippur War 1973, as highlighted in the quote by Andrew Marshal Net Assessment, stated as a preamble to this article. There is a need to factor management of technology transition and CFR in war by generating best practices and good planning in peace. The Army Technology Centre and Corps Technology Centres were created with this precise intent and must be revamped. Formations and Units would do well in case all troops (all ranks) undergo a formal annual technology and technical inoculation for better technology absorption in line with annual medical examination and annual battle inoculation.
Lesson Six – Humanising Assets for Condition Monitoring
A sequel to effective CFR is creating systems enabled with sensors and IoT for effective human machine interface (HMI). The technology facilitates Humanising Weapon Systems Assets which can monitor health and indicate areas of potential failures well in time, just like humans. Torsional Vibration Sensor with HMI, as an example can give precise condition of engines and complete power pack. The age-old problem of Armoured Fighting Vehicles engine residual life and fear of failure prior to major exercises and military operations, often results in periodic and preventive maintenance, change of engines prematurely for wan of precise information. This becomes a huge maintenance exercise prior to deployments, major cost centre and the confidence in the AFV continues to be a cause for concern of commanders at all levels.
A torsion vibration sensor with HMI will give a clear green zone indicating no intervention, amber zone giving a lead time to organise maintenance resources and a red zone for actual repair / replacement intervention. This technology for humanising Weapon System Assets for condition monitoring is the hallmark of reliability centric mission planning and a major departure to predictive prescriptive maintenance from the erstwhile periodic preventive maintenance. The tardy CFR observed in Russian Ukraine War specially by Russian Forces adversely affected operational stamina, progress of offensive, prolonged operations and of course morale of troops.
Humanised Weapon System Assets and Human Machine Interface is the best way forward – an idea the time for which is arrived. Indian Armed Forces must take steps to upgrade legacy critical equipment with condition monitoring systems for effective CFR. This shall ensure mission oriented integrated battle groups, Air Force and naval Missions are well poised for a sustained seamless offensive. The cost prohibitive periodic preventive maintenance would be replaced by cost effective reliability centric predictive prescriptive maintenance.
Conclusion
Russia – Ukraine War is a long drawn conventional yet hybrid war and portrays plausible scenarios in a future of warfare. The wars in future will place huge demands on Combat Forces to be better organised as a net centric force with an integrated C7I2S2R (Command, Control, Communication, Computer, Cyber, Cognition, Combat, Intelligence, Information, Surveillance, Security and Reconnaissance) based decision support system, well organised and enmeshed operational logistics with drones on the edge in the TBA, adequately organised integrated battle groups / combat missions with embedded combat force regeneration capabilities and capacities to be able to integrate them into a coherent Tri Service military operations.
War is a whole of Nation Approach supported by friendly Nations specially when it comes to war stamina and logistics support. The importance of logistics becomes profound in war with the multi-faceted surge needs specially when it comes to long drawn multi-dimensional campaigns, as is being witnessed in the Russia Ukraine War. The major challenges, therefore, the key drivers for seamless uninterrupted integrated sustenance support comprise soldier readiness, equipment readiness, stamina for effective and efficient supply chain to support operational plans and deployment of enabling technologies. The lessons learnt are pertinent and graze the complete spectrum from strategic, operational and tactical levels, The future battle space requires Tri Services integration with cyber, space and info war for automated and autonomous operations – opportunity beckons.
LT GEN DR ANIL KAPOOR AVSM, VSM (RETIRED)
