There has been an undeniable attempt at increasing terrorist activities in Jammu and Kashmir, as compared to the situation not too long back. Pakistani Army, possibly, had to take its eye off the ball, with former Prime Minister Imran Khan posing a threat to them. Even after the polls, Islamabad tottered without a clear majority. Such an ambiguous situation had arisen even after Imran had been rendered non-functional by being incarcerated. However, having stitched a coalition by coercion and dubious means, the Army could put the semblance of a democratically elected government in place as it continued to pull the strings from behind.
However, amidst the political turmoil that had shaken the country prior to the polls, another significant change was starkly evident in Pakistan: the erosion of the Pakistani people’s faith in their Army. As the Army’s capabilities came under scrutiny, the old strategy had to be revisited, leading to a shift in focus towards the Indian side of the Line of Control. The general elections presented a tempting opportunity for the Pakistani Army to instigate trouble in J&K. The potential for disruptive activities loomed large. With local elections in the Union Territory drawing near, the likelihood of such activities is not unexpected. The question that lingers, however, is whether Pakistan is truly succeeding in its endeavours.
Spurt in Terrorism in Jammu Region
There has been a concerning increase in terrorist activities in the Jammu region, with twenty-six attacks occurring since 2019, five of which have taken place in just a little over a month. These attacks have resulted in the tragic deaths of 10 civilians and 1 CRPF jawan, along with injuries to more than 40 civilians and 7 SF jawans. The recent attacks include:
- Attack on an Air Force vehicle on 4th May
- Attack on a pilgrim bus near Shiv Khori in Reasi on 9th June
- Attack in Hiranagar, Kathua on 11th June
- Attack on an army post in Chattargala on Bharwah-Pathankot road on the night of 11th June
- Attack on an SOG vehicle at Gundoh in Doda 12th June
When analysed, the sudden increase in terror attacks provides insight into a new strategy adopted by the Pakistan Army. The success of our forces in anti-terror operations also provides a few indicators:
- Jammu has been specifically targeted instead of Kashmir. There are instructions to the groups operating in J&K to keep Kashmir peaceful.
- Due to dwindling local support, pinpoint information about terrorists has been available in Kashmir, which has led to the killing of terrorist leaders and foreign terrorists in North and South Kashmir recently.
- Information available also indicates that Jaish-e-Mohammed is actively expanding its cadre in Kashmir while shifting its focus towards Jammu. This strategic move indicates a broader plan to destabilise the region in the coming days.
- There is also information on terrorists planning attacks on the Amarnath Yatra in the Jammu region.
It appears that Pakistan’s GHQ/ISI is preparing to intervene in the Assembly elections in J&K. This threat necessitates a comprehensive, targeted anti-terror operation in the run-up to the elections. The situation calls for a unified, synergised security response in the region. However, it is essential to objectively assess the success of Pakistan’s new strategy before implementing a counter-strategy.
The success of Pakistan’s New Strategy is Debatable
It’s essential to go into a few statistics to evaluate the success of Pakistan’s new strategy before one can say that there is a surge in terrorist operations despite the vigilance of army personnel along the fence and anti-terror operations in the hinterland:
- Fatalities exceeding a thousand had continued for 17 consecutive years, between 1990 and 2006.
- In 2001, at the peak of terrorism, 4,021 lives were lost in a single year, averaging nearly 11 fatalities every single day of the year.
- Terrorism-linked fatalities came down from thousands each year to a total of 134 in 2023, of which 87 were terrorists.
- A more proximate comparison is more revealing. Between 1st January and 14th June 2024, a total of 32 fatalities have been recorded in J&K, including 17 civilians, two SF personnel and 13 terrorists. Over the same period in 2023, 39 fatalities were recorded in the Union Territory, including nine civilians, 12 SF personnel, 17 civilians and one in the ‘not specified’ category.
The data makes it clear that notwithstanding Pakistan’s strategy to raise violence levels before the possible elections, there has been barely an appreciable level of success that can be granted to them. However, as the Union Territory gets closer to the elections, the potential threat of increased violence levels looms large. Jaish-e-Mohammed focusing on its recruitment is an obvious precursor to such a strategy being executed. Pakistan’s inability to build its resources adequately in the Valley or the Jammu region, as of this date, is a cause for worry. Indian Army’s counterinsurgency grid, however, retains its potency and bite.
Despite the success of our security forces in containing terrorist activities, the risks army faces in the coming months are substantial. Additional troops must be deployed in J&K to keep terror networks suppressed. Furthermore, if Assembly elections are held, it is imperative that Kashmiris can exercise their right to vote without fear or hindrance.
Team BharatShakti
